Weeks after the Haryana poll results, the assembly elections in Maharashtra and Jharkhand provide yet another provincial setting for a face-off between the two principal national alliances. But pre-poll alliances are grappling with pressures and pulls of seat negotiations.
Be it the Mahayuti or the Maha Vikas Aghadi – the Maharashtra editions of the NDA and the INDIA bloc.
Even after the last day of the filing of nominations, the final distribution of seats among the allies of each bloc isn’t clear. The day of withdrawal will bring that clarity, besides revealing whether the allies will leave some seats for friendly fights. This isn’t entirely unexpected in the largely expedient alliance-making politics in the state. But both blocs realise that the management of alliance politics and its strategic synergy will hold key to what has largely been seen as a bipolar alliance match-up.
The constituents of Mahayuti – the BJP, the chief minister Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena, and the Ajit Pawar faction of the NCP – and those of MVP – the Congress, the Uddhav Thackeray-led faction of Shiv Sena, and the Sharad Pawar section of the NCP – can’t lose sight of the fact that the thin line dividing the convergence and divergence between the political interests of the alliance partners can be decisive for their poll prospects.
This has meant that both the Congress and the BJP are willing to be more accommodating than they would have been in cementing their self-image as the pivots of the respective blocs. In a largely de-ideologised battle and little to choose between the fickle political allegiances of the alliance partners, a slew of strategic considerations will likely shape the campaign and organisational push of each bloc. Some of the signs of the strategic challenges that both alliances face and their responses to them are there to see.
First, the fact that both the alliances have avoided putting a chief ministerial face to their campaign is a blend of both strategy and compulsion. The top leaders of the allies are wary of prior commitments on this count for two reasons. Primarily, this is to ensure that the issue of chief ministership doesn’t derail the alliance with bickerings over rival claims. The other reason is also understandable – the allies want to be open to all post-poll scenarios and the opportunities for the exercise of political leverage that election results might bring for them. These have combined to make both blocs stay clear of turning chief ministership into a deal-breaker in the pre-poll stage and also waiting for numbers to assess their interests.
The BJP, the senior partner in the Mahayuti, had already let go of its claim on chief ministership as a reward for Eknath Sinde for leaving the MVA government and splitting the Shiv Sena to form government with the BJP in 2022. This, however, doesn’t mean that the party will not be keen on the top job if it performs strongly in the polls. But political analysts in the state also argue that the party’s top brass in Delhi has a different view about the former CM and current deputy CM Devendra Fadnavis and might be even thinking of a role for him in the central government. Some see it as a consequence of the party leadership’s internal dynamics, which is resulting in the clipping of the wings of its former CM.
Even if that theory is true and the bloc is doing well in the polls, the BJP is likely to weigh in on the CM question only in light of where the party’s numbers stand vis-à-vis Shinde’s Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar-led faction of the NCP. The party’s leadership, as well as CM Shinde’s party, will be watchful about Ajit Pawar’s party, visibly a weak link in the formation as well as prone to sudden drifts in allegiance.
At the same time, the MVA has left the question of the chief ministerial pick to be settled later. Congress and the Sharad Pawar section of the NCP aren’t willing to give default continuity to the former MVA CM Uddhav Thackeray. The allies aren’t sure of where Uddhav’s party will be placed in the seat tally or about the message that his projection will give to voters. The current CM Shinde has been attacking Thackeray’s tenure as MVA CM as that of “Facebook Live CM’’, accusing him of being disconnected from ground realities and conducting governance in the virtual world of social media like during the pandemic period. For the NCP, the risks of floating names of Jayant Patil or Supriya Sule can risk rival claims within the party as well as upsetting the pre-poll arrangement.
The Congress realises that its claims on leadership, by floating names of leaders like Prithviraj Chauhan, would sow doubts in the minds of allies. In postponing the question of the CM candidate, the MVA is also directing the claims of the allies to post-poll arithmetic. It’s relevant to remember that both the current form of the MVA and the Mahayuti emerged only after the 2019 assembly polls, and as a result of Shiva Sena leaving its pre-poll pact with the BJP to form government as a part of the MVA, and later Eknath Shinde splitting Shiv Sena to form government with the BJP. Ajit Pawar too eventually split NCP to become the third constituent of Mahayuti. This has meant that the post-poll fluidity has acquired new currency in the state.
Second, even if there can be a significant degree of decoupling of the assembly poll scene from the Lok Sabha poll results in June, the two alliances have inferred different messages from the June results to recalibrate their strategy.
The BJP-led Mahayuti has been working on rebuilding its electoral appeal after its LS polls tally fell below expectations. One such damage control exercise, for instance, could be seen in how the BJP leaders are trying to regain support of sections of about 17 percent Dalit in the state. The party is of the view that its voters within Dalit caste groups were misled by the INDIA alliance’s bogey about the BJP’s alleged anti-reservation stand. The saffron party is now reaching out to these sections, like the Mahar caste group, which is largely Buddhist and has traditionally not supported the party. Union minister Kiren Rijiju, a Budhhist himself, has been leading this initiative by trying to dispel misgivings about the party within the community, as he has attended many community meetings organised by the party.
The move to build Samvidhan Bhawan in each district of the state as a mark of respect to Dr BR Ambedkar is another way to reach out to the iconography of this section. To add to that, the BJP is also trying to honour the icons of the Matang caste group, like Annabhau Sathe.
One more puzzle for both the alliances, especially the Mahayuti, is how to politically respond to the demand for the Maratha reservations, which gained some traction in the months leading to Lok Sabha polls under the leadership of activist Manoj Jarange Patil. His efforts to get reservations for the Maratha community within the OBC category haven’t made much headway. All major political parties in the state – the Congress, BJP, or different factions of Shiv Sena and NCP – find such demands politically fraught with risks of backlash from the broader OBC electorate.
But, as the bloc in power, the Mahayuti would have to deal with them and bear the brunt of possible mishandling of the agitation. But, unlike his views about Devendra Fadnavis, Jarange has seemed accommodating about CM Shinde’s approach. The BJP is aware of the losses that Mahayuti suffered in the Marathwada region, a part of which it could attribute to the sway of the demands Jarange has been representing in the region. However, after declaring to be a player in the electoral fray by supporting candidates, Jarange also runs the risk of overplaying his hand, as failure to make electoral inroads can expose his political limitations early on.
Third, another way in which the Mahayuti government is trying to damage-control and make up for the lacklustre performance in the Lok Sabha polls is by rolling out welfare schemes like Ladki Bahin Yojana for women, besides infusion of funds in a wide range of infrastructural projects. It has also meant that the race to claim credit for these programmes can be seen in how the leaders of three key parties of the bloc – the BJP, Shiv Sena, and NCP-Ajit faction – are presenting their party’s contribution. This tactic of building and appealing constituencies of beneficiaries for their parties can come in the way of showcasing the alliance government’s work as a unit. Keeping the flock together in campaign style will be a challenge for Mahayuti, even if these schemes are gaining some popular traction among beneficiaries. To what extent the MVA also presents its share of populist offerings to the electorate will be seen, especially in view of recent trends in the state polls, in which the promise of freebies has gone beyond the welfarist frame and to the realm of “charitable state”.
As the dynamics of alliance politics define the bipolarity of the Maharashtra polls, the intra-management of allies will be as crucial as fighting the rival alliance. Beyond that, the strategies of the alliance partners are likely to be recalibrated in the light of political flux of the last four months as much as the narratives that found electoral use earlier.
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