The Turkish and Greek Cypriot sides, as well as Turkey, Greece, the United Kingdom, and the EU, are set to meet on Monday to discuss the reunification of the Mediterranean island once again.
However, chances for a breakthrough remain low.
The island has remained divided since 1974, when Turkish forces invaded and occupied the northern part of the island.
A few years later, after several failed attempts to resolve the issue, northern Cyprus declared independence. However, it remains only recognised by Turkey.
Western states and much of the international community consider northern Cyprus part of the Republic of Cyprus and support the island’s reunification.
The Republic of Cyprus, an EU member state, insists on a bi-zonal, bi-communal federation based on UN Security Council resolutions, while northern Cyprus advocates for a two-state solution.
Aristos Michaelides, director of Phileleftheros newspaper, concluded that no positive outcome is expected because both sides remain too far apart.
“At this stage, no substantive progress is expected, but confidence-building measures, like opening new crossing points, may be proposed. Both sides agree on opening new crossing points, though they disagree on which ones and when,” Michaelides said.
He added that the UN secretary-general may intervene to help resolve this issue.
Cyprus President Nicos Christodoulides said he is coming to the Geneva talks with a concrete plan and proposals.
Michaelides noted that while the public has little expectation for breakthrough progress, they still hold onto some hope that a solution could emerge.
"The people hear the statements from both sides, see the red lines, and feel a negative atmosphere. Yet, they still hope for a miracle to break the deadlock," he said.
Turkish Cypriot leader Ersin Tatar also pointed out that the UN secretary-general has acknowledged that the sides do not share common ground.
While supporters of a solution value the mere convening of the meeting, they acknowledge that expectations are low.
However, after the last five-day meeting in Geneva in 2021, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres stated, "Squaring the circle is impossible in geometry, but it is very common in politics."
