Tesla rivals Li Auto and XPeng reported November sales on Sunday, with Nio, Zeekr and perhaps BYD also on tap.
The Chinese EV giant is likely to report November EV sales on Sunday. EV startups Li Auto, Nio, XPeng and Zeekr are also due to release monthly sales, following a robust October for China EV sales.
China EV Price War
Archrival BYD signaled a brutal two-year electric-vehicle price war won't let up in 2025.
According to local media reports, a leaked email showed BYD asking an unidentified supplier to reduce its prices by 10% from Jan. 1.
BYD reportedly dismissed the leak by saying annual price negotiation is customary. The auto giant's huge size and massive in-house operations give it strong leverage over suppliers.
The EV giant cut prices in early 2024, grabbing market share. BYD avoided new incentives in recent months amid strong orders, but reportedly added some modest discounts for December. Li Auto and Tesla have announced recent China discounts and other incentives.
Tesla Archrival BYD's EV Sales
In a Nov. 27 research note to investors, Deutsche Bank analyst Wang Bin said he expects BYD to deliver a record 520,000 EVs for November, up 72% vs. a year ago. It would also be up 3.5% from October, when BYD topped half-million monthly sales for the first time.
BYD appears to be on track to top 4 million sales for 2024, including hybrids.
The China automaker continues to refresh and grow its lineup of electric vehicles. Most of BYD's sales still come from China, though it's expanding overseas. In 2023, BYD's EV sales reached a record 3 million battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids, surging 62% from the previous year.
The company's next-gen Blade battery is set to launch in 2025. It will last longer while improving vehicle driving range, according to China EV industry tracker CnEVPost.com.
Backed by Warren Buffett, BYD is set to take the battery electric vehicle crown from Tesla in Q4, though perhaps not for the full year. The China EV giant more than doubled earnings for the third quarter.
U.S.-traded shares of BYD fell just over 1% in weekly stock market trading, a fifth straight weekly decline and the seventh loss in eight weeks. Shares have tumbled below the 50-day line
Tesla stock fell 2.1% to 345.30 for the week, reversing from a two-year high, but bounced 3.7% on Friday.
Li Auto's China EV Sales
Li Auto delivered 48,740 vehicles in November, up 18.8% vs. a year earlier but down 5.25% vs. October's 53,709. It was second straight sequential decline.
Deutsche Bank forecast Li Auto would deliver about 52,000 EVs in November.
Li Auto has just started offering a RMB 2,000 cash discount for the Li L7, L8, L9 and Mega. Along with zero interest loans, that could bring the total savings to roughly RMB 15,700 ($2,170).
Li stock rose 5.6% to 23.52 last week but after a four-week tumble that pushed share below their 50-day and 200-day lines.
The drop came after the China EV stock smashed earnings expectations for the third quarter. But Q4 guidance was tepid.
Based on its Q4 guidance of 160,000-170,000 vehicles for Q4, it needs 57,551 in December to reach the low end.
Nio EV Sales
Deutsche Bank expects the more premium Nio brand to deliver 17,000 EVs and the cheaper new Onvo sub-brand to deliver 5,000 units in November.
That would be up slightly from 20,976 EV deliveries in October. For Q4, Nio has guided 72,000 to 75,000 EV deliveries.
Deliveries of the Onvo L60 SUV, a Model Y rival, will be watched. Nio is trying to return to once-robust EV sales growth.
There are concerns that the Onvo L60 production ramp has been sluggish, though Nio has predicted a big increase in December.
Nio stock tumbled 7.6% last week, hitting resistance at the 200-day line.
The EV startup delivered a worse-than-feared Q3 loss earlier in November.
XPeng EV Sales
XPeng delivered a record 30,895 EVs in November, up 54.2% vs. a year earlier and 29.2% vs. October.
Deutsche Bank expected XPeng to deliver around 30,000 EVs.
Deliveries for the M03 sedan, from the affordable new Mona sub-brand, topped 10,000. Deliveries of the new P7+ sedan, which launched on Nov. 7, topped 7,000.
XPeng stock rose 1.5% in the latest week to reclaim a rising 50-day line, but is still below the 10-week average.
The Nio rival posted a smaller-than-expected Q3 loss earlier in November.
Zeekr EV Sales
Deutsche Bank expects Zeekr, a unit of China auto giant Geely, to deliver 30,000 EVs in November, up 130% from a year ago and up 20% from October.
The Zeekr 7X SUV, which launched in September, is seen driving sales.
Zeekr stock popped 4.6% for the week, just above a rising 50-day line. The startup reported narrower Q3 losses earlier in November.
China and its EV makers are monitoring President-elect Donald Trump's EV and tariff policies. Many Chinese EV and battery firms, including BYD, hope to expand in the U.S. market as growth slows at home.
Meanwhile, Tesla CEO Elon Musk has cozied up to the incoming president, who has criticizes de facto mandates on electric vehicles and favors a choice of power trains.
In October, General Motors CEO Mary Barra called the China EV price war "a race to the bottom." GM's robust U.S. profits offset China losses in the third quarter.
GM stock tumbled 5% last week, reversing from a two-year high, after Trump threatened 25% tariffs on goods from China and Mexico.
Please follow Aparna Narayanan on X @IBD_Aparna for more coverage.
