Nigel Farage’s Reform UK has surged ahead in the latest City AM Freshwater Strategy poll, taking a three-point lead over Labour with 27 per cent to 24 per cent, while the Conservatives trail at 23 per cent. The poll marks another milestone in Reform’s rapid rise, but despite leading in voter preference, the party still falls well short of an overall majority due to Britain’s first-past-the-post electoral system.
If an election were held today, Reform UK would secure 216 seats, while the Conservatives would win 144. This would give the two parties a combined total of 360 seats, which is enough to form a majority government in the House of Commons.
Farage has made it clear that he is reluctant to form an alliance with the Tories. Meanwhile, Labour, which achieved a landslide victory last July, would see its MP count plummet to 161, suffering a staggering loss of 251 seats, as reported by the Express.
Despite Reform’s impressive polling numbers, significant challenges remain. Pollsters from YouGov recently warned that Labour could benefit from tactical voting in key marginal constituencies. Many Liberal Democrat and Green supporters are expected to side with Labour to block a Reform victory. Reform UK enjoys strong support among older voters but struggles with under-45s, particularly younger demographics where Labour remains dominant. Due to voter distribution and first-past-the-post rules, Reform’s national poll lead does not guarantee parliamentary dominance.
Despite these hurdles, Reform’s momentum is undeniable. The party has seen an influx of funding, new offices, and an effort to professionalise its operations. It has also benefited from recent Conservative councillor defections further signalling Reform’s growing influence on the right.
Much now hinges on the future of the Conservative leadership. Speculation surrounds whether the party will replace leader Kemi Badenoch but such a move could prove disastrous for Tory optics and risk alienating more voters.
While Reform UK is on the rise, its low favourability among younger voters and potential tactical voting threats could still hinder its ability to turn poll success into parliamentary power. With an election looming, Farage’s party remains a formidable force, but the road to Downing Street is far from certain.
