There is no toilet paper shortage. Or scarcity of chicken.
But ... you may not be able to get the brand or specific item you want. Spot shortages could surface of various items, such as certain toys. Prices will probably be noticeably higher than last year.
Those are the views of supply chain experts as the nation struggles to balance supply and demand after the COVID pandemic disrupted the nation’s economy. Manufacturers cut back as demand slowed, and are having trouble keeping up with the summer and fall explosion in demand.
“There is truth to the supply chain challenges and delays. There’s no question,” said Scott Rankin, advisory industry leader for consumer and retail at KPMG, a tax, audit and advisory firm.
But, he added, “There’s a lot of product in the US. There’s a lot of product on the way. There’s a lot of product being manufactured.”
What consumers are seeing today are occasionally bare store shelves or “out of stock” notes on online items. They see the ships waiting to unload at ports, and President Joe Biden and Gov. Gavin Newsom vowing to help unclog the system.
They also know there have been supply constraints from time to time. Costco, for instance, last month put limitations on items such as bath tissue and paper towels because of what it calls Delta-related demand, according to a transcript of its fourth quarter earnings call, first reported by The Motley Fool.
No need for alarm, say the experts.
“The world is ending? Not quite. We still have products in the pipeline,” said Christopher Tang, faculty director of the UCLA Center for Global Management. “Consumers need to calm down.”
A combination of factors means prices, which in September rose at their highest 12-month level in 13 years, are likely to continue their relatively steep increases.
One place consumers are likely to see the price impact, said Rankin, is in fewer promotions or coupons this holiday season.
It could take awhile before the supply/demand balance returns to normal. Tang estimated that products needing semiconductors may not see that balance until 2023. That could affect motor vehicles, home appliances and certain toys.
Rankin figured “it will be sometime in 2022 before we see an end to some of this congestion.”
Here are some explanations of where things stand:
Toilet paper
Consumers stocking up will cause obvious problems. But “there is no reason to worry at all. We have a strong supply chain,” said Ronalds Gonzales, co-director of the Tissue Pack Innovation Lab at North Carolina State University, which conducts research to help the tissue and personal care industries.
Chicken
“Yes, supplies are somewhat tight, but I would say it falls short of any shortage,” said Tom Super, senior vice president, communications at the National Chicken Council.
The U. S. Department of Agriculture expects chicken production to be up this year. Super noted that “some products might take longer than usual to get to where they need to be, but in most cases they get there. We’re dealing with the same rise in input costs, labor shortages and trucking challenges as most other industries right now.”
Toys
“Shop early,” advised Adrienne Appell, spokeswoman for the Toy Association.
”For consumers who want that very specific thing they might buy it early in the season. You may have to forego a discount or promotion,” added Rankin.
Don’t expect the usual promotions and markdowns. Most toys sold in this country come from elsewhere, and are subject to the same supply problems as other imported products.
Christmas trees
Artificial trees are having some trouble getting out of ports and, once unloaded, finding trucks to deliver them. Farm-grown trees come from the U.S. and Canada so are not affected by port backups.
Trees will be available, but consumers are advised to get one early so they can get their first choice.
Christmas decorations
Mac Harman, chief executive officer of Balsam Hill, which distributes trees and decor across the country, said ornaments and decorations are likely to be affected.
“If you’re buying decorations I recommend buying them as soon as they come in stock and the price seems good enough,” he said. “Where we are most short are ornaments, wreaths, and angel tree toppers.”
Cars and electronics
Tang estimated that products needing semiconductors may not see that balance until 2023. That could affect motor vehicles, home appliances and certain toys.
Rankin figured “it will be sometime in 2022 before we see an end to some of this congestion.”
