The quarterback position is the most important in the world of professional football. He has the ball in his hand on the majority of offensive snaps, and his knowledge, skill set and decision-making ultimately determine how an offense will perform. That also means he’s integral in the production of points for our fantasy teams.
As a result, it makes sense for us to know his tendencies.
What position does he target most in the pass attack? Does he take chances downfield? The answers are important to his draft value and of the value of the players around him. As a result, let’s look at which field generals targeted his offensive weapons the most and the least per skill position during last season.
- QB Target Tendencies: Running Backs | Wide Receivers
In the third of a three-part series, let’s finish things off with the tight ends.
Note: Quarterbacks in this research started a minimum of 10 games last season.
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Tight Ends -- Most Targets
1. Lamar Jackson, Ravens (40.2%): When your top option in the passing game is a tight end, it should come as a shock to no one that Jackson and Patrick Mahomes are the top two quarterbacks on this list. I think this percentage could decline a bit this year for Jackson, though, as the Ravens added Odell Beckham Jr., Zay Flowers and Nelson Agholor. That gives him more than just Mark Andrews in terms of reliable options in the passing game. I also like Jackson to throw more under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken, so Andrews will still see his share.
2. Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs (30.6%): The Chiefs have a future Hall of Famer and fantasy superstar in Travis Kelce, so Mahomes will almost always be near the top of this list. With the loss of JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman in free agency and questions at wide receiver, I could easily see Mahomes surpassing Jackson in terms of pass percentage to the tight end position this season.
3. Marcus Mariota, Falcons (28.3%): The Falcons will continue to run the same offense with new quarterback Desmond Ridder under center, so fantasy fans should see Kyle Pitts play a big role in the pass attack. The problem is, will Ridder offer him more catchable passes? According to Fantasy Points Data, Pitts saw the fewest catchable targets last season among tight ends with at least 50 targets.
4. Jacoby Brissett, Browns (25.7%): Brissett is no longer with the Browns, so let’s look at the offense as a whole. In Deshaun Watson’s six starts, he threw the ball to his tight ends 22.4% of the time. That would have ranked him in the top eight among quarterbacks over a full season. That’s good news for David Njoku on a Browns team that ran 12 personnel the eighth-most times in the league in 2022.
5. Ryan Tannehill, Titans (25.5%): The Titans didn’t have many reliable wideouts last season, leaving Tannehill to throw to his tight ends more often. The addition of DeAndre Hopkins improves the wideout group for 2023, but the veteran should still be looking for his tight ends … most notably, Chigoziem Okonkwo. The second-year player is one of my favorite potential sleepers of the upcoming season.
6. Kenny Pickett, Steelers (25.2%)
7. Dak Prescott, Cowboys (25.1%)
8. Geno Smith, Seahawks (23.8%)
9. Kirk Cousins, Vikings (23.8%)
10. Andy Dalton, Saints (21.7%)
Tight Ends – Least Targets
1. Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins (11%): Looking for a sleeper tight end this season? Chances are you’re not going to find one in Miami. Their offense under coach Mike McDaniel was so void of using the position as pass catchers that it all but made Mike Gesicki unstartable in 2022. Let’s move on, fantasy friends.
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2. Daniel Jones, Giants (12.7%): This percentage is going to do a 180-degree turn this season. And if it doesn’t, the addition of Darren Waller would have been a true failure. The Giants have a group of ho-hum wideouts, so Waller is almost a guarantee to lead the team in targets (if he can avoid injuries). Waller has received really good reviews in camp, so change is coming to the Big Apple.
3. Josh Allen, Bills (13.6%): I’m not sure Allen will see a major move upward in terms of his percentage of targets to tight ends this season, but it should improve. That’s due to the addition of rookie Dalton Kincaid, who is expected to come right in and see a nice role in the offense. The Bills also don’t have much at wideout beyond Stefon Diggs and maybe Gabe Davis (if he can improve over 2022), so Kincaid could turn into the third-best option in terms of pass catchers.
4. Joe Burrow, Bengals (15%): When you have a trio of wideouts like the Bengals, it’s hard for anyone beyond Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd to see a big target total. So, while Irv Smith Jr. has looked good in camp, he does have a bit of a ceiling in terms of his statistical success. Burrow threw the ball to Hayden Hurst 68 times last year, so Smith’s target ceiling is likely around 80-90.
5. Jared Goff, Lions (15.8%): The Lions traded T.J. Hockenson to the Vikings last season. Before he was dealt, Goff threw 20.1% of his passes to tight ends. After the deal, that percentage dropped to 12.7%. Will rookie Sam LaPorta be good enough for Goff to throw to his tight ends at a higher rate in 2023? That’s a good question, though early camp reports suggest LaPorta is looking pretty good.
6. Tom Brady, Buccaneers (16.1%)
7. Derek Carr, Raiders (16.7%)
8. Aaron Rodgers, Packers (17%)
9. Mac Jones, Patriots (17.2%)
10. Matt Ryan, Colts (17.6%)
