The day Jalen Hurts’ shoulder injury was reported two weeks ago, his MVP odds tumbled from -150 to +150, moving him from the favorite for the award to second-favorite behind Patrick Mahomes.
After missing his second straight game Sunday, those odds are all the way down to +1500 at Tipico Sportsbook, behind Mahomes, Joe Burrow and Josh Allen. If voting goes the way of the odds, it appears Hurts’ short absence will cost him the NFL’s most prestigious individual award.
It probably should have strengthened his case.
The best way to for a player to show value is to play incredible football while leading their team to the most wins in the league. An alternate way is by missing games and their team not being nearly as good without them.
Both have occurred for Hurts. In just two games without their star quarterback, the Philadelphia Eagles have more losses (0-2) than they did in 14 games with him (13-1). The latest loss, to the Saints, saw the Eagles post a season-low 10 points — that’s one week after the team allowed a season-high 40 points. Both results can be tied back to the quarterback.
Even after missing games, Hurts still has as many wins as Mahomes and more than Allen (12) and Burrow (11). The only difference now is those players’ stats have a little extra padding with more games. If you were already leaning towards one of them for MVP before Hurts was injured, you’re probably fully in on that player now. But if Hurts was your MVP two weeks ago, you have to ask yourself, what’s actually happened to change that?
Charged up for the playoffs
Could the Los Angeles Chargers be that team to ride a late-season surge to an improbable Super Bowl run?
Their 21-point win over the Rams on Sunday is just the type of game to suggest it’s possible. Not only was it their biggest win of the season and second-most points scored, it was also their fourth straight outright win and third time covering the spread in that stretch. Since falling to 5-5, they’ve won five of six games and can somehow finish the season with 11 wins after a final tune-up against the Denver Broncos.
More importantly, the Chargers are getting healthy at just the right time. They have the fourth-best odds to win the AFC at Tipico.
Another team finishing strong in the AFC are the Jacksonville Jaguars, who dominated the Texans on Sunday. But they still have to win in the final week to clinch a playoff berth. The Chargers are already in, and they could be a scary first-round opponent for whoever they’re matched up against.
Is this your king (of the north)?
If there’s a team opposite of someone nobody wants to see right now, it’s the Minnesota Vikings.
I mean, sure, they’re 12-4 and still alive for the top seed in the NFC. But with a -19 point differential that ranks ninth in the conference, they might be the most unimpressive 12-4 team we’ve ever seen.
Bettors know it. Despite their superior record, the Vikings were three-point road dogs to the 7-8 Green Bay Packers on Sunday. And though 56% of the public picked Minnesota to cover, according to Action Network data, 60% of moneyline bets were on the Packers.
Not only was the game not close, Minnesota failed to cover for the fourth straight game and the point total over hit for the sixth straight Vikings game. This team bleeds points, and it’s not where they want to be as the postseason approaches.
Conversely, the Packers have put themselves in a win-and-in scenario for Week 18, and Vegas trusts them more than they trust the Vikings. Green Bay’s odds to win the Super Bowl are +2500 at BetMGM, better than Minnesota’s +3000.
Plane down
It wasn’t long ago that the New York Jets had the look of a Cinderella team, poised to end the NFL’s longest postseason drought and potentially win a playoff game behind a stout defense.
Now, they’re completely eliminated from postseason contention after a 23-6 loss to the Seattle Seahawks, who kept their own postseason hopes alive.
With Seattle in the middle of its own end-of-season collapse, having lost three straight and five of six, the Jets were favored by 1.5 points on the road. According to Action Network, 61% of bets on the spread favored New York and 81% of the moneyline handle was on the Jets.
They didn’t come close to rewarding that public faith, and now another long offseason awaits the Jets front office.
