The battle between the DUP and Sinn Féin to be the largest Stormont party after May's election is shaping up to be a question of which will lose more seats.
Just one seat separated the big two in the last Assembly election in 2017, with the DUP returning 28 MLAs to Sinn Fein's 27.
But successive opinion polls suggest that for both parties their vote share has dropped compared to five years ago.
Read more: Full coverage of the 2022 Northern Ireland Assembly election
Sinn Féin was considered to have reached a high watermark in the snap 2017 election as nationalists expressed their anger over issues including the DUP's handling of the RHI scandal.
The republican party received 27.9% of the first-preference votes. By comparison, a University of Liverpool survey in February had Sinn Féin on 23.2% - a fall of more than four points.
However, Sinn Féin could still be on course to overtake the DUP to become the largest party - because its vote may fall by a greater margin.
The DUP achieved 28.1% of first preferences in 2017. In the February poll it had slumped to 19.4%.
The party is suffering from a three-way split in the unionist vote amid their leadership turmoil last year and unionist dissatisfaction over the handling of Brexit and the Northern Ireland Protocol.
Both parties are going into this election campaign with different strategies in a bid to come out on top.
For the DUP, it has sought to present a more hardline approach against the Protocol as it seeks to claw back votes drifting towards Jim Allister's TUV.
As part of this, the DUP collapsed the Stormont Executive and has warned it will not return to power-sharing after the election until its demands over the Protocol are met.
They will argue unionist voters must rally behind them to stop Sinn Féin becoming the largest party and thus taking the First Minister post.
The DUP's recurring line is that Sinn Féin will then "demand a focus on their plan for a divisive border poll" rather than on health, education and the economy.
It is a difficult narrative for the DUP to push after the party walked away from devolved government.
The DUP running fewer candidates than in 2017 shows the party is seeking to shore up its vote. Strangford, Foyle and Upper Bann are among the constituencies where it could be vulnerable to losing seats.
Sinn Féin meanwhile has argued the DUP withdrawing from the Executive has prevented remaining ministers from properly tackling problems such as cost of living pressures.
Otherwise its approach to this election has tended to involve maintaining a lower profile while unionist divisions deepen and their rhetoric escalates.
The DUP and Ulster Unionists refusing to say whether they would take up the Deputy First Minister post if Sinn Féin became the largest party could enrage nationalist voters.
"The DUP only want democracy when it’s on their terms," has become a recurring line in Sinn Féin messaging.
The party has also sought to close off DUP lines of attack and make itself more transfer friendly as voters go to the polls.
When the DUP accused Sinn Féin of disrespecting unionists by blocking Queen's jubilee commemorations, Sinn Féin agreed to the planting of a tree at Stormont to mark the jubilee.
And party leader Mary Lou McDonald passed on her congratulations to the Queen on a "lifetime of service".
Sinn Féin's public statements also repeatedly align itself with "other progressive parties" at Stormont, seeking to secure transfers from SDLP, Alliance and Green voters.
With the party holding multiple seats in some constituencies, it is more susceptible to shifts in votes towards smaller parties.
Picking up second, third or fourth preferences further down the ballot could be crucial in holding onto at-risk seats in areas such as West Belfast, North Belfast and Fermanagh and South Tyrone.
Framing this election as a fight to become First Minister benefits both the DUP and Sinn Féin.
However, this narrative takes absolutely zero account of how the First Minister and Deputy First Minister are joint and equal roles.
Smaller parties have taken to calling them 'Joint First Ministers', joking that they need each other's approval to even order paperclips.
As part of our system of mandatory power-sharing between unionists and nationalists, one cannot lead the power-sharing Executive without the other. They must govern together.
Instead, this particular battle within the election is about symbolism.
It would be considered a major psychological blow to unionism if it were to lose the First Minister title for the first time.
Sinn Féin meanwhile would undoubtedly argue that becoming the largest party and attaining the First Minister post shows growing support for Irish unity.
In the last Assembly election, just 1,168 votes separated the DUP and Sinn Féin.
As polling day draws nearer, both parties know every vote - and every transfer - will matter in realising their ambitions.
Read more: Full coverage of the 2022 Northern Ireland Assembly election
Read more: SDLP's Colum Eastwood: All political leaders should feel ashamed over cost of living crisis
For the latest politics news straight to your inbox, sign up to our newsletter here.
