One of Nicola Sturgeon’s top advisors has warned that a new Covid variant found in America could potentially lead to more deaths this winter, and overworked health care workers, unless the NHS gets the support it needs.
Prof Devi Sridhar, global public health professor at the University of Edinburgh warned there could be a new wave coming and that herd immunity will not work with Covid - meaning there will be more strains in the future.
The advisor to the First Minister explained that a spike in infections is the general pattern of Covid, but that the UK could beat the virus if we 'act wisely.'
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The health expert also warned that there will be more deaths this winter during another wave of Covid if the NHS does not have the appropriate resources.
Professor Devi Sridhar, wrote in the Observer: "As we move into summer, more than two years since the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic, the words 'new wave' are probably the last thing anyone wants to hear.
"Yet it is true that recent UK data (as well as data from Florida and other places) indicates that sublineages of the Omicron variant, BA.4 and BA.5, are kicking off a new wave of cases.
"After all, these variations on Omicron are not more severe, but they do have the capacity to reinfect people, even those who have had a previous version of Omicron.
"This is further evidence that reaching “herd immunity” (where enough people are vaccinated or infected to stop further circulation) against Covid-19 is probably impossible.:
"Looking over the past two years, and across different places, a wave of Covid-19 cases every three months seems to be the pattern."
The First Minister's advisor is not shocked at the continuing peaks in infections and thinks there should be a more effective long term plan put in place.
She explained: "It’s not surprising that this is happening again, and we should expect another wave this winter. While the idea of the disease circulating might be anxiety-provoking, we now have a wealth of scientific knowledge and tools to deploy.
"The focus should be on what these cases mean for long Covid and for hospitalisations. Plus, there’s good news: new research indicates Omicron is indeed milder than Delta by a substantial amount in terms of hospitalisations and deaths."
Devi reinforced the importance of simple measures to protect ourselves against Covid like wearing a mask and ventilating busy areas.
"Forgive me if you’d heard this one before, but masks and ventilation are still important measures we can take. Wearing a medical-grade mask is an effective way of protecting yourself from respiratory infections, especially in crowded settings.
"That said, we also need to recognise that they are costly, and can be uncomfortable if worn for long stretches of time.
"In addition, masks interfere with wanting to see people’s faces, engage with their emotions and interact at an intimate level; child specialists have raised concerns about the impact on child speech and emotional development" she said.
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The health expert continued: "Indoor ventilation is important in reducing transmission. However, ventilation alone is unlikely to stop a wave of infections: you only have to look at Shanghai and the difficulty Chinese authorities there have had in stopping the spread of Omicron in a highly controlled lockdown setting. "
Adding a stark warning for the winter months: "And what does this mean for winter, when we expect the next wave to hit?
"While vaccines and antivirals have pushed the hospitalisation rate down, it’s equally important to invest in nurses, doctors, hospital staff and beds. After all, the NHS is already stretched this summer.
"The consequence will be unnecessary and preventable deaths, and staff working in difficult conditions unless the health service gets what it needs."
