It’s a common joke that the Canadian immigration website crashes the morning after the U.S.’ election day, Christopher Willis, managing partner at global residence provider, Latitude Consultancy, tells Fortune. It’s not unheard of either, as the site crashed when former President Donald Trump won in 2016.
This 2024 presidential race was deemed by some as one of the closest in recent history. As Americans wait with bated breath, some wealthy households scramble for the closest exit. It’s not necessarily a new story: The rich have always found a way to escape danger first, whether it be finding the first life raft out of the Titanic or a second passport to Europe.
Advisors for the rich say no matter which side wins, they expect an increase in applications post-election. Citizenship-by-investment programs have been around for some time now, but gained traction during the early pandemic as rich people looked to retrain their mobility during lockdown. Now, political division is fueling the business for second passports.
“We're expecting a surge of interest, irrespective [of who wins],” said Willis, explaining that before President Biden withdrew from the race, many saw Trump winning the presidency as “a foregone conclusion.” Now, “people are saying, well, let's just wait and see.” Noting there’s been “a bit of a calm before the storm,” Willis still expects “a very busy end of the year.”
David Lesperance, an international tax and immigration advisor working with the ultra-wealthy, has worked for families seeking second residency or citizenship since the 1990s. At first, the first motive was tax-driven, he tells Fortune. But since 2016, there's been a 400% increase in Americans who seek a profession to execute a backup plan—and four out of five of these clients are motivated by “non-tax concerns for the future well-being of their families,” something Lesperance attributes to the increased political polarization over the last two election cycles.
"Americans are engulfed in a political wildfire,” Lesperance said. “Their natural reaction is to fight the political wildfire through voting, lobbying, political donations etc. However, many realize that even with their most earnest firefighting efforts, it is called a wildfire for a reason. That is why they are getting the fire insurance of a second residence or citizenship."
The rich are looking to leave no matter who wins
More than half (53%) of American millionaires tell global citizenship financial advocacy group Arton Capital they plan to leave the U.S. after the election—no matter the result. Younger respondents were most interested in international migration.
“The rising political division at home is prompting many affluent Americans to explore a “Plan B” overseas,” Armand Arton, CEO and chairman at Arton Capital, said, adding that it fuels “unprecedented interest” in said programs. “Economic uncertainty is a common thread, with a majority of both Harris and Trump voters fearing for the future of the economy. This trend is unlikely to abate in the immediate wake of the election.”
Americans across the country are anxious about the state of the election, but rich people are able to execute on their fears and at least have a second option. “Many Americans have a justifiable concern for their family's well-being, but wealthier Americans have the financial means to seek out more options than their average fellow citizen,” Lesperance said, adding “they do not want to live in the society that they fear their political opponents will create."
Trump’s oversized impact on wealthy fleeing America
Billionaires and millionaires back candidates on both sides of the aisle this election cycle, which means the rich might be applying to second-residency programs either way the cookie crumbles. But Trump, perhaps, fuels this phenomenon even more than Harris.
“Trump is probably a little bit more polarizing than Harris,” says Willis, noting most of his clientele is “probably more Democrat, only because a lot of people are worried about Trump having another four years.”
Indeed, Trump’s promises of Project 2025 will likely create an exodus of those that have the resources to leave. “I believe you will see a significant number of affluent Americans immediately move abroad [if Trump wins],” said Lesperance, adding that numbers will likely increase if Trump carries out some of his campaign promises. He added that most Americans looking for a safety net of a second residence are high-net-worth individuals “who simply do not want to live in ‘a MAGA America.’”
Some wealthy people would still leave if Harris wins
Even if Trump is poised to scare away more wealthy Americans if he wins, a Harris presidency could also cause some movement. Some rich people might be concerned about proposals regarding larger taxes, such as a proposed tax on unrealized capital gains, notes Lesperance.
Such a proposal would lead to “numbers of expatriates explod[ing],” he posited. “Although currently proposed to apply to those with a minimum $100 million in net worth, they know that this definition of "wealthy" can easily be changed to a lower figure,” he said of taxation policies backed by Harris.
Then comes the larger disillusionment of the race being so close in the first place, which could still lead to some wealthy people calling it quits or at least looking for another place as a backup. "Even if Kamala Harris wins the US presidency, her supporters know that almost half of their fellow citizens want a MAGA America,” says Lesperance. “The ripping away of the mask of polite society and the exposure of ugliness underneath will still inspire a significant number of Americans to seek solace abroad.”
