The final week of the men’s college basketball regular season is upon us. Before we can look ahead to the usual chaos that March has to offer, there are a few loose ends to tie up.
A handful of teams are still fighting for an at-large bid, as detailed in Sports Illustrated’s latest bracket projection. SEC programs like Arkansas, Texas and Oklahoma are hoping the depth of talent in the conference will win them favor. Ohio State and Indiana, despite ups and downs this season, now find themselves in a win-and-in game. And North Carolina will be playing for more than the usual rivalry bragging rights against Duke.
While there are still a few regular-season conference champions to determine, this week’s watchability focuses on the bubble. Here are the most impactful games of the weekend involving teams trying to extend their seasons:
Colorado State Rams (21–9) at Boise State Broncos (22–8)
Friday, 10 p.m. ET, FS1
The depth in this year’s Mountain West is nothing to scoff at, but exactly how many teams can get into the field of 68 remains to be seen. The Broncos are on fire and boast recent wins over New Mexico and Utah State—both due largely to Tyson Degenhart. The senior forward has been firing on all cylinders of late and already gashed Colorado State for 27 points earlier this season. That being said, the Rams weathered a second-half rally from the Broncos in that game and won by three. Plus, Colorado State has won six in a row to storm back into the bubble conversation. This very well might be the game of the weekend—the perfect appetizer to the Saturday and Sunday slates.
How this game impacts the bubble: Neither team is in the projected field as of Friday, though Boise State is knocking on the door. A win alone might not be enough, but that plus a nice run in the Mountain West tournament could do the trick. Colorado State needs a win to stay in the realistic at-large pool and would enter the First Four Out with a victory.
No. 25 Mississippi State Bulldogs (20–10) at Arkansas Razorbacks (18–12)
Saturday, noon ET, SEC Network
The Razorbacks rebounded from a flat performance at South Carolina last weekend by staying on the road and shooting nearly 51% from the floor in a statement win against Vanderbilt on Wednesday. All five starters scored in double figures, led by a 21-point, bounce back performance by Johnell Davis. Mississippi State, on the other hand, is seesawing its way toward the NCAA tournament and has lost to two other SEC bubble teams recently in Texas and Oklahoma. John Calipari & Co. seem to be hitting their stride at just the right time and a win over the Bulldogs would establish Arkansas as a team few would relish playing in the coming weeks.
How this game impacts the bubble: It’d be a stretch to call Arkansas a lock with a win, but it’d likely take multiple bid-stealers or significant résumé changes for other bubble teams for the Razorbacks to get knocked out of the field with one more SEC win. A loss makes things very dicey heading into the SEC tournament.
Ohio State Buckeyes (17–13) at Indiana Hoosiers (18–12)
Saturday, 3:45 p.m. ET, CBS
The Buckeyes got through the recent storm—aka a blowout loss at home to Northwestern—by winning their two latest games against similar competition in the Big Ten. Four players scored 20 points or more in the 116–114 shootout against Nebraska, a win that may have been exhausting but pivotal at this stage of the season. Indiana has been much steadier of late, even with Mike Woodson’s departure looming over the final stretch of the regular season. The Hoosiers fell by nine points at Oregon due largely to a wide free throw disparity (IU made just 3-of-7 from the charity stripe, while the Ducks went 19-for-21), but still are in a fairly good spot. These two teams needed overtime to decide the outcome the first time around. Perhaps desperation and the stakes in the rematch will deliver similar results.
How this game impacts the bubble: Consider this something of a win-and-in game, and it might be enough to lift the winner out of the First Four and into the main draw. The loser likely needs to win at least one game in the Big Ten tournament to get in.
No. 2 Duke Blue Devils (27–3) at North Carolina Tar Heels (20–11)
Saturday, 6:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
Well folks, it doesn’t really get any better than this. The Tar Heels are teetering on the brink of the bubble and get a chance to emphatically secure a spot in the field of 68 on their home floor against their archrival. And UNC is playing its best basketball—well at least against the ACC’s bottom half. Since losing at Clemson, the Heels have won a season-high six straight by an average margin of 19.5 points per game. The issue is this season’s Duke team is a juggernaut. Deep far beyond prospective No. 1 NBA draft pick Cooper Flagg, the Blue Devils have similarly crushed teams of late—most recently hurting Wake Forest’s tournament hopes with a 33-point blowout and dismantling Florida State by 35. This matchup was over rather quickly early this season, but we’ll see if UNC can find a better start on its home floor.
How this game impacts the bubble: A win over Duke would move the Heels from hovering around the cut line to solidly in the field, but that task is easier said than done. Even just a competitive showing could help them from a metrics standpoint. With a loss, UNC needs to add at least one Quad 1 win in the ACC tournament, which might include a third meeting with the Blue Devils.
Oklahoma Sooners (18–12) at Texas Longhorns (17–13)
Saturday, 8 p.m. ET, SEC Network
Though not known as basketball adversaries, the Red River rivals meet in a high-stakes game to close the Saturday night slate. Oklahoma scored a major upset of Missouri this week after coming up just short in the two previous games against Kentucky and Ole Miss. Texas did the same, shocking Mississippi State on the road to stop a three-game slide. Keep a close eye on Sooners freshman Jeremiah Fears, who exploded for a career-high 31 points against the Tigers. Fears and running mate Jalon Moore combined for 49 of Oklahoma’s 73 points in the mid-January loss to Texas and will need a similar performance to flip the script this weekend.
How this game impacts the bubble: The Sooners enter this one in better shape for selection than Texas, but I’d still classify this as a must-win for both teams. With a loss, Oklahoma’s spot in the field Monday would be in jeopardy and the Sooners would need an SEC tournament win or two. For Texas, a win alone might not be enough to get into the field, but it would lighten the load necessary in the SEC tournament to sneak in.
Bubble Teams, Beware … Don’t Lose These Games
Providence Friars (12–18) at Xavier Musketeers (20–10)
Saturday, 4 p.m. ET, FS1
Xavier (Last Four In) is one of the hottest teams on the bubble, having won six straight. The Musketeers have avoided playing with their food and largely cruised past the Friars in mid-February to kick off the current win streak. All that’s left to do is cap the regular season with the same performance against the same team and focus on stacking as many wins as possible in the Big East tournament.
UCF Knights (16–14) at West Virginia Mountaineers (18–12)
Saturday, 5 p.m. ET, ESPN+
Nabbing a win at Utah kept West Virginia in a solid position to earn one of the last four byes, but it would be wise not to follow that up with any sort of slipup against UCF. The Knights effectively played themselves out of consideration in the first half of February, but have won three of their last four. Darius Johnson poses a real threat to the Mountaineers after scoring 36 points with seven made threes in Wednesday’s victory over Oklahoma State.
Nevada Wolf Pack (16–14) at San Diego State Aztecs (20–8)
Saturday, 10:30 p.m. ET, FS1
San Diego State just about had a spot in the field locked up until falling to a UNLV team that shot the lights out earlier in the week. The Aztecs remain the Mountain West’s best chance to get a third team into the field, but a loss could give rise to the likes of Boise State and Colorado State. Nevada played regular-season champ New Mexico close on Tuesday, yet still faces an uphill battle. The Wolf Pack scored just 50 points and shot 29% from the floor the last time they played the Aztecs.
Iowa Hawkeyes (15–15) at Nebraska Cornhuskers (17–13)
Sunday, 12:30 p.m. ET, Fox
The Cornhuskers not only risk a brutal blow to their résumé on their home floor, but also have a chance to miss out on the 15-team Big Ten tournament field with a loss to the Hawkeyes. That would keep them from getting another chance at another win. Iowa looked frisky against Michigan State on Thursday, but so did Nebraska in the 114-point, two-overtime loss at Ohio State. Three straight losses surely doesn’t sit well with Brice Williams and the Huskers, so expect Fred Hoiberg’s team to come out fired up.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Nine Must-Watch Bubble Games to Close Men’s College Basketball Regular Season.
