Nigel Farage is set to win in his constituency of Clacton, Essex, according to fresh predictions from pollster Ipsos.
The projections show Mr Farage at 52 per cent, far ahead of the next candidate, Labour’s Jovan Owusu-Nepaul at 24 per cent.
The model is the first research of its kind to be carried out entirely after Mr Farage announced that he would return to Reform UK as party leader, and run for candidate. Tory defector Lee Anderson is also estimated to hold his seat in Ashfield.
The model also projects that Jeremy Corbyn may lose his seat in Islington North after 41 years of being an MP. Labour is estimated at 54 per cent of the vote in the constituency, with candidate Praful Nargund, while Mr Corbyn may be at just 13 per cent.
Head of politics at Ipsos Gideon Skinner explained that projections can be affected by a variety of factors, and are riskier with high-profile candidates:
“Is it the question of Jeremy Corbyn losing, or is it more a question of just Labour holding off in Islington? It may be that there is identity with Labour there, even if there is also support for Jeremy Corbyn as an individual candidate.”
He added that the methodology he used “is good at making estimates based on the demographic characteristics of each individual constituency. But it’s not so good at picking up very unique political, local dynamics.”
“We make some efforts in areas where we know there are high-profile independents, we've made some changes to the approach to take that into account a bit more, but even so, that's not going to pick up the full picture of everything.
This is the latest projection using multi-level regression and post-stratification (MRP) polling, a relatively new type technique, to show that Labour will likely win a strong majority. Sir Keir Starmer’s party is on track to win an average of 453 seats, ranging between 439 and 462.
The projections suggest that Labour will see the most substantial leaps in Scotland and the North East, as well as winning seats in Wales thanks to the declining Tory vote.
Meanwhile, just 115 seats have been projected for the Tories; a loss of 225 constituencies for the party. This could go as low as 99 seats, or as high as just 123, with sharp drops in the East, South, and the Midlands.
The large-scale survey is of 19,000 people, and population data on local constituency levels.
Top Tory cabinet ministers are at high risk of losing their spots in parliament, with Grant Shapps, Penny Mordaunt and Jacob Rees-Mogg among those projected to lose on 4 July.
Meanwhile Jeremy Hunt, who has poured £100,000 of his own money into his fight for re-election, still faces an uncertain future. The former chancellor is just 1 point ahead (34 per cent) of the Lib Dems (33 per cent) in his newly-formed constituency of Godalming and Ash.
Reform is also leading by a small margin in North West Leicestershire, with candidate Noel Matthews projected at 35 per cent.
The Conservative majority in the constituency has crumbled since former Tory MP Andrew Bridgen was expelled last year, after comparing Covid to the Holocaust. Mr Bridgen then joined Reclaim Party, before quitting at the end of 2023.
The right-wing challenger party Reform is currently coming in second in 30 constituencies. At the highest end of the spectrum, Ipsos projects that the party could win 10 seats.
Around 1 in 5 seats (117 overall) have been deemed “too close to call”, with a projected winning margin of under 5 per cent. These include Salisbury, North Devon, and Torbay.
The Lib Dems are projected to win 38 seats, which could increase to 48 seats on the highest estimates. This is a sharp increase from the 8 seats which they won in the 2019 general election. The party is set to gain at least 20 seats from the Tories.
Though the Green Party are looking to make headwinds, winning party leader Carla Denyer’s constituency of Bristol Central, Ipsos projects that they may lose their only existing seat in Brighton Pavilion where Caroline Lucas has been elected since 2010. The current projections show musician Tom Gray leading by 17 points for Labour, at 54 per cent.
However, there are more positives in sight for the party, which has historically struggled to translate national vote share into seats; the Greens are currently on track to win in North Herefordshire, and are neck and neck in Waveney.
