NHS waiting lists are likely to rise before improving, a health minister has said, as the government turns to private sector capacity in a bid to cut record levels.
Maria Caulfield admitted the number of patients, which stands at 7.47 million, in line for treatment is expected to climb further in the coming months before reaching a peak.
The government has announced plans to expand private sector involvement in the health service and relax the rules governing contracts awarded by the NHS as it attempts to tackle the backlog.
Speaking to Sky News, Ms Caulfield said taxpayers would still be getting “good value for money” under the provider selection regime, which allows greater freedom to grant contracts without tendering.
She said the plans, which will see 13 new community diagnostic centres (CDCs) opened across England, eight of which will be operated by the private sector, would help to bring down record numbers of people waiting for treatment.
But she said she could not promise that waiting lists would not get worse before they get better.
“We probably expect, in all honesty, for it to peak in the next few months,” she told LBC’s Nick Ferrari.
“We’re almost at the peak but we think it will go slightly higher, but it will then start to come down, and that’s why we’re making announcements like this now, so that we are getting that capacity and that infrastructure so that patients can get their treatments more quickly.
“But yes, we’re being honest with people that the total number is likely to rise a little bit more before they start to come down.”
We must use every available resource to deliver life-saving checks to ease pressure on the NHS— Health Secretary Steve Barclay
The Government has said the new CDCs help carry out an additional 742,000 scans, checks and tests per year.
Health Secretary Steve Barclay said: “We must use every available resource to deliver life-saving checks to ease pressure on the NHS.
“By making use of the available capacity in the independent sector, and enabling patients to access this diagnostic capacity free at the point of need, we can offer patients a wider choice of venues to receive treatment and in doing so diagnose major illnesses quicker and start treatments sooner.”
Figures released last month showed NHS waiting lists stood at 7.47 million at the end of May, the highest number since records began in 2007.
Private centres will operate similarly to their NHS counterparts, the Government said, but staff will be employed by private operators, which also own the buildings.
Sites in the South West – in Redruth, Bristol, Torbay, Yeovil and Weston-super-Mare – will be operated by diagnostics company InHealth.
Other private facilities will also be in Southend, Northampton and south Birmingham, and join four already operating in Brighton, north Solihull, Oxford and Salford.
The new NHS-run sites are in Hornchurch, Skegness, Lincoln, Nottingham and Stoke-on-Trent.
The Government pledged to open 160 CDCs by 2030. There are currently 114 operating, which have carried out 4.6 million tests, checks and scans since July 2021.
These actions will bolster capacity across the country and give patients more choice over where and when they are treated— Health minister Will Quince
A number of other measures to use capacity in the private sector have been outlined by the Elective Recovery Taskforce, which was set up in December.
These include using data from private health providers to identify where they could take on more NHS patients to help clear backlogs. They will also look at using the private sector to train junior NHS staff.
Health minister and Elective Recovery Taskforce chairman Will Quince added: “We have already made significant progress in bringing down waiting lists, with 18-month waits virtually eliminated.
“I chaired the Elective Recovery Taskforce to turbocharge these efforts and help patients get the treatment they need.
“These actions will bolster capacity across the country and give patients more choice over where and when they are treated.”
No-one should be waiting in pain while hospital beds that could be used lie empty— Shadow health secretary Wes Streeting
Labour said the Government is not making enough use of private capacity, claiming 331,000 patients waiting for NHS care could have been treated since January 2022.
Shadow health secretary Wes Streeting, said: “The Conservatives are failing to make use of private sector capacity and patients are paying the price.
“No-one should be waiting in pain while hospital beds that could be used lie empty. The next Labour government will use spare capacity in the private sector to get patients seen faster.”
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak vowed to bring waiting lists down earlier this year, but last month he blamed industrial action across the NHS for making the task “more challenging”.
While more independent sector involvement will help boost capacity quicker, it does not fix the root of the issue or provide the NHS with the resources it needs to meet the demand on it for the longer-term— Helen Buckingham, Nuffield Trust
Junior doctors are currently preparing for another four-day strike on August 11 in their ongoing row with the Government over pay, with consultants walking out for 48 hours on August 24.
But experts said the Government must be wary of “longer-term and unintended consequences” of leaning on private sector capacity to tackle the backlogs.
“This scheme will need to be carefully designed to make sure that the NHS is not simply left with the most complex cases without the right staff or capacity to deal with them,” Nuffield Trust director of strategy Helen Buckingham said.
“The payments for independent providers will also need to be carefully thought out.”
She added: “While more independent sector involvement will help boost capacity quicker, it does not fix the root of the issue or provide the NHS with the resources it needs to meet the demand on it for the longer-term.”
