If you’re coming here looking for picks, that’s not what this is. We’ll get to those later in the week.
This right here is an early betting preview of the upcoming action in the NFL, with a first impression of each game and betting line, with a few trends and hints sprinkled in. Sometimes, bettors can overthink things and talk themselves out of making the right pick. So these are just baseline thoughts before we take a deeper dive into the numbers later in the week.
Spreads and over/under numbers are from BetMGM and likely to change after this is published.
1
Saints at Cardinals (-1.5) (O/U: 45)
Saints: 2-4 (2-4 ATS, 4-2 O/U)
Cardinals: 2-4 (3-3 ATS, 1-5 O/U)
I know Joe Burrow just torched the Saints, but I question how much the Cardinals will be able to do against them. Arizona’s offense has been really bad, but maybe the return of DeAndre Hopkins gives it life.
2
Packers at Commanders (+5.5) (O/U: 41.5)
Packers: 3-3 (2-4 ATS, 2-4 O/U)
Commanders: 2-4 (2-4 ATS, 2-4 O/U)
The tough thing for Washington is the injury to Carson Wentz, which presumably plays into this 5.5-point line. Because I can’t see how the Packers are laying this many points against anybody with the way they’ve looked, even against the terrible Commanders.
3
Giants at Jaguars (-3) (O/U: 42.5)
Giants: 5-1 (5-1 ATS, 1-4-1 O/U)
Jaguars: 2-4 (2-4 ATS, 4-2 O/U)
I’m actually stunned the Giants aren’t favored over Jacksonville after wins over the Packers and Ravens. This goes to show they aren’t a team bookmakers believe in yet.
4
Falcons at Bengals (-6) (O/U: 47.5)
Falcons: 3-3 (6-0 ATS, 3-3 O/U)
Bengals: 3-3 (4-2 ATS, 1-5 O/U)
Like the Giants, the Falcons apparently haven’t garnered much trust yet. A six-point spread for a team that’s undefeated against the spread just begs you to take the action.
5
Colts at Titans (-2.5) (O/U: 42.5)
Colts: 3-2-1 (3-3 ATS, 1-5 O/U)
Titans: 3-2 (3-2 ATS, 2-3 O/U)
Indy’s offense came to life a bit Sunday, setting up a big game here for first place in the AFC South. But I’m not sure I trust it enough yet to take anything but the under in this game. Especially with Tennessee favored.
6
Lions at Cowboys (-7) (O/U: 48)
Lions: 1-4 (3-2 ATS, 4-1 O/U)
Cowboys: 4-2 (4-2 ATS, 1-4-1 O/U)
This feels like one of those deals where you can get good value ahead of an injury designation. If Dak Prescott plays, then maybe Dallas cover a touchdown — though rust could be a factor. If he sits again, Detroit isn’t a bad bet at this spread.
7
Buccaneers at Panthers (+10.5) (O/U: 40.5)
Bucs: 3-3 (2-4 ATS, 1-5 O/U)
Panthers: 1-5 (1-5 ATS, 2-4 O/U)
These spreads just get bigger and bigger against Carolina, and I’m not sure they can be big enough for me to like the Panthers chances. Even as bad as Tampa looked in its loss to the Steelers.
8
Browns at Ravens (-6.5) (O/U: 46.5)
Browns: 2-4 (2-4 ATS, 5-1 O/U)
Ravens: 3-3 (3-3 ATS, 2-4 O/U)
Cleveland’s inconsistencies makes it a tough team to read, and Baltimore’s consistently bad fourth quarters have to end at some point. The only question is whether they end this week, and it’ll likely come down to if the Browns show up or not.
9
Texans at Raiders (-7) (O/U: 45.5)
Texans: 1-3-1 (3-1-1 ATS, 2-3 O/U)
Raiders: 1-4 (2-3 ATS, 3-2 O/U)
Coming off byes, with veteran coaches, both teams should have effective game plans for the other. The Raiders are more talented, though, which should give them the advantage.
10
Jets at Broncos (-3) (O/U: 42.5)
Jets: 4-2 (4-2 ATS, 3-3 O/U)
Broncos: 2-4 (2-4 ATS, 1-5 O/U)
The Jets have hit their over three times this year, but the Broncos play a little more defense than some of the teams they’ve done better against. And because Denver doesn’t do a lot of scoring, I’d look at the under in this game.
11
Seahawks at Chargers (-7) (O/U: 52.5)
Seahawks: 3-3 (3-3 ATS, 3-3 O/U)
Chargers: 4-2 (4-2 ATS, 3-3 O/U)
Seattle’s defense has been torched by some of the better offenses it’s faced, which leaves open the possibility that Justin Herbert and company come out firing. Seattle would have to play keep up, which sounds like a lot of points.
12
Chiefs at 49ers (+3) (O/U: 48)
Chiefs: 4-2 (2-4 ATS, 3-3 O/U)
49ers: 3-3 (3-3 ATS, 1-5 O/U)
If Jimmy Garoppolo couldn’t keep up with Marcus Mariota and the Falcons, what’s he supposed to do against Patrick Mahomes in a rematch of their Super Bowl meeting? San Fran’s best hope is that the defense bounces back.
13
Steelers at Dolphins (-7) (O/U: 44)
Steelers: 2-4 (2-3-1 ATS, 2-4 O/U)
Dolphins: 3-3 (3-3 ATS, 2-4 O/U)
Tua Tagovailoa is supposedly returning for this game, and yet I’m still a little stunned by the touchdown spread. Miami’s defense hasn’t been all that good, and I’m not sure a quarterback solves all their issues.
14
Bears at Patriots (-8) (O/U: 39.5)
Bears: 2-4 (2-3-1 ATS, 2-4 O/U)
Patriots: 3-3 (3-2-1 ATS, 3-3 O/U)
Bailey Zappe has things looking up for the Pats. Chicago might be able to find some success on the ground in this one, but if New England can jump ahead early, the Bears will struggle to keep up.
