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Belfast Live
National
Brendan Hughes

NI Election 2022 analysis: Politics in Northern Ireland now has not two, but three tribes

The Assembly election has produced a seismic shift in the landscape of Northern Ireland politics.

Sinn Féin is on course to make history as the largest party at Stormont, with a nationalist entitled to hold the First Minister post for the first time.

It has been a stunning election victory for Michelle O'Neill's party.

Read more: LIVE updates from Northern Ireland Assembly election

Many thought its result in 2017 was a high watermark, boosted by anger over the RHI scandal, Arlene Foster's crocodile comments and sympathy over the ill health of Martin McGuinness.

It was believed Sinn Féin would need to encourage transfers to shore up a declining vote share.

However, the party has staggeringly won the popular vote, upped its first-preferences against such a high bar - and looks set to retain all 27 of the Assembly seats it won five years ago.

Sinn Féin built a positive campaign around the health service, cost of living and Ms O'Neill being a "First Minister for all".

It clearly resonated with nationalist voters, rallied further by unionist leaders refusing to say if they would accept the Deputy First Minister post if Sinn Féin became the largest party.

While first and deputy first minister are joint and co-equal roles, in the end the symbolism that nationalists should also be entitled to hold the First Minister post proved potent to many voters.

The DUP falls to second place, but this has not been the disaster of an election for the leading unionist party that some polls and pundits predicted.

The party reduced its number of candidates before the election began, consolidating its overall vote and mitigating losses.

And its vote has held up relatively well after focusing much of its campaign on warnings that a Sinn Féin First Minister would lead to a "divisive border poll".

Many first-preference votes were lost to TUV with its more uncompromising stance against Brexit's Northern Ireland Protocol, but many have returned to the DUP in transfers.

While the boost in TUV support did not translate into a wave of new seats, the party looks set to gain a seat in Strangford.

It would mean party founder Jim Allister will have a colleague in the so-called 'naughty corner' of the Assembly chamber for the first time.

The history of devolution at Stormont has been dominated by the two blocs of nationalism and unionism, but this election has seen the emergence of a unified third force in politics.

The huge increase in votes for the Alliance Party means the Assembly chamber now has not two, but three big tribes - nationalism, unionism and other.

It is a continuation of the so-called 'Alliance surge' in elections in 2019 that saw the party gain a host of new council seats, a brief stint in the European Parliament and a seat at Westminster.

The latest surge in support will see the party mop up seats across Northern Ireland towards the higher end of pre-election expectations.

Second seats expected in South Belfast and North Down as well as gains in North Belfast, East Antrim and South Down mean their MLA numbers increase from eight last time to well into double figures.

The impact of all of the above has been a devastating squeeze for the middle-ground parties of unionism and nationalism as well as the Green Party.

The Greens look set to be wiped out, losing both their Assembly seats including party leader Clare Bailey's in South Belfast.

SDLP deputy leader Nichola Mallon, Stormont's Infrastructure Minister, is set to lose out in North Belfast to Alliance's Nuala McAllister.

Ulster Unionist leader Doug Beattie is also struggling in Upper Bann.

With the count continuing, some are even questioning whether the SDLP and UUP will have enough seats to be entitled to re-enter Stormont's power-sharing government.

There will be much soul-searching for all three parties as they pour over the results in the coming days and conduct a post-mortem on what went wrong.

For Stormont itself, this realignment of politics will bolster arguments on the need for changes to how the Executive and Assembly work.

Structures designed around nationalists and unionists sharing power become no longer sustainable if a large block of MLAs agnostic on the constitutional question are locked out of certain vetoes and votes.

This may all become mixed in with a protracted negotiation process between the parties on re-forming a devolved government that could take many months.

Legislation passed through Westminster in February also means current Stormont ministers can remain in office in a caretaker capacity for months after the election if no agreement is reached.

And with the DUP refusing to return to power-sharing until its concerns over the Protocol are addressed, no new Executive is expected anytime soon.

Read more: LIVE updates from Northern Ireland Assembly election

Read more: Stormont parties spend big on social media adverts in last days of NI election campaign

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