If you’re coming here looking for picks, that’s not what this is. We’ll get to those later in the week.
This right here is an early betting preview of the upcoming action in the NFL, with a first impression of each game and betting line, with a few trends and hints sprinkled in. Sometimes, bettors can overthink things and talk themselves out of making the right pick. So these are just baseline thoughts before we take a deeper dive into the numbers later in the week.
Spreads and over/under numbers are from BetMGM and likely to change after this is published.
1
Ravens at Buccaneers (+1.5) (O/U: 45.5)
Ravens: 4-3 (3-4 ATS, 2-5 O/U)
Buccaneers: 3-4 (2-5 ATS, 1-6 O/U)
This game just screams “bet the under” when you look at the how often these teams’ games have fallen under and how inept Tampa’s offense is.
2
Broncos at Jaguars (-3) (O/U: 39.5)
Broncos: 2-5 (2-5 ATS, 1-6 O/U)
Jaguars: 2-5 (2-5 ATS, 4-3 O/U)
The Jaguars are a tough matchup for the Broncos whether Russell Wilson plays or not.
3
Steelers at Eagles (-11) (O/U: 43.5)
Steelers: 2-5 (3-3-1 ATS, 2-5 O/U)
Eagles: 6-0 (4-2 ATS, 3-3 O/U)
As good as the Eagles are, they’ve only scored 30 points once this season — and that was in Week 1. They should win, but 11 points is quite the spread.
4
Cardinals at Vikings (-3.5) (O/U: 49)
Cardinals: 3-4 (4-3 ATS, 2-5 O/U)
Vikings: 5-1 (2-4 ATS, 3-3 O/U)
If the Cardinals offense is back back, which it looked to be against the Saints last week, this game could very well turn into a shootout and easily hit the over.
5
Dolphins at Lions (+3) (O/U: 50.5)
Dolphins: 4-3 (3-4 ATS, 2-5 O/U)
Lions: 1-5 (3-3 ATS, 4-2 O/U)
For all their early promise, the Lions have one win to show for it. And now they can’t even score points any more. Covering a field goal is going to be tough in Tua Tagovailoa’s second week back with the Dolphins.
6
Raiders at Saints (+2) (O/U: 48)
Raiders: 2-4 (3-3 ATS, 4-2 O/U)
Saints: 2-5 (2-5 ATS, 5-2 O/U)
This is another game that feels like the over is greatly in play. The Saints defense has been incredibly disappointing this year, but even with Andy Dalton under center, they score a lot of points.
7
Patriots at Jets (+2.5) (O/U: 41)
Patriots: 3-4 (3-3-1 ATS, 4-3 O/U)
Jets: 5-2 (5-2 ATS, 3-4 O/U)
Breece Hall is a big loss, but trading for James Robinson seemed to be a good move in the interim for the Jets. And yet they’re still home underdogs to the 3-4 Patriots who were just blasted by the Bears. Interesting.
8
Bears at Cowboys (-10.5) (O/U: 42.5)
Bears: 3-4 (3-3-1 ATS, 3-4 O/U)
Cowboys: 5-2 (5-2 ATS, 1-5-1 O/U)
Dallas’ offense took awhile to get going against Detroit, but that defense is still rolling along. The Bears are feeling good about themselves, but it’s hard to imagine they’ll move the ball much in this one.
9
Panthers at Falcons (-4.5) (O/U: 42)
Panthers: 2-5 (2-5 ATS, 2-5 O/U)
Falcons: 3-4 (6-1 ATS, 4-3 O/U)
After dropping its first game of the season against the spread, Atlanta gets a good spot to bounce back against Carolina. But the Panthers are cause for pause after they got a solid game from PJ Walker in an upset over the Bucs.
10
Titans at Texans (+1.5) (O/U: 40.5)
Titans: 4-2 (4-2 ATS, 2-4 O/U)
Texans: 1-4-1 (3-2-1 ATS, 3-3 O/U)
The Titans firmly feel like the best team in the AFC South after their second win over the Colts last week, so 1.5 points don’t feel like enough for the Texans here.
11
49ers at Rams (+2) (O/U: 43)
49ers: 3-4 (3-4 ATS, 2-5 O/U)
Rams: 3-3 (2-4 ATS, 1-5 O/U)
The Niners beat the Rams by 15 the first time they played, and all they did since then was add Christian McCaffrey. They just really seem to have LA’s number when you look at how many times they’ve beaten them the last few years.
12
Giants at Seahawks (-3) (O/U: 45.5)
Giants: 6-1 (6-1 ATS, 1-5-1 O/U)
Seahawks: 4-3 (4-3 ATS, 4-3 O/U)
I continue to be shocked at Giants spreads. I’m not sure what more oddsmakers need to see short of a blowout for them to be favored. But having a proven ability to consistently win close games has to count for something, right?
13
Commanders at Colts (-3) (O/U: 40)
Commanders: 3-4 (3-4 ATS, 3-4 O/U)
Colts: 3-3-1 (3-4 ATS, 1-6 O/U)
This shocks me a little bit considering Sam Ehlinger is making his first career start for the Colts, but apparently there isn’t much trust in Washington and Taylor Heinicke to get it done on the road.
14
Packers at Bills (-11.5) (O/U: 47.5)
Packers: 3-4 (2-5 ATS, 3-4 O/U)
Bills: 5-1 (4-2 ATS, 1-5 O/U)
Aaron Rodgers is facing his first career game as a double-digit underdog, and it absolutely feels like a proper spread. The Packers are on a three-game losing streak, all to teams nowhere near as good as the Bills.
15
Bengals at Browns (+3) (O/U: 47.5)
Bengals: 4-3 (5-2 ATS, 2-5 O/U)
Browns: 2-5 (3-4 ATS, 5-2 O/U)
This spread doesn’t feel big enough considering how much the Bengals offense has come on of late. Joe Burrow is in a groove, and the Browns won’t likely be able to keep up without controlling the clock on the ground.
