The Goyder Line marks the line of reliable rainfall in South Australia. The Brisbane Line marks the apocryphal plan to abandon northern Australia during the second world war. The Barnaby Line, then, could mark the boundary of Barnaby Joyce’s appeal to rural voters.
It has long been assumed that Joyce is a Coalition plus in the regions and a minus in the cities, but his regional appeal may be changing in the southern states. If it is, that would mirror the challenges of all major parties, trying to straddle the divide between what voters want in the north compared with the desires in the south-east.
North of the Barnaby Line – in northern New South Wales and all but the south-eastern part of Queensland – the Nationals leader is considered a plus: bringing in more votes than he loses.
But is he a negative in the southern states, losing his MPs and candidates more votes than he attracts? This is a live question that the National party will be watching, particularly in the seat of Nicholls.
Formerly known as Murray, Nicholls is a Nationals seat on a handy 20% margin. The retirement of its sitting member, Damian Drum, has set up a competition with the Liberals and a high-profile independent, Rob Priestly. There is also a raft of minor candidates whose preferences will scatter.
It is a natural Coalition seat: conservative and rural. It was held by the Liberal Sharman Stone for two decades from 1996 to 2016. Before that, it was a wholly owned subsidiary of the National/Country party. Drum won the seat after Stone’s retirement under Joyce’s first leadership tenure, before he was forced to resign.
This time, it is instructive that the campaign material for the National party candidate, Sam Birrell, features senior Nationals such as Bridget McKenzie, and Victorians Peter Walsh and Steph Ryan, the party’s deputy state leader. But not Joyce.
Priestly’s campaigning on social media includes the post: “I will vote for what my community wants, not what Barnaby Joyce wants.”
Joyce opened the Dhungala Echuca-Moama bridge in the electorate on the first day of the federal campaign, getting into a slanging match with Victoria’s transport infrastructure minister, Jacinta Allan.
Echuca local Kate Burke described the opening as “the biggest thing to happen in Echuca since Charles and Diana visited in the 1980s”. Writing in Guardian Australia, she said locals were horrified at Joyce’s behaviour. It was a “free kick” for the Liberal, Steve Brooks, and Priestly.
Priestly ran with it.
“This is a bridge for the community, not politicians. Let’s put the ego-driven political games aside and start working together for more great outcomes for our region,” Priestly wrote on Facebook, with a link to the Joyce story.
Raphaella Kathryn Crosby, a pollster with Kore CSR who lives in Joyce’s electorate of New England, says Joyce plays well with the big broadacre farmers in the western and northern parts of the eastern states, though she notes he is a chameleon who would change to suit the conditions. In the main, she says, “little farmers are not Barnaby’s crowd”.
The Victorian Nationals famously distanced themselves from their federal party when Joyce came back to the leadership. Darren Chester, a popular Victorian MP aligned with the former leader, Michael McCormack, was dumped from the ministry while McKenzie – a Joyce ally – was elevated.
The Victorian state seat of Shepparton, held by the independent MP Suzanna Sheed, is contained within the boundaries of Nicholls. Voters in Shepparton, the largest population centre in Nicholls, have had first-hand experience of an independent who is closely aligned to Priestly.
Sheed won that seat in November 2014, breaking a long history of state National/Country party representation. That year, the Abbott government rejected a plea from the large local employer SPC – then a subsidiary of Coca-Cola Amatil – for $25m to “retool” its food processing plant. Abbott cited extravagant worker entitlements. The then treasurer Joe Hockey declared “the age of entitlement is over”. Stone accused her own government of lying.
The state Coalition government stepped in with the bailout instead. But a week before Sheed won her seat, Joyce was asked why he didn’t take the fight for SPC to cabinet as agriculture minister.
“The people of that area vote for the Liberal party,” he said, and he had to pick his battles.
John Howard famously described Victoria as the Massachusetts of Australia, meaning it was further to the left than other states. Rural seats such as Nicholls have seen that the world will not end if they try other political options – notably in the seat of Indi, held by Helen Haines, albeit on a wafer-thin margin of 1.4%.
When Joyce came back to the leadership, Ryan pushed hard against him. She noted that the stakes were high for Nationals communities on climate: for farming, for infrastructure and for community. “And I think our voters are asking us to do more,” Ryan said.
Drum didn’t rush off to Glasgow climate talks for nothing.
The Nationals know Nicholls will be a close contest and they have been bombarding its voters with personnel and promises. While Scott Morrison has yet to visit, Joyce has been there again, promising $20m for a clinical health school.
Make no mistake, it is a very safe Coalition seat. At the Kyvalley public hall polling booth, near Kyabram, the Nationals polled 88.2% of the vote at the last election.
Sitting outside the Kyabram bakery, I asked a man who would win Nicholls. He pointed out a silky terrier. “I honestly believe if you got that little dog … and put him up as the National party candidate he would win it hands down.”
Whoever wins, Nicholls voters are learning that political alternatives deliver attention. And attention provides services.
Gabrielle Chan is Guardian Australia’s rural and regional editor.
