Welcome back to the power rankings. Please don’t tell anyone that I ever had any other team but the 49ers as No. 1. That would just make me look silly.
At this point, the great mystery of the NFL season begins to take hold: we know which teams are really good, and pretty good. But which teams are going to figure it out and make a run? Someone, somewhere on the back end of this list is going to have a fun end to their season. And while it will be cute to see anyone try and beat the 49ers, I’ll enjoy having some parity among the 31 other plebeian teams in the league.
Darren Yamashita/USA TODAY Sports
1. San Francisco 49ers (5–0)
Last week: win vs. Dallas, 42–10
Next week: at Cleveland
At this moment in time, the 49ers are one of the most unstoppable offensive teams I’ve ever seen. Watching them against a very representative Dallas defense solidified as much for me. This is what happens when a great offensive coach gets his hands on a glut of weapons. Just go back to Sunday and watch how, on each play, one movement completely and irrevocably shifts the defense in a way that unlocks a second door. Brock Purdy, like a wind-up toy, immediately pivots to the place where the opening is going to exist and fires a perfect pass. I know what you’re going to say: this, Conor, is how offenses work. And I understand that. But San Francisco simply has an answer to everything. Even pressure. Brock Purdy is feeling the pocket better than he ever has in his career. George Kittle’s first touchdown from last night is evidence.
2. Philadelphia Eagles (5–0)
Last week: win at Los Angeles Rams, 23–14
Next week: at New York Jets
I’ve decided that Jalen Hurts is the perfect mobile quarterback. You would think Anthony Richardson or Cam Newton or Josh Allen if you were to try and construct something in a laboratory, but Hurts has such a good command of his body, and his build is so much more conducive to taking strategic hits. The Eagles are like the complete, fulfilled promise of what the Ravens set out to be four years ago.
3. Kansas City Chiefs (4–1)
Last week: win at Minnesota, 27–20
Next week: vs. Denver
I understand the Chiefs are good enough to utilize their regular season much in the way the Patriots did during the Tom Brady era, though I wonder at what point they will make a determination as to whether they need to upgrade their weapons the deeper they get into the postseason. Travis Kelce takes on such a responsibility in this offense, and in the postseason, his role will be all the more magnified, creating massive pressure situations for the likes of Kadarius Toney in which to perform. Could they add before the deadline?
4. Detroit Lions (4–1)
Last week: win vs. Carolina, 42–24
Next week: at Tampa Bay
With this kind of emphatic drubbing, the Lions have firmly planted themselves within a small circle of NFL teams capable of winning the Super Bowl. While this isn’t a bold statement, it is kind of an acknowledgement of a sample size. Their weapon set is deep and only getting better. Defensively, the amount of schematic work it took for the Panthers to finally log their first touchdown a few minutes into the second quarter was exhausting. The Lions can get on you fast, and can also keep you pinned on the ground.
5. Dallas Cowboys (3–2)
Last week: loss at San Francisco, 42–10
Next week: at Los Angeles Chargers
What to make of the Cowboys, who demolished the Jets, Giants and Patriots, and lost to the Cardinals and 49ers, the latter in a rout? As it turns out, if you don’t sit back and accept the havoc Micah Parsons causes as an inevitability, there are some options. The 49ers trapped Parsons, they threw quickly on him, and they screened him to death. Now, if you have Trent Williams and a slew of ancillary blocking skill position players, this is possible. But we do have to wonder if the Cowboys can elevate this defense into the stratosphere where it contends with the truly elite offenses of the NFL. The Chargers are coming next, and while they are nowhere near as talented as the 49ers, they will be taxing on a worn defense.
6. Miami Dolphins (4–1)
Last week: win vs. New York Giants, 31–16
Next week: vs. Carolina
Two aspects of this win worth mentioning. The first? Tua Tagovailoa has been getting so much better at making the right decisions when the play breaks down. He is not simply an over-schemed quarterback having success. Second? Butch Barry has made a huge difference with this offensive line. We are fascinated with the Dolphins busting long runs. We are less likely to point out that the holes are there up front.
7. Buffalo Bills (3–2)
Last week: loss vs. Jacksonville, 25–20
Next week: vs. New York Giants
The Bills could lose by 40 but still satiate my desire for attractive football by uncorking more Josh Allen toes-on-the-goal-line deep shots to Stefon Diggs. Seriously, how beautiful are those? Allen is like a way more athletic Ben Roethlisberger, who can single handedly drag a team on his back like the one good guy in a pickup gym run. The problem is that this offense gains and loses its status as an unstoppable force via their ability to run the football. Too often, they lose patience.
8. Baltimore Ravens (3–2)
Last week: loss at Pittsburgh, 17–10
Next week: at Tennessee
The Ravens had this one in the bag. There were so many once-in-a-blue-moon hiccups, especially with the way Lamar Jackson was reading his receivers’ intentions, or simply receiver drops. I wouldn’t read too much into it. Baltimore is still generating turnover-worthy, free-runner blitzes every game. Jackson looks more comfortable and full of options than he ever has. Had he looked off Damontae Kazee and gone over the top to Mark Andrews at the end of the fourth quarter instead of lofting a pick in the corner of the end zone, we’d be talking about how Baltimore looks like they’re gaining separation in the AFC North.
9. Seattle Seahawks (3–1)
Last week: BYE
Next week: at Cincinnati
The Seahawks are coming out of their bye at 3–1, despite being 24th in yards surrendered and 19th in yards gained. We will learn a lot about the near future of the Seahawks this coming week in Cincinnati, squaring off against a magically revived Joe Burrow. Speaking of which ...
Mark J. Rebilas/USA TODAY Sports
10. Cincinnati Bengals (2–3)
Last week: win at Arizona, 34–20
Next week: vs. Seattle
Joe Burrow is suddenly mobile? How? Burrow’s throwing motion looked a little bit different on Sunday. We mentioned on the podcast this week that when he got to his final step in the drop back, he looked a little bit like Rookie of the Year’s Henry Rowengartner corking back his arm and launching fastballs. Whatever helps. This was a complementary game for the Bengals, who logged a defensive touchdown before the absolutely beautiful long ball from Burrow to Ja’Marr Chase that we may view as the restart button on the 2023 season. What kind of moron would suggest that the Bengals should sit the rest of this season out?
11. Los Angeles Chargers (2–2)
Last week: BYE
Next week: vs. Dallas
After a completely wild opening stanza to their season, the Chargers have a chance to define the 2023 season over the course of two games. Dallas and Kansas City back to back will give us a chance to see how Kellen Moore reacts to a defense that knows him intimately well, and the team that the Chargers are theoretically built to contend with.
12. Jacksonville Jaguars (3–2)
Last week: win at Buffalo, 25–20
Next week: vs. Indianapolis
The realization of Travis Etienne as a kind of high-powered, most-downs Jerick McKinnon was a boon for the Jaguars, and helped them survive a true slugfest against the Bills in London. This game was chaotic, but the Jaguars, like the Chargers, are capable of moving the chains via unstoppable cross-field throws that few other teams can complete with regularity. They have one of the better gluts of talent in the NFL and, if used correctly, can buoy them.
13. Pittsburgh Steelers (3–2)
Last week: win vs. Baltimore, 17–10
Next week: BYE
Like the Jets or the Cowboys, Steeler victories dependent on game-changing turnovers are not necessarily sustainable wins, and yet they keep finding them. So, who are we to tell them that muddying the water isn’t a game plan strategy? Props to Matt Canada, who looks like all of us when we’re approached unknowingly while listening to a podcast when he hits on an absolute home run.
14. New York Jets (2–3)
Last week: win at Denver, 31–21
Next week: vs. Philadelphia
I’ve seen over the last two weeks some confident mobility from Zach Wilson, who has run more times over the last two games (9) than he has over the first three weeks (6). While it doesn’t make a huge difference, it does signal that the timer is clicking in Wilson’s head. He now has the pocket feel to better sense when a play is breaking down and he is costing the Jets less on a down-by-down basis. Seems like good coaching to me, along with a willing pupil.
15. Atlanta Falcons (3–2)
Last week: win vs. Houston, 21–19
Next week: vs. Washington
Credit is due to Desmond Ridder, who battled in this one. Ridder had his best quarterback rating since a Week 1 win over the Panthers but here’s the main difference: he almost doubled his net yards per attempt average. Ridder was pushing the ball down the field a little bit more in this one, and he avoided the costly gut-punch mistakes as well as the drive-altering sacks. Drake London and Kyle Pitts punctuate Atlanta’s aggression advantage at the catch point.
16. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3–1)
Last week: BYE
Next week: vs. Detroit
Welcome back from the bye, Tampa Bay. I count three or four “easy” games remaining on the schedule. We start back up against the Detroit Lions, who are playing better than almost any team in football. Still, the Bucs don’t turn the ball over, they force a lot of turnovers, and sometimes, the muscle memory carries over from wins over bad teams to start the season.
17. New Orleans Saints (3–2)
Last week: win at New England, 34–0
Next week: at Houston
The Saints are one of the best passing defenses in the NFL. They have not allowed a 30-point performance to any of their opponents, and while their opposing quarterbacks so far this year have been Bryce Young, Mac Jones, Ryan Tannehill, Jordan Love and Baker Mayfield, they have treated them with their due respect (or lack thereof). Credit to Dennis Allen for clawing his way out of the hole he was left in. Derek Carr had his best game in black and gold.
Robert Scheer/USA TODAY NETWORK
18. Indianapolis Colts (3–2)
Last week: win vs. Tennessee, 23–16
Next week: at Jacksonville
The loss of Anthony Richardson has again highlighted the Colts’ play calling flexibility, but also underscores the fallacy of hoping to see Richardson complete an entire season. The blueprint on how to handle quarterbacks of this size with a penchant for running isn’t pretty for guys like Richardson. Ask Cam Newton. It’s a hard life. Richardson has a lot of body for defenders to take shots at, and two Titans contributed to his AC joint sprain on a designed run Sunday.
19. Cleveland Browns (2–2)
Last week: BYE
Next week: vs. San Francisco
The Browns take on the 49ers this week after a bye, which should help with some of the uncertainty at the quar…well, never mind! At least it’s just the San Francisco 49ers who are coming to town.
20. Green Bay Packers (2–3)
Last week: loss at Las Vegas, 17–13
Next week: BYE
An absolutely listless performance against the Raiders on Monday Night Football puts Green Bay into its bye week with a terribly sour feeling. The good news is that the Vikings and Broncos await. This will be one of those losses they look back on at the end of the season and kick themselves. They are clearly better than Las Vegas.
21. Los Angeles Rams (2–3)
Last week: loss vs. Philadelphia, 23–14
Next week: vs. Arizona
Continue buying low on the Rams, who, at the height of their Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp powers will be maddening. Watch Nacua and Kupp run routes next to each other. It’s like watching a synchronized diving team. Having two receivers who understand how to manipulate leverage that well will change the game for the Rams, who will eventually streamline their running game to complement.
22. Houston Texans (2–3)
Last week: loss at Atlanta, 21–19
Next week: vs. New Orleans
One of those games where the shots simply didn’t fall for Houston, and that’s O.K. If I’m a Texans fan, all I really care about is that C.J. Stroud came back in that game and threw a go-ahead touchdown. This Texans team possibly has an outside shot at the division, but far more important is the idea that Stroud is getting comfortable in the uncomfortable. Was that reflected on his S2 score?
23. Tennessee Titans (2–3)
Last week: loss at Indianapolis, 23–16
Next week: vs. Baltimore
Less than half of Titans games this year have featured Derrick Henry over 3.3 yards per carry. The Titans were also stuffed with their mauler of a running back on fourth-and-1 deep inside Indianapolis territory on a drive that could have altered the outcome in this one. The Titans are going to vacillate between classic Titans and post-Henry Titans. This was one of those games where the old magic wasn’t quite there.
24. Washington Commanders (2–3)
Last week: loss vs. Chicago, 40–20
Next week: at Atlanta
Some team was going to take the brunt of Chicago’s built up angst and frustration. That team ended up being the Washington Commanders, who are 2–3 coming off the mini-break from playing Thursday. With a pair of road games coming up against the Falcons and Giants, we could easily see Ron Rivera’s club at 4–3, positioning themselves for the playoff race, or 2–5, positioning themselves for Caleb Williams.
25. New England Patriots (1–4)
Last week: loss vs. New Orleans, 34–0
Next week: at Las Vegas
The Patriots have gone from “you can scheme up Mac Jones” to “my God if anyone gets into that pocket he’s going to throw a pick.” Playing quarterback in this league is hard, but how much harder do the Patriots make it look? The fake tush-push toss-back fumble was the epitome of how lost in the woods this version of Bill Belichick’s club has become. More thoughts on the state of the Patriots here.
Danielle Parhizkaran/USA TODAY Network
26. New York Giants (1–4)
Last week: loss at Miami, 31–16
Next week: at Buffalo
There isn’t much to say at this point about the Giants other than we’re teetering on lost season territory. I would say this: If they cannot come out of the year building Kayvon Thibodeaux into an elite, every-down threat, and if they cannot come out of the year with Evan Neal feeling confident enough to anchor one side of the line consistently, then it’s going to be all the more difficult for the Giants to compete in 2024. I think they’re up to the task, but this slump has been concerning. I did see some solid moments from Neal, and some notable aggression on some run blocking downs. I do think he’s become “that guy” and is getting crushed for most offensive line mistakes.
27. Minnesota Vikings (1–4)
Last week: loss vs. Kansas City, 27–20
Next week: at Chicago
The Vikings didn’t play poorly on Sunday, they just played the Chiefs. To hold Kansas City scoreless in the fourth quarter, especially hanging tough defensively during a critical third-and-short situation, shows that the Vikings are at least still playing for each other. I thought their final scoring opportunity was a major whiff. For a former quarterback calling plays for another quarterback to leave Kirk Cousins in a situation where he’d be pummeled in a clear pressure situation was a letdown. The Vikings should have been able to make Kansas City work a little harder for this.
28. Arizona Cardinals (1–4)
Last week: loss vs. Cincinnati, 34–20
Next week: at Los Angeles Rams
Even after this team gave up a pick-six and a Ja’Marr Chase deep ball touchdown, here they were marching back down the field, scoring a touchdown with undrafted rookie Emari Demercado. Another incredible effort from Arizona, who are going to upset one of the next few favored teams on their schedule.
29. Las Vegas Raiders (2–3)
Last week: win vs. Green Bay, 17–13Next week: vs. New England
The Raiders snapped a three-game losing streak on Monday Night Football. While it can never be beautiful, and their head coach called for an analytically un-sound field goal that put the game on Vegas’s defense, a win is a win nonetheless.
30. Chicago Bears (1–4)
Last week: win at Washington, 40–20
Next week: vs. Minnesota
Eight touchdowns and one interception over the last two weeks for Justin Fields. While I am not telling everyone that all is well, I am saying that we should take a moment to notice an offensive staff that is responding to what they are learning about their quarterback in real time. Certainly, facing off against the Broncos and Commanders in back-to-back weeks helps your confidence. But with the Vikings and Raiders coming down the pike, why can’t they be hoping to play for .500 in Los Angeles just before Halloween?
31. Denver Broncos (1–4)
Last week: loss vs. New York Jets, 31–21
Next week: at Kansas City
This will go down as another game where the Broncos couldn’t stop the run and, thus, all else failed as a result. Denver is dead last in yards per attempt and total rushing yards surrendered. I don’t think Vance Joseph forgot how to coach, but it does shed a little light on how well Ejiro Evero performed in the same spot a year ago with similar personnel. For more thoughts on Denver’s current head coach, you can find a Sunday column here.
32. Carolina Panthers (0–5)
Last week: loss at Detroit, 42–24
Next week: at Miami
I think we’re seeing some interesting looks from Carolina and certainly some progress from Bryce Young. The RPO touchdown to Tommy Tremble on Sunday was a great design, and so were the two Laviska Shenault carries that preceded it. It’s weird, you know. Young has been doing a lot of the advanced stuff well since the start of the season. He’s throwing receivers open on third-and-10 plus. To me, it outweighs stuff like the second-quarter interception, where, I think, Young thought he was doing a better job of manipulating a defender, and perhaps had a little too much confidence in his arm talent. But Carolina is so disadvantaged from a talent standpoint. And, they are fumbling away balls after a potential momentum-swinging fourth-down stop. They are dooming themselves.
