The first two weeks of the NFL season delivered plenty of unexpected chaos. Many were quick to overreact to Week 1 games, leading to several upsets in Week 2. Consider yourself lucky if you’re still alive in your respective survivor pool.
Perhaps Week 3 is when the dust settles on surprising 2–0 teams, possibly displaying whether they’ll be playoff contenders this season.
The undefeated Minnesota Vikings proved doubters wrong in Week 2 after upsetting the San Francisco 49ers in a game that wasn’t as close as the final score indicated. The Vikings’ stifling defense is now aiming to give the Houston Texans their first loss of the season. These two teams essentially swapped standout edge rushers, with Danielle Hunter leaving Minnesota for the Texans and Jonathan Greenard leaving Houston for the Vikings.
The New Orleans Saints have also surprised many, especially with how dominant they were in the rout of the Dallas Cowboys last week. Derek Carr has gained way-too-early MVP chatter for the chemistry he has displayed with downfield weapons Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed. New Orleans’s offense could be a problem for the Philadelphia Eagles’ struggling defense Sunday. Perhaps the Eagles are more pretenders than contenders after beating the Green Bay Packers in Week 1 followed by blowing a late lead to the Atlanta Falcons in Week 2.
The NFL public will likely learn plenty about the undefeated Los Angeles Chargers and Pittsburgh Steelers in their meeting Sunday in Pittsburgh. These are just three of five matchups we have highlighted for our best games of the week. Below we break down the five games and share all the information you need to know, including Gilberto Manzano’s key matchups, Matt Verderame’s key stats, Michael Fabiano’s who to start and who to sit in fantasy, Jennifer Piacenti’s best bets and Conor Orr’s prediction for each game.
Start ’em/Sit ’em | MMQB Staff Picks | NFL Betting Picks
Sunday
Houston Texans (2–0) at Minnesota Vikings (2–0)
When/TV: 1 p.m. ET CBS
Spread: Texans -2 (over/under 46)
Matchup to watch: Vikings DE Jonathan Greenard vs. Texans LT Laremy Tunsil. These two know each other well from their four seasons together in Houston. Greenard is off to a fast start in Minnesota, recording a sack in last week’s win against the 49ers. It will be up to Tunsil and his offensive line to protect C.J. Stroud against a Vikings’ defense which has a league-leading 11 sacks. —Gilberto Manzano
Key stat: Under defensive coordinator Brian Flores, Minnesota ranks second in pressure rate at 38.7%. Conversely, Houston is allowing the seventh-worst pressure rate at 28.6%. —Matt Verderame
Start ’em/sit ’em: Stroud is coming off a down week, scoring 14.3 points. I’d keep the faith in him, however, as he’ll face the Vikings in a game that has a high total of 46. Dating back to last season, Minnesota’s defense has allowed the fourth-most points to visiting quarterbacks. —Michael Fabiano
Best bet: Sam Darnold over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+140). We played this prop in plus money and it cashed last week, and we are playing it again. Houston has been able to limit the run game, but for plus money, I’ll bet they can’t keep a lid on Justin Jefferson. The Texans allowed two passing TDs to Anthony Richardson in Week 1, and Darnold owns the seventh-highest passer rating this season. —Jennifer Piacenti
SI’s pick: I took the Vikings and also took note that our editor and supposed Vikings superfan John Pluym did not. I think Flores is on an epic heater right now and he’ll take the Bears game plan from last week thrown down by Matt Eberflus and build it into something that gives Stroud some headaches. Flores just toppled the Godfather of the Shanahan tree and is now coming for a pair of its underbosses running the Texans. —Conor Orr
Philadelphia (1–1) at New Orleans (2–0)
When/TV: 1 p.m. ET Fox
Spread: Saints -2.5 (over/under 49.5)
Matchup to watch: Saints WR Rashid Shaheed vs. Eagles CB Quinyon Mitchell. The rookie cornerback might be the lone bright spot in a struggling secondary that got old fast. Mitchell has 4.33 speed to keep pace with Shaheed, who has two touchdowns of 50-plus yards this season. Even if Mitchell manages to contain New Orleans’s vertical threat, the Eagles still have to account for Chris Olave. —Manzano
Key stat: The Saints lead the league in yards per play (6.9), points per game (45.5), net yards per pass attempt (10.5) and drives ending in a score (76.2%). Meanwhile, the Eagles rank 32nd, 28th, 27th and 28th, respectively, in those categories on defense. —Verderame
Start ’em/sit ’em: The Saints offense has scored a bananas 91 points in the first two weeks, which is crazy impressive. As a result, I’d start Carr against the Eagles. Their defense has allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks (20.2 PPG) since the start of last season. —Fabiano
Best bet: Saints -2.5 (-118). I’m buying. Klint Kubiak has sold me. The New Orleans defense is a far superior unit to Philadelphia’s, and Alvin Kamara and Carr should both feast Sunday. The Saints can surely beat an Eagles team missing A.J. Brown by at least a field goal. —Piacenti
SI’s pick: Eagles. This is game-of-the-week quality right now. The hottest team in the NFL versus its most desperate. The Eagles know that after last season, stopping the bleeding after a disappointing loss is paramount before issues start to grow and become more significant. I’m taking the Eagles because they have no other choice but to win. —Orr
Los Angeles Chargers (2–0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (2–0)
When/TV: 1 p.m. ET CBS
Spread: Steelers -1.5 (over/under 36)
Matchup to watch: Chargers RB J.K. Dobbins vs. Steelers’ defensive front. Dobbins might be the early favorite for Comeback Player of the Year, rushing for 266 yards through two games. Justin Herbert hasn’t thrown for 150 yards in a game, but that hasn’t been an issue because of Dobbins. It will be critical for the Steelers’ front to make them one dimensional. —Manzano
Key stat: Can the Chargers run the ball on the Steelers? Los Angeles is fifth in EPA per run at 0.064, but Pittsburgh has thrown up a brick wall defensively, ranking third in that category at -0.294. —Verderame
Start ’em/sit ’em: Dobbins has been on fire, scoring 43 fantasy points while averaging an insane 9.9 yards per rush. He should remain in the RB2 conversation, going against a Steelers defense allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to visiting runners since last season. —Fabiano
Best bet: Chargers ML (+102). Both teams are 2–0 and both teams have allowed fewer than nine points per game this season. However, the Chargers have averaged 24 points per game while the Steelers have mustered only 15.5. It’s hard to see Justin Fields having a big day against a top Chargers defensive unit. The under at 36 feels like a trap, so I’ll bet on the road dogs here in plus money instead. —Piacenti
SI’s pick: Chargers. I wanted to take Pittsburgh here but this is the first time the Steelers are facing a team with a superstar at quarterback. Jim Harbaugh isn’t going to put Herbert in the kind of position the Falcons put Kirk Cousins in the first week and Herbert is also way better than Bo Nix. Harbaugh is also going to prod for weaknesses in this run defense. —Orr
Baltimore Ravens (0–2) at Dallas Cowboys (1–1)
When/TV: 4:25 p.m. ET Fox
Spread: Ravens -1 (over/under 48)
Matchup to watch: Ravens QB Lamar Jackson vs. Cowboys DE Micah Parsons. Jackson has had to do the bulk of the work offensively due to the lack of depth at wide receiver and a poor offensive line. But Jackson has a reputation for making plays amid chaos, and it will be on Parsons and his defensive teammates to make sure Jackson doesn’t escape the pocket often. —Manzano
Key stat: Which team can get its passing game going first? Baltimore ranks 20th in drop-back EPA at -0.017, while Dallas sits 27th at -0.191. Jackson and Dak Prescott finished first and second in MVP voting last year, but haven’t looked the part so far. —Verderame
Start ’em/sit ’em: Derrick Henry isn’t getting as many touches as fantasy fans would like, but he’s still finding the end zone. He’ll be motivated to succeed against the Cowboys, who Henry thought would be interested in him as a free agent. Their defense just got smashed by Kamara, too. —Fabiano
Best bet: Ravens ML (-112). As a Cowboys fan, I hope this works as a reverse jinx, but I don’t see how a Ravens team looking for their first win doesn’t run all over the Cowboys’ pathetic run defense with Jackson and Henry. —Jennifer Piacenti
SI’s pick: Ravens. Going from the Saints to the Ravens is a dizzying stylistic shift and will be a tough challenge for Cowboys DC Mike Zimmer. I wonder if the former Vikings coach is going old school and will try to pin Jackson in the pocket with a speedy defender. I wonder if Jackson can show Zimmer just how far he’s evolved since Jackson made up a 14-point deficit and came back to beat Zimmer’s Vikings in 2021. —Orr
San Francisco 49ers (1–1) at Los Angeles Rams (0–2)
When/TV: 4:25 p.m. ET Fox
Spread: 49ers -7 (over/under 44.5)
Matchup to watch: Rams RB Kyren Williams vs. 49ers LB Fred Warner. Williams will need to step up with wide receivers Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp sidelined. But Williams hasn’t been as good as last season because the injury bug has also hit the offensive line. Now, Williams has to make plays against a formidable defense led by Warner. —Manzano
Key stat: The Los Angeles defense ranks 31st in EPA per play at 0.221. Although the Niners—who are 12th offensively in EPA/play at 0.025—are without Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffrey, that could be a tough obstacle to overcome when considering the Rams’ crush of injuries. —Verderame
Start ’em/sit ’em: George Kittle might be low-hanging fruit, but tight end is very thin right now. He faces the Rams, who have allowed nine touchdowns and the second-most fantasy points to tight ends since last season. Kittle has also averaged 14.4 points in his 12 career meetings against them. —Fabiano
Best bet: Brandon Aiyuk over 63.5 receiving yards (-120). Aiyuk moves into the WR1 role for the 49ers with no Samuel. The Rams have allowed an NFL-high 11.6 yards per catch to opposing wideouts this season and an NFL-high 293 yards to receivers lined up out wide. Aiyuk should be in for a big day. —Piacenti
SI’s pick: 49ers. Kyle Shanahan’s consistent besting of Sean McVay is going to last another round, especially now that the Rams are beaten up. This is an ideal opponent at an ideal time for a get-right game after the 49ers had their trunks pulled down in Minnesota a week ago. While the 49ers are also injured, they have a bit more depth remaining at this point. —Orr
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as NFL Week 3: Best Games, Key Matchups, Fantasy Tips, Best Bets and Predictions .
