We now have something called “NFL Holiday Remix,” thanks to the league forcing Christmas games on a Wednesday.
The Kansas City Chiefs, Pittsburgh Steelers, Baltimore Ravens and Houston Texans are involved in the two-game medley in five days. On Saturday, the Chiefs got the best of the Texans and the Ravens defeated the Steelers. But to kick off Week 17 on Christmas Day, we’ll have Kansas City in Pittsburgh and Baltimore in Houston for the first NFL games on Netflix.
Get used to hearing “NFL Holiday Remix” if both games deliver plenty of cheers. But regardless of how the product looks on the field for this two-game sprint, there will be plenty on the line when it comes to the playoff standings. The Chiefs can clinch the AFC’s No. 1 seed if they get by the Steelers, who are fighting with the Ravens for the AFC North title.
There will also be playoff implications for Saturday’s matchup between the Denver Broncos and Cincinnati Bengals, whose playoff hopes are alive and well thanks to a three-game winning streak. Denver can clinch a playoff spot with a win in Cincinnati.
For Sunday’s slate, no game is bigger than the NFC North showdown between the Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings. And there could be a shootout brewing between the Atlanta Falcons and Washington Commanders for Sunday Night Football.
Here’s everything you need to know about the five best games of the week, including Gilberto Manzano’s key matchups, Matt Verderame’s key stats, Michael Fabiano’s fantasy football advice, Iain MacMillan’s best bets and Conor Orr’s prediction for each game.
Start ’em/Sit ’em | NFL Betting Picks
WEDNESDAY
Kansas City Chiefs (14–1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (10–5)
When/TV: 1 p.m. ET, Netflix
Spread: Chiefs -3 (over/under: 43.5)
Matchup to watch: Steelers WR George Pickens vs. Chiefs CB Trent McDuffie. All signs point toward Pickens being cleared from his hamstring injury, which has sidelined him for the past three games. Russell Wilson and the offense have struggled during Pickens’s absence, leading to a two-game losing streak. Pickens, who has 850 receiving yards this season, could put plenty of stress on a Chiefs secondary that has struggled at times. But McDuffie, who has two interceptions this season, is capable of slowing star wideouts. —Manzano
Key stat: The Steelers have taken the ball away a league-leading 31 times this season, and recorded at least one takeaway in every game since Week 4. Kansas City, though, hasn’t committed a turnover in each of its past five contests. —Verderame
Start ’em/sit ’em: So much for that high ankle sprain! Patrick Mahomes put up 23.7 fantasy points in last week’s win over the Texans, his best stat line since Week 11. I still say it’s tough to trust him in championship week with a tough matchup on the road against the Steelers. Their defense has allowed only seven scoring strikes and 12.7 points per game to opposing quarterbacks in Pittsburgh this season, making Mahomes a bit of a gamble. —Fabiano
Best bet: (Steelers +3) The Chiefs will enter this game with some bad injury luck. Not only will the Steelers likely get Pickens back for the first time in a few weeks, but they have some major injuries of their own they have to deal with including Chris Jones, Jawaan Taylor and Jack Cochrane. That’s going to be tough for Kansas City to deal with on the road in a short week. With the Steelers getting a field goal on their home field, I’ll take the points with Pittsburgh. —MacMillan
SI’s pick: I picked the Steelers but am unsure why at this point. The Chiefs are going to win by four points or fewer, the defense is going to challenge Pittsburgh and force Wilson into high-degree-of-difficulty throws and the Steelers will have another long weekend to reckon with who they are going into the postseason. —Orr
Baltimore Ravens (10–5) at Houston Texans (9–6)
When/TV: 4:30 p.m. ET, Netflix
Spread: Ravens -5.5 (over/under: 46.5)
Matchup to watch: Texans RB Joe Mixon vs. Ravens LB Roquan Smith. Perhaps the only way the Texans can pull off an upset on Christmas Day is by playing keep away with Lamar Jackson’s offense. Mixon has killed plenty of clock during his first season with the Texans, but he has struggled to get going in the past two games, rushing for a combined 80 yards and no touchdowns. Smith’s defense is allowing a league-best 83.1 rushing yards per game. —Manzano
Key stat: Baltimore’s offense has been a machine, ranking first in yards per play at 6.9. However, the Ravens will have tough sledding against the Texans, who check in third in YPP against at 5.0. —Verderame
Start ’em/sit ’em: C.J. Stroud has been one of the biggest fantasy duds of the season, failing to score more than 16.1 points in nine consecutive games. Next up is a bad matchup against the Ravens, whose defense has surrendered fewer than 18 fantasy points to each of their past five opposing quarterbacks. Stroud also lost Tank Dell for the season, so his weapons have decreased. —Fabiano
Best bet: (Under 46.5) On top of the offensive injuries both teams are dealing with heading into this game, the two defenses featured in this matchup have been two of the best in the NFL lately. Since Week 11, the Ravens rank fourth in opponent EPA per play and first in opponent success rate. The Texans’ defense ranks fifth in opponent EPA per play and fourth in opponent success rate in that same time frame. I expect a low-scoring affair. —MacMillan
SI’s pick: As good as Houston’s defense is, this offense isn’t going to be able to score with Baltimore or fend off a Ravens defense that has turned in some really solid performances in recent weeks, especially a turnover-fueled win over the Steelers. The Texans are what they are: the best team in a bad division. If this was a 20-game season they’d be caught by the Colts. —Orr
SATURDAY
Denver Broncos (9–6) at Cincinnati Bengals (7–8)
When/TV: 8 p.m. ET, NFLN
Spread: Bengals -3.5 (over/under 50)
Matchup to watch: Broncos QB Bo Nix vs. Bengals’ secondary. Nix has hit a rookie wall the past three weeks, throwing a combined five interceptions against the Cleveland Browns and Indianapolis Colts before an uneven performance vs. the Los Angeles Chargers last week. Denver is going to need Nix to push the ball downfield without committing mistakes to keep pace with Joe Burrow & Co. It’s a daunting challenge for Nix, but the Bengals have been one of the worst pass defenses in the league. Cincinnati allows 231.6 passing yards per game, seventh worst in the NFL. —Manzano
Key stat: Burrow is having an MVP-worthy campaign this season, and as a result, the Bengals are leading the NFL in passing yards per game. However, the Broncos have been one of the toughest teams to throw against, ranking fourth by permitting only 6.7 yards per attempt. —Verderame
Start ’em/sit ’em: Nix bounced back last week, scoring 21 fantasy points against the Chargers. I like him to produce a top-10 performance this week, too, as the rookie faces a plus matchup against the Bengals. Their defense has allowed 24-plus points to three quarterbacks since Week 10, and the players who didn’t hit that mark in that time were backup signal-callers such as Cooper Rush, Mason Rudolph and Dorian Thompson-Robinson. —Fabiano
Best bet: (Under 50) The Bengals’ passing offense is arguably the best in the NFL, but they’re going to have one of their toughest tests of the season against the Broncos. Denver ranks first in opponent dropback EPA and third in opponent dropback success rate. They also allow the third-fewest yards per pass attempt at 6.1. I also have concerns for the Broncos’ offense. Their numbers fall off significantly when playing on the road this season. Their yards per play falls from 5.4 to 4.8, their points per game decreases from 27.7 to 21.1, and their red zone touchdown rate falls off a cliff from 70.8% at home to 52% on the road. —MacMillan
SI’s pick: Keeping alive the hope of a Bengals heater is the only thing keeping me going as a “fan” of the NFL right now. I have no stake in the game but after having most of the playoff teams settled for what seems like months now, I would love it if Burrow could somehow work his way into the postseason. —Orr
SUNDAY
Green Bay Packers (11–4) at Minnesota Vikings (13–2)
When/TV: 1 p.m. ET, Fox
Spread: Vikings -1 (over/under: 49)
Matchup to watch: Packers QB Jordan Love vs. Vikings’ pass rushers. The Packers have struggled against the best teams in the league, with their four losses coming against the Philadelphia Eagles, Vikings and Detroit Lions twice. They’re going to need a special performance from Love to avoid getting swept by Minnesota in the regular season. The Vikings, who have 44 total sacks this season, have the pass rushers to make life difficult for the second-year starting QB. Andrew Van Ginkel recorded two sacks in Minnesota’s win vs. the Seattle Seahawks last week. Love threw for 182 yards and one touchdown in Monday’s win vs. the New Orleans Saints. —Manzano
Key stat: Under DC Brian Flores, the Vikings are one of the most aggressive defenses in football. The defense leads the league in blitz rate (36.1%), is fifth in quarterback hits (99) and third in hurry percentage (9.3%). For the Packers to win, Love will need excellent protection. —Verderame
Start ’em/sit ’em: Aaron Jones has been up and down lately, but he continues to shoulder most of the backfield load for what is an explosive Vikings offense. He also has a revenge game this week, facing his former team. Back in Week 4, Jones beat Green Bay for 139 total yards and 17.9 fantasy points. He’ll be a solid RB2 in championship week. —Fabiano
Best bet: (Packers +102) Momentum is a real thing and the Packers seem to be playing their best football of the season. Teams getting better as the season goes on is a sign of a great coach, and that’s supported by Matt LaFleur’s 20–3 record as head coach of the Packers in December. After their recent surge of fantastic football, the Packers now rank second in the NFL in net yards per play. The Vikings, while continuing to win, have fallen to 11th in that stat and 21st over their past three games. The underlying numbers show that despite both teams continuing to stack up wins, it’s the Packers who have been playing better football of late. —MacMillan
SI’s pick: After clubbing the Saints, this Green Bay defense is ready to take it to Justin Jefferson and Sam Darnold. The Vikings are a legitimate Super Bowl contender but on a fast track indoors, the Packers are going to momentarily overwhelm with their sheer depth of skill-position talent. —Orr
Atlanta Falcons (8–7) at Washington Commanders (10–5)
When/TV: 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
Spread: Commanders -4 (over/under: 47.5)
Matchup to watch: Falcons RB Bijan Robinson vs. Commanders’ defensive front. Robinson’s presence made life easier for rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr. during his starting debut last week against the New York Giants. Robinson, who has 1,196 rushing yards and 10 rushing touchdowns this season, can do more of the same and not allow this game to turn into a shootout for Penix’s second career start. Last week, the Commanders had trouble defending Philadelphia Eagles star running back Saquon Barkley, who rushed for 150 yards and two touchdowns. —Manzano
Key stat: Can the Falcons get off the field on third down? Atlanta ranks tied for 28th at 44.4%. Meanwhile, Washington has been phenomenal offensively in that spot, sitting sixth at 45.5%. —Verderame
Start ’em/sit ’em: Terry McLaurin is low-hanging fruit as far as fantasy football goes, but the matchup against the Falcons makes him a potential top-five wideout this week. Atlanta’s pass defense has allowed eight touchdown catches, 14.5 yards per catch and the most fantasy points to opposing perimeter receivers over the past eight weeks. In what could be a shootout Sunday night, McLaurin should post huge totals. —Fabiano
Best bet: (Commanders -4) This is a nightmare matchup for the Falcons. They have historically struggled against quarterbacks who can scramble, and their defense, which hasn’t been able to consistently put pressure on opposing passers, is going to open them up for Jayden Daniels to attack them in several different ways Sunday night. Considering the Commanders have an elite offense, the Falcons aren’t going to be able to rely on their defense to win this game for them. Penix will have to step up, and I have concerns surrounding his ability to do so, especially with Drake London dealing with a banged-up hamstring. —MacMillan
SI’s pick: Can I pick a tie? I took the Falcons just out of curiosity about Penix after loving what I saw in his first start. I think if the Falcons can add some responsibility to his plate and diversify the offense they’ll be able to surprise a Commanders team that has a good record but is certainly not above getting clipped by the Falcons. —Orr
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as NFL Week 17: Best Games, Key Matchups, Fantasy Tips, Best Bets and Predictions.
