After this week, we’re already one-third of the way through the 2023 NFL season.
As always, there are a slew of games that will be decided by one score. And, in those games, the result often comes down to one or two facets of the matchup.
As we always do, we break down which portions of the games you need to be paying special attention to, giving you some knowledge your friends are almost certainly unaware of.
Here’s what we have going into Week 6:
Baltimore Ravens (3–2) at Tennessee Titans (2–3)
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Key matchup: Titans’ red zone offense against Ravens’ defense.
Tennessee isn’t a high-flying team, but for years a strength has been their play in the red zone with battering ram Derrick Henry. This season, though, the Titans rank tied for 29th, scoring touchdowns inside the opponents’ 20-yard line at only 35.3%.
Meanwhile, the Ravens boost the league’s best red-zone defense, allowing touchdowns on 25% of trips inside their 20-yard line.
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Washington Commanders (2–3) at Atlanta Falcons (3–2)
Key matchup: Washington’s offensive line against Atlanta’s pass rush.
This game is going to be decided up front when the Commanders have the ball. Washington has allowed 29 sacks through five games, second only to the Giants, who have surrendered 30.
While Atlanta has played solid defense, it’s tied for the fewest sacks with five. Whoever wins this battle, wins the game.
Minnesota Vikings (1–4) at Chicago Bears (1–4)
Key matchup: Justin Fields vs. Vikings’ blitz.
Fields has been on fire the past two weeks, throwing for 617 yards and eight touchdowns against the Broncos and Commanders.
However, nobody holds the ball more than Fields, who is tied for the longest pocket time per drop-back at 2.7 seconds. Minnesota will speed him up, with defensive coordinator Brian Flores blitzing a league-high 56.2% of snaps.
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Seattle Seahawks (3–1) at Cincinnati Bengals (2–3)
Key matchup: Bengals’ red zone offense vs. Seattle’s situational defense.
Cincinnati has struggled mightily on offense for much of this season. In fact, the Bengals had only three offensive touchdowns in four games before matching that total last week against the Cardinals.
Still, the Bengals are tied for 24th in red zone percentage (45.5%). However, the Seahawks rank dead last, allowing touchdowns 87.5% of the time. Who wins this battle of weaknesses likely wins Sunday.
San Francisco 49ers (5–0) at Cleveland Browns (2–2)
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Key matchup: Browns’ run defense vs. Christian McCaffrey.
The Browns are tied for the league’s best defense against the run by yards per carry (3.2).
However, the Niners come to Cleveland armed with an MVP candidate in McCaffrey, who has rushed for 510 of San Francisco’s 782 rushing yards, third in the NFL.
Carolina Panthers (0–5) at Miami Dolphins (4–1)
Key matchup: Dolphins’ perimeter speed vs. Panthers’ tacklers.
The Panthers haven’t excelled at much so far this season, but they are good at taking away extra yardage. This year, Carolina has permitted only 459 yards after the catch, tied for seventh best in the NFL.
Conversely, Miami has been a juggernaut with the ball in its hands, racking up an NFL-high 879 yards after the catch.
Indianapolis Colts (3–2) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3–2)
Key matchup: Trevor Lawrence vs. Colts’ back seven.
No team blitzes less often than Indianapolis, which brings extra pressure on 14.7% of snaps.
This will be an interesting test for Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who throws the ball quicker (2.0 seconds per drop-back) than anybody in the league. The Colts will have plenty of bodies to rally and tackle.
New Orleans Saints (3–2) at Houston Texans (2–3)
Key matchup: C.J. Stroud vs. Saints’ pass defense.
Stroud has been the best rookie quarterback of his class, throwing for 1,461 yards and seven touchdowns with no interceptions. Through Stroud’s talent, the Texans have racked up 69 passing first downs, fourth most in the NFL.
New Orleans has a winning record largely because of its suffocating defense. The Saints have been excellent limiting opposing passers, with only 46 such first downs against, tied for third best.
New England Patriots (1–4) at Las Vegas Raiders (2–3)
Key matchup: Raiders’ pressure vs. Mac Jones’s quick release.
Both the Raiders and Patriots have struggled this season. For New England, its offense is one of the league’s worst in myriad ways. However, the Patriots get the ball out quickly, with a 5.1% sack percentage, tied for sixth best in football.
This could exacerbate an issue for the Raiders, who, despite the presence of Maxx Crosby, have the fewest QB hits (17) while sitting 30th in pressure rate (17.1%).
Arizona Cardinals (1–4) at Los Angeles Rams (2–3)
Key matchup: Rams’ offense vs. Cardinals’ third-down defense.
Arizona has been surprisingly competitive this season. However, the defense has been a sieve on third down, ranking 30th by allowing a 47.5% conversion rate.
Offensively, the Rams have been terrific on third down, moving the chains 43.7% of the time, ninth in the league.
Philadelphia Eagles (5–0) at New York Jets (2–3)
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Key matchup: Eagles’ front four vs. Jets’ offensive line.
Sometimes, the matchups jump out at you. This is one of those times. The Jets have struggled to protect Zach Wilson (and Aaron Rodgers), allowing a pressure rate of 32.6%.
The Eagles, who led the league with 70 sacks last season, have an NFL-best 63 pressures in 2023.
Detroit Lions (4–1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3–1)
Key matchup: Jared Goff’s deep shots vs. Buccaneers’ secondary.
Many don’t think of Goff as a deep-ball passer, but he’s been airing it out this season. The Lions rank seventh in completed air yards (762) despite having speedy wideout Jameson Williams for only one game.
The Buccaneers have been very good at limiting throws downfield, allowing just 466 such yards. Only the Giants, Jets and Browns have permitted fewer.
New York Giants (1–4) at Buffalo Bills (3–2)
Key matchup: Bills’ defensive front vs. Giants’ offensive line.
If there’s a bigger mismatch this week, we couldn’t find it. The Giants have been a mess up front—partially because they’ve been without star left tackle Andrew Thomas—allowing a league-worst 30 sacks.
Meanwhile, the Bills have piled up 21 sacks to pace the NFL, even without star edge rusher Von Miller for the first four games.
Dallas Cowboys (3–2) at Los Angeles Chargers (2–2)
Key matchup: Dak Prescott’s downfield throws vs. Chargers’ secondary.
Under coach Mike McCarthy, the Cowboys have become a popgun offense. This season, Dallas is averaging a meager 9.5 yards per completion, tied for 28th best with the Browns.
Yet, this could be the week for Dallas to break out. The Chargers are permitting 12.7 yards per completion, tied with the Commanders for the league’s highest total.
