MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main card for UFC Noche.
Noche UFC takes place Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The event streams on ESPN+.
Last event’s results: 3-2
Overall picks for UFC main cards in 2023: 93-69-4
Welcome to MMA Junkie’s Quick Picks and Prognostications, where I’ll be giving brief, fight-day breakdowns for UFC main cards.
With that in mind, I hope these write-ups don’t come off as curt or dismissive, as my goal here is to offer quick picks and analysis in a digestible format. All odds listed are provided by FanDuel.
If you’d like more detailed analysis from me, then feel free to check out my weekly show, The Protect Ya’ Neck Podcast.
So, without further ado…
Fernando Padilla (-250) vs. Kyle Nelson (+200)
Kicking off the main card is a featherweight fight between Fernando Padilla and Kyle Nelson that has action written all over it.
Nelson, who looked like he made some real improvements to his pacing last time out, feels like a live underdog in this spot. That said, I find myself semi-reluctantly siding with the speed and striking skills of Padilla.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Nelson mix in some takedowns, but I suspect that the temperature of this fight forces the Canadian to sell out for something early.
I’ll pick Padilla to score a second-round TKO.
Daniel Zellhuber (-270) vs. Christos Giagos (+220)
Filling out the main card is a lightweight attraction between Daniel Zellhuber and Christos Giagos.
Giagos adds to the slew of live dogs across this main card, but I can’t quite seem to pull the trigger when it comes to picking him here.
Aside from the fact that Giagos has shown a propensity to fade in past fights, I also suspect that the size and length differential that Zellhuber brings to the table will be a tall ask for the Kill Cliff FC product.
I’ll pick Zellhuber to win a decision with superior range weapons and striking numbers.
Raul Rosas Jr. (-770) vs. Terrance Mitchell (+540)
Serving as a clear showcase spot is a bantamweight matchup between Raul Rosas Jr. and Terrance Mitchell.
Despite Rosas demonstrating to be as raw as you’d expect an 18-year-old to be, the UFC appears to be doubling down on its Dana White’s Contender Series project. Luckily for them, they seem to have found one bantamweight who could offer Rosas a potential bounce-back.
A former flyweight, Mitchell is the exact type of competitor to give Rosas the fight he’s looking for. Aside from sounding like “Kel” from Good Burger, Mitchell’s propensity to both grapple and give back exposure in scrambles will likely bode badly for “The Ultimate Fighter” alum.
For that reason, I’ll pick Rosas Jr. by first-round submission.
Kevin Holland (+124) vs. Jack Della Maddalena (-146)
The co-main event in Las Vegas features a welterweight showdown between Kevin Holland and Jack Della Maddalena.
Despite not expecting to see Holland as an underdog in this spot, I can understand the line movement Maddalena’s way.
Holland may be the more proven product on paper, but his tendency to play between the cage and inner-black octagon lines could cost him here.
Add in the fact that left hands seem to be Holland’s common culprit standing, and I’ll side with the pressure and multi-layered attacks from Maddalena to produce a stoppage by the second round.
Alexa Grasso (+144) vs. Valentina Shevchenko (-172)
The main event for UFC Noche features a rematch for the women’s flyweight title between Alexa Grasso and Valentina Shevchenko.
As stated in my in-depth breakdown, Shevchenko’s stubborn nature and conservative approaches tend to be more pronounced in rematches (e.g. her fights with Liz Carmouche and Amanda Nunes).
Considering that this will be the first immediate rematch of Shevchenko’s career, the former champion’s dismissive attitude toward adjustments and opponents, in general, bodes badly against a disciplined and determined champion like Grasso.
I’m not sure I’ve ever officially picked against Shevchenko, but I suspect that her grappling attempts and counters come up short against the numbers that Grasso puts up.
The pick is Grasso by unanimous decision.
For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for Noche UFC.
