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Belfast Live
Belfast Live
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Brendan Hughes

NI Protocol deal analysis: Focus shifts to DUP as Windsor Framework is agreed

After many months of mounting speculation, a new deal on Brexit's Northern Ireland Protocol has finally been done.

Getting this far is an achievement in itself for Rishi Sunak, the fourth Prime Minister to grapple with disputes over Irish Sea trading arrangements.

The headline changes were well briefed in advance, including a new red and green-lane system for goods moving from Great Britain to Northern Ireland.

Read more: DUP silent on speculation of discontent over handling of Protocol talks with PM adviser

It will take time to digest the details, but any agreement with the European Union which reduces checks and red tape will be welcomed by businesses here.

The real challenge for Mr Sunak will be selling the “Windsor Framework” to Conservative Party colleagues, and crucially in order to restore Stormont power-sharing, the DUP.

The Prime Minister will hope to avoid a revolt among Tory Eurosceptics, although the size of any rebellion is expected to be small.

A vote on the deal among MPs will sail through the Commons as Labour has already pledged its support, but Mr Sunak relying on the opposition would expose weakness in his premiership.

Mr Sunak receiving the early backing of arch-Brexiteer Steve Baker, a Northern Ireland Office minister who had been on resignation watch, is a positive sign for Downing Street.

The government involving the King in Monday's political theatre - advising him to meet EU chief Ursula von der Leyen and giving the deal a royal air with the name "Windsor" - will do little to persuade the DUP.

Former DUP leader Arlene Foster said the meeting was "crass and will go down very badly".

Instead, the party will take their time to consider whether the agreement meets their seven tests. DUP leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson will have to consult party officers and perhaps even the wider party executive.

Plans for a "Stormont brake" allowing the Northern Ireland Assembly to raise concerns about future changes to EU rules could help address DUP concerns of a "democratic deficit" caused by the protocol.

But the European Court of Justice remaining the final arbiter on issues of EU law in the region will annoy Brexit hardliners within the DUP.

An initial assessment from Sir Jeffrey is somewhat of a holding statement, acknowledging "significant progress" but saying "there remain key issues of concern".

He added: "There can be no disguising the fact that in some sectors of our economy EU law remains applicable in Northern Ireland."

The DUP may struggle to avoid tensions playing out between devolutionists who favour a pragmatic approach and those staunch Brexiteers in its ranks who want EU law removed completely from Northern Ireland.

All the while, hardline voices such as TUV leader Jim Allister and loyalist activist Jamie Bryson will be holding the DUP's feet to the fire.

The easiest option for the DUP would be putting off any decision on returning to Stormont power-sharing until after May's council elections.

But if the party continues to block devolved government, there may be little appetite in London and Brussels to revisit negotiations - and calls will grow for power-sharing rules to be reformed.

A deal may be done, but the political stalemate is not over yet.

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