Federal forecasters are maintaining their prediction of a highly active Atlantic hurricane season due to near-record sea surface temperatures and the potential influence of La Nina, according to the latest update from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
The NOAA's updated hurricane outlook indicates that atmospheric and oceanic conditions have created a scenario for an exceptionally active hurricane season that could be one of the most active on record. The season began with an early and intense start with Hurricane Beryl, the earliest category-5 Atlantic hurricane on record.
The forecasters have slightly adjusted the number of expected named storms from 17 to 25 to a range of 17 to 24. Among these named storms, 8 to 13 are anticipated to develop into hurricanes with sustained winds of at least 75 mph, including 4 to 7 major hurricanes with winds exceeding 111 mph.
An average Atlantic hurricane season typically produces 14 named storms, seven of which become hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. The hurricane season spans from June 1 to November 30.
The updated outlook already accounts for two tropical storms and two hurricanes that have formed this year. The most recent storm, Hurricane Debby, made landfall on the Gulf Coast of Florida and was still active as a tropical storm in the Carolinas.
Key factors influencing hurricane activity include ocean temperatures in the Atlantic, which provide the energy for storm development, and the presence of La Nina or El Nino conditions in the Pacific Ocean. La Nina tends to enhance Atlantic storm activity while suppressing storm formation in the Pacific. The recent end of an El Nino period, which typically inhibits storms, is expected to be followed by a La Nina phase between September and November, coinciding with the peak of hurricane season.
Despite the presence of El Nino last season, warm ocean temperatures led to an above-average hurricane season with 20 named storms, the fourth-highest count since 1950. The overall intensity, duration, and frequency of storms during the previous season were 17% higher than the historical average.
