Of all the weeks, this might be the best slate of NFL football yet in 2023.
Early on Sunday, it’s the Chiefs and Dolphins battling in Germany for best record in the AFC. In the early window, we get a terrific interconference tilt between the Ravens and Seahawks in Baltimore.
Then, the late window provides an incredible NFC East matchup with the Cowboys going to Lincoln Financial Field to play the Eagles. Then, finally, the Bengals host the Bills on Sunday night.
So what are the unsung keys to those games and all the others? Let’s dive in.
Miami Dolphins (6–2) at Kansas City Chiefs (6–2)
Key matchup: Miami’s front seven vs. Kansas City’s line
The Dolphins have gotten after quarterbacks this season, ranking sixth in pressure rate (26.6%) and fourth in sacks (27). Meanwhile, Kansas City has allowed the best sack rate (3.1%) and fewest sacks (10) in football.
Can defensive coordinator Vic Fangio’s unit get Patrick Mahomes on the ground?
Minnesota Vikings (4–4) at Atlanta Falcons (4–4)
Key matchup: Minnesota’s third-down rushing vs. Atlanta’s front
Without Kirk Cousins, the Vikings will need to utilize their ground game more effectively, especially on third downs. This season, Minnesota only has 27 rushing first downs, ranking 31st in football.
It won’t come easy against the Falcons, who have permitted the seventh-fewest rushing first downs this year with 39.
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Arizona Cardinals (1–7) at Cleveland Browns (4–3)
Key matchup: Cleveland’s passing game vs. Arizona’s back seven
The Browns have been fantastic in most areas defensively this season, but they’ve been a wreck throwing the ball. Cleveland is dead last by a wide margin in adjusted yards per pass attempt, coming in at 4.3. Nobody else is below 5.1.
However, the Cardinals are an easy team to throw on. Head coach Jonathan Gannon’s squad checks in 28th defensively in the metric, allowing 8.0 adjusted yards per attempt.
Los Angeles Rams (3–5) at Green Bay Packers (2–5)
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Key matchup: Jordan Love vs. the Rams’ pass rush
Love has struggled over the past month as the Packers have lost four straight. But there are some reasons to believe he could have a better day against the Rams.
Los Anglees has struggled getting home, ranking 27th in pressure rate (18.7%) and tied for 26th with 15 sacks. Of course, Aaron Donald can always break through on a given play.
Washington Commanders (3–5) at New England Patriots (2–6)
Key matchup: Mac Jones taking shots vs. Washington’s secondary
The Commanders were stout up front before trading away edge rushers Chase Young and Montez Sweat. Yet they’ve been brutal all year on the back end, allowing a league-worst 1,286 air yards.
New England isn’t a team that typically throws over the top, but it’ll need to try. The Patriots sit 22nd with 821 air yards.
Chicago Bears (2–6) at New Orleans Saints (4–4)
Key matchup: Saints rushing attack vs. Bears’ front seven
The Bears haven’t done much right this season, but they’ve been stingy against the run. Chicago’s defense is best in the NFL, allowing only 3.3 yards per carry.
This could be a problem that makes New Orleans’ offense one-dimensional. The Saints are tied for 26th in yards per carry at 3.6.
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Seattle Seahawks (5–2) at Baltimore Ravens (6–2)
Key matchup: Seattle’s star wideouts vs. Baltimore’s secondary
The Ravens have been awesome defensively this season, ranking first in yards per play against (4.2), sacks (31) and third in passing yards per game (176.6).
Do the Seahawks have an answer? They’ve thrown for 227.6 yards per game, a pedestrian 15th. However, Seattle has allowed only 14 sacks, tied for fifth-best in the NFL. Geno Smith needs more good protection, and then some plays to be made by DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3–4) at Houston Texans (3–4)
Key matchup: Todd Bowles’ scheme vs. C.J. Stroud
Stroud has been excellent in his rookie season for the Texans, but he’s still a first-year starter. Nobody has a higher bad-throw percentage (22.5%). Still, Houston has the fewest turnovers in football with only four.
Bowles will look to change the latter figure. Tampa Bay has been good at stealing the ball, ranking third-best with 14 takeaways.
Indianapolis Colts (3–5) at Carolina Panthers (1–6)
Key matchup: Carolina’s tackling vs. Colts’ receivers
The Panthers have been awful trying to tackle in the open field this season. Carolina has missed 68 tackles, with only the Texans being worse at 69.
Meanwhile, Indianapolis has made teams pay when getting the ball to its wideouts. The Colts are tied for fifth in yards after catch per reception at 5.6.
New York Giants (2–6) at Las Vegas Raiders (3–5)
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Key matchup: Daniel Jones vs. Maxx Crosby and Co.
Despite having one of the league’s best pass rushers in Crosby, the Raiders have struggled to consistently get home, ranking tied for 27th in pressure rate (18.7%).
Perhaps that number increases this week at home against the Giants. New York has allowed pressure on 31.3% of Jones’s dropbacks this year. Only Zach Wilson has been under more duress.
Dallas Cowboys (5–2) at Philadelphia Eagles (7–1)
Key matchup: Jalen Hurts’s deep shots vs. the Cowboys’ secondary
With A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith on the perimeter, the Eagles love to throw deep. In fact, Hurts averages 8.8 air yards per attempt, less than only Ryan Tannehill and Jordan Love.
This is a space Dallas has excelled in. The Cowboys rank third-best in the NFL at limiting air yards with only 627 against.
Buffalo Bills (5–3) at Cincinnati Bengals (4–3)
Key matchup: Joe Burrow’s protection vs. the Bills’ front four
Burrow is tied for the second-quickest pocket time per dropback (2.1 seconds) and yet has sustained the seventh-most hits of any quarterback this season with 26.
Buffalo’s defense is beat up without Matt Milano, Tre’Davious White and Da’Quan Jones, but it can still get home. The Bills have 61 quarterback hits, second-most in the NFL.
Los Angeles Chargers (3–4) at New York Jets (4–3)
Key matchup: Zach Wilson vs. the Chargers’ secondary
Wilson has struggled much of the season, encapsulated by the Jets ranking 27th in yards per attempt (6.1). However, the Chargers have been a disaster on the back end, permitting a league-worst 8.4 YPA.
If Wilson can find some open spots in Los Angeles’ zone-heavy scheme, the Jets could have a big day in primetime.
