If you’re coming here looking for picks, that’s not what this is. We’ll get to those later in the week.
This right here is an early betting preview of the upcoming action in the NFL, with a first impression of each game and betting line, with a few trends and hints sprinkled in. Sometimes, bettors can overthink things and talk themselves out of making the right pick. So these are just baseline thoughts before we take a deeper dive into the numbers later in the week.
Spreads and over/under numbers are from BetMGM and likely to change after this is published.
Colts at Broncos -3.5
Colts: 1-2-1 (1-3 ATS, 0-4 O/U)
Broncos: 2-2 (1-3 ATS, 1-3 O/U)
This is a meeting between the two most disappointing teams in the NFL, and my mind immediately goes to the under with the total currently set at 43.5 points. Neither offense has been able to produce consistently, and I’m not sure either defense is going to allow that to change in this game.
Giants vs. Packers -8 (London)
Giants: 3-1 (3-1 ATS, 0-3-1 O/U)
Packers: 3-1 (2-2 ATS, 1-3 O/U)
Both teams are 3-1, but their preseason outlooks couldn’t have been more different and paint the lens through which we view this matchup. The Packers are heavy favorites and feel like they should be. But after the Pats just took them to overtime in Green Bay, why can’t the Giants keep things within a score?
Falcons at Buccaneers -8.5
Falcons: 2-2 (4-0 ATS, 3-1 O/U)
Bucs: 2-2 (2-2 ATS, 1-3 O/U)
Tampa’s offense finally came to life in its loss to the Chiefs on Sunday night, but the Bucs may not need much to beat the Falcons. Cordarrelle Patterson landed on the injured reserve Monday, robbing Atlanta of its most valuable offensive weapon through four games.
Titans at Commanders +2.5
Titans: 2-2 (2-2 ATS, 2-2 O/U)
Commanders: 1-3 (1-3 ATS, 2-2 O/U)
This is technically a reprieve for the Commanders after brutal division losses to the Eagles and Cowboys. And yet, they’re still home underdogs in this one. The Titans are feeling a little better about themselves after a big road win over the Colts.
Seahawks at Saints -5.5
Seahawks: 2-2 (2-2 ATS, 2-2 O/U)
Saints: 1-3 (1-3 ATS, 2-2 O/U)
This line feels a little too wide. Geno Smith is balling! Can he get an outright win in New Orleans against a more competent defense than Detroit? My guess is no, but I’m not writing him off. He hasn’t been writing back lately.
Bears at Vikings -7
Bears: 2-2 (1-2-1 ATS, 1-3 O/U)
Vikings: 3-1 (1-3 ATS, 2-2 O/U)
The Bears stink. They couldn’t cover this spread against a Giants team that struggles to score. So I’m having a hard time seeing how they’ll cover a touchdown against an offense that features Justin Jefferson.
Lions at Patriots -3
Lions: 1-3 (3-1 ATS, 4-0 O/U)
Patriots: 1-3 (1-2-1 ATS, 2-2 O/U)
Imagine scoring 45 points one week and still being three-point dogs the next week to a team likely rolling out a backup quarterback. That’s the life of the Lions, a team whose defense can’t stop anybody. I’m eyeing the over in this game for that reason, because while Detroit will give up some points, I still think they can find a way to score in Foxboro.
Texans at Jaguars -7
Texans: 0-3-1 (2-1-1 ATS, 2-2 O/U)
Jaguars: 2-2 (2-2 ATS, 3-1 O/U)
This line is about right, but it still feels weird seeing Jacksonville favored by this many points. I can’t remember the last time the Jaguars were favored at all, let alone favored by a touchdown. It’ll be curious to see how the young team responds to these expectations.
Dolphins at Jets +3
Dolphins: 3-1 (3-1 ATS, 1-3 O/U)
Jets: 2-2 (2-2 ATS, 2-2 O/U)
Zach Wilson made some nice plays in his debut for the Jets, and now he’ll get the Dolphins without Tua Tagovailoa. I’m not really expecting a significant dip in Miami’s production with Teddy Bridgewater under center.
Steelers at Bills -14
Steelers: 1-3 (1-2-1 ATS, 2-2 O/U)
Bills: 3-1 (2-2 ATS, 1-3 O/U)
If it’s going to be Kenny Pickett at quarterback for Pittsburgh, this is a tough, tough game for him to be making his first career start. I wouldn’t love Mitchell Trubisky’s chances either, but a rookie doesn’t exactly increase my confidence in the Steelers’ ability to hang with Buffalo.
Chargers at Browns +3
Chargers: 2-2 (3-1 ATS, 2-2 O/U)
Browns: 2-2 (2-2 ATS, 3-1 O/U)
This line feels small. The Chargers should be more than three points better than Cleveland. The Browns just lost to Atlanta for crying out loud.
49ers at Panthers +5
49ers: 2-2 (2-2 ATS, 0-4 O/U)
Panthers: 1-3 (1-3 ATS, 1-3 O/U)
Carolina’s offense is pitiful and San Francisco’s defense isn’t the unit you want to be trying to get it together against. I don’t expect Baker Mayfield to have a fun time here.
Cowboys at Rams -4.5
Cowboys: 3-1 (3-1 ATS, 0-3-1 O/U)
Rams: 2-2 (1-3 ATS, 1-3 O/U)
After watching how the Rams offensive line was exposed by the Niners on Monday, I’m not sure they’re 4.5 points better than the Cowboys. How exactly do they plan on protecting Matthew Stafford with Micah Parsons flying off the edge? Not to mention, Dak Prescott could be making his return.
Eagles at Cardinals +5.5
Eagles: 4-0 (3-1 ATS, 2-2 O/U)
Cardinals: 2-2 (2-2 ATS, 1-3 O/U)
The Eagles haven’t exactly put teams away the way a championship-level team should, but they continue to win and that’s what matters most. This game feels like a spot they can finally put it together for a full 60 minutes.
Bengals at Ravens -3
Bengals: 2-2 (2-2 ATS, 0-4 O/U)
Ravens: 2-2 (3-1 ATS, 2-2 O/U)
Baltimore’s continued defensive meltdowns make me nervous. This is a spread I could see them covering for 50 minutes of the game, only to blow late in the fourth quarter. Also worth considering Cincinnati smoked them in both games last season.
Raiders at Chiefs -7
Raiders: 1-3 (1-3 ATS, 2-2 O/U)
Chiefs: 3-1 (2-2 ATS, 2-2 O/U)
Vegas’ best chance in this one is if Josh Jacobs continues to run the ball the way he did against Denver in Week 4. That moves the ball for the Raiders and keeps Patrick Mahomes on the sideline. Easier said than done, of course.
