The United States can expect a favorable spring break from past weather extremes, as federal meteorologists predict a more balanced season ahead. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's spring outlook indicates a warmer and wetter spring, with a reduced likelihood of major flooding and drought at low levels. This forecast offers a welcome respite after recent seasons marked by droughts, floods, and fires.
The spring forecast anticipates no major or record flooding, with regions in the East and Southeast expected to experience nuisance-type flooding that is unlikely to cause significant property damage. Currently, less than a quarter of the country is in drought, with only 0.14% experiencing the highest level of drought, which is notably low according to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.
This outlook is considered a positive development, with the absence of major flooding in regions like the upper Mississippi and Red River areas being particularly noteworthy. The transition from a strong El Nino to a forecast summer La Nina is influencing the weather patterns, with a mild wet pattern expected in the coming months before a potential shift to a hot, dry summer.
However, there are some concerns on the horizon. Flow rates along the lower Mississippi River may decrease towards the end of spring, impacting barge traffic. Wildfire risks remain high in certain areas, including the southern High Plains region. Additionally, the potential for extreme heat, wildfires, and dry conditions persists in the Southwest, lower Southern Plains, Northern Plains, and Upper Mississippi Valley.
While the NOAA forecast does not specifically address tornadoes or severe storms, experts warn of an increased risk this spring due to favorable conditions resulting from a relatively warm winter in the Midwest. This setup could lead to heightened tornadoes, hail, and severe storms in the coming months.
As the nation prepares for the spring season, it is essential to remain vigilant and adaptable to changing weather patterns. The NOAA's insights provide valuable guidance for individuals and communities to stay informed and prepared for potential weather-related challenges in the months ahead.
For more climate coverage, visit AP's climate coverage page.
