Nicola Sturgeon has done many things in office but succession planning wasn’t one of them.
Her sudden resignation announcement means the day-to-day business of government could grind to a halt. The SNP will focus its energies instead on finding a new leader – a process that will take weeks or even months.
Alex Salmond’s resignation in 2014 was followed by the pre-planned arrival of Nicola Sturgeon as his chosen successor. This time around, there is no anointed heir to the throne.
We could see a leadership contest between as many as half a dozen rivals fighting it out. There will be hustings, TV debates and photocalls across the country.
The SNP has not seen a full-blown leadership contest since 2004. Party membership has exploded since then and the scrutiny of the leadership race will be far higher this time around.
Whoever succeeds as party leader will have to make a pitch to members on how independence is achievable. It’s the SNP’s central policy and will likely dominate the public debates.
But there are no obvious pathways to achieving a referendum. The UK Government has said no and there won’t be a change in policy this side of a general election.
The Supreme Court has made it clear that Holyrood can’t call a referendum without Westminster’s prior approval. And the de facto referendum plan could soon be ditched by SNP members.
Whoever takes over the party has to remember that constitutional debate doesn’t excite everyone in Scotland. As First Minister, their job is to govern on behalf of everyone in the country – not just SNP members.
Their email inbox will be full of pressing challenges that demand urgent attention. Public sector workers have seen their wages eaten away by inflation.
They want a fair pay deal or strikes will continue indefinitely. Teachers could walk out just at the time pupils are due to sit exams.
Health and social care staff remain demoralised and overworked. Local authorities face brutal spending cuts and services will be cut or axed as a result.
Businesses are dealing with a recruitment crisis caused by Brexit and soaring price rises. Ordinary Scots are being hit hard in the pocket every time they turn on the heating or go for their weekly shop.
These are the kinds of issues that can’t be ignored. The SNP under Nicola Sturgeon was an extraordinary election-winning machine. But there is no guarantee it will remain so if its next leader forgets about the issues that really matter to Scots.
Getting the day job right first is the only way the SNP will grow support for its number one ambition.
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