In the recent Republican primary in New Hampshire, a poll has shown that 41% of undeclared voters in the state supported the former president, while 49% expressed their support for Haley. The question now arises whether Trump will be able to gain more independent voters in New Hampshire.
The dropouts of Ramaswamy and DeSantis have had an impact on the race. After Ramaswamy dropped out following the Iowa caucuses, three subsequent polls showed Donald Trump polling at 50% or higher. It seems that a small fraction of Ramaswamy's supporters shifted their allegiance to Trump. It is expected that the 6% of voters who were backing DeSantis might also join Trump's camp, although some may choose to stay home or support Nikki Haley.
Haley, on the other hand, aims to attract the independent vote, which makes up a substantial 40% of New Hampshire. She hopes to replicate the success of John McCain in 2000, where he defeated George W. Bush with the support of independents. To appeal to these voters, Haley is emphasizing her conservative credentials and her Tea Party background, presenting herself as a return to more traditional Republican policies.
However, Trump's momentum cannot be ignored. In South Carolina, Haley's home state, recent polls show Trump with 52% support. If Trump has a strong showing in New Hampshire, it is likely to have a similar impact in South Carolina. This raises concerns for Haley's team as they look toward Super Tuesday, where 12 out of the 16 states allow independents to vote. In such a two-person race, losing her home state could pose a serious challenge, even with the support of independents.
Notably, the issue of abortion is expected to resurface as a key concern for independent voters. While it may not be a top priority for the Republican primary, it is an important topic for this voting demographic. Republicans have historically struggled with abortion-related ballot initiatives, losing them consistently. To address this, the party needs to approach the issue with compassion and focus on supporting both babies and mothers. DeSantis, despite dropping out of the race, garnered attention for his emphasis on maternal healthcare and tax-free childcare products in Florida.
As the race unfolds, all eyes are on the key developments in New Hampshire and how they will shape the Super Tuesday outcome. The dropouts, the potential impact of Trump's momentum, the battle for the independent vote, and the prominence of abortion as an issue are all factors that will play a significant role in the forthcoming primaries and ultimately determine the future of the Republican nomination.
