As the battle for second place heats up in Iowa, former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley is making strides in reaching out to independent and moderate voters. However, questions arise regarding whether these voters can participate in the Republican caucus. The Des Moines Register conducted a poll that revealed 5% of likely caucus goers identified as Democrats, while 23% identified as independents. The answer to whether they can vote as Republicans at their caucus site is a resounding yes. Tonight, these voters have the opportunity to register as Republicans and cast their votes.
To understand the potential impact of these voters, let's take a look back at the 2020 presidential election in Iowa. Joe Biden, the Democratic candidate, won only six out of the state's 99 counties, but those counties happened to be densely populated. They included the state's capital, Des Moines, as well as university towns such as Ames and Iowa City. These areas also boast a higher level of education, which strengthens their influence in the political landscape. The concentration of non-college-educated voters tends to be in the less populous areas, where Biden's support was relatively limited.
While it may seem unusual for these independent and moderate voters to have an impact on a Republican caucus, history shows that their presence can indeed matter. Taking a look at the 2016 Republican caucuses, Marco Rubio, who received strong support from college towns and Des Moines, finished third but was not far behind the top contenders. This is the kind of performance that Haley hopes to achieve tonight, particularly as she has campaigned heavily in these areas.
Interestingly, one group perceiving Haley as a potential threat is Donald Trump and his supporters. This is evident from the ad spending in Iowa during the final weeks leading up to the caucus. Politico's analysis reveals that the Trump campaign and his super PAC spent a substantial $4.5 million targeting Haley, while none of their funds were directed towards Ron DeSantis. This spending disparity indicates that the Trump camp views Haley as the more significant competitor.
As the Iowa caucus approaches, all eyes are on the battle for second place between Haley and DeSantis. Haley's successful appeal to independent and moderate voters and her targeted campaign in college towns and urban areas could give her the edge she needs. However, with the Trump campaign singling her out as a potential threat, the results of tonight's caucus will reveal the extent of her success and solidify the contenders' positions in the race for the Republican nomination.
