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Brendan Hughes

NI election analysis: Big wins for Sinn Fein while Alliance surge stalls

Seismic shifts in the political landscape are continuing apace in the latest Northern Ireland local government election.

While votes are still being counted and many seats have yet to be filled, the broad picture is largely mirroring last year's Stormont poll.

Despite the similarities with 12 months ago, there are differences which will leave some parties celebrating and others soul searching.

Read more: SDLP MLA Matthew O'Toole to visit 40 polling stations to mark 40th birthday

Sinn Féin looks set to repeat last year's historic Assembly victory by once again overtaking the DUP to become the largest party at council level for the first time.

Indications from first-preference results suggest a storming win, with a vote share which could break the 30% barrier.

Placing Michelle O'Neill front and centre in an almost presidential-style campaign has clearly paid off for Sinn Féin.

Many voters bought into her positive campaign with a message of "working for all", nodding to the "First Minister for all" pitch which was so successful last year.

The Sinn Féin deputy leader may not be First Minister yet, but she made the most of the past year by acting like one.

Her meetings and handshakes with many people from different communities - captured from every angle by Sinn Féin - helped show a personable image that voters could relate to.

Alliance looks on course to move into third place among the parties, gaining new seats across various local authorities.

But in some areas the Alliance surge has stalled. West of the Bann, the party's similar message to Sinn Féin of getting back to work seems to have been swallowed up by the larger rival.

Losses expected in Derry and Strabane, where the party had recently opened a new office, will be seen as a setback.

The DUP is expected to fall into second place but its vote has largely held up.

Early figures suggest its share of first preferences will be around 24% - on a par with 2019 and above last year's Assembly election.

A cull of candidate numbers appears to have helped mitigate seat losses that may have resulted from a percentage drop.

Hardline rivals TUV look set to make gains, but not to an extent that should make the DUP concerned that its vote is splintering.

Sir Jeffrey Donaldson's message of "divided votes hands seats to the opponents of the Union" appears to have worked.

But with voter turnout down in mainly unionist areas, the DUP leader will find it difficult to spin this result as an endorsement of his campaign.

He may have avoided a unionist split, but the DUP strategy has simply incensed nationalists - driving many voters towards Sinn Féin.

Turnout soared in nationalist areas, bolstered by anger over the DUP blocking Stormont in opposition to Brexit's Northern Ireland Protocol and stalling Sinn Fein taking up the First Minister post.

For the UUP and SDLP it seems to be another story of gradual decline. The full extent will only be known in the latter stages as the final seats are declared.

Some losses have been offset to an extent by a few bright-spot gains elsewhere.

Smaller parties such as the Greens and People Before Profit have also been squeezed as Northern Ireland increasingly becomes a three-party state.

Green leader Mal O'Hara lost his seat in Belfast's Castle area. It makes him the party's second leader to be knocked out in a year, after Clare Bailey lost her MLA seat last May.

The story of this election is still being written with counting to continue on Saturday, but it seems the message from most voters is that all roads lead back to Stormont.

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