There are only two weeks left in the 2023 regular season, which means time is running out for some teams to make a playoff push. Though there are a bunch of teams that have already been eliminated from contention, several Week 17 matchups carry major postseason implications.
The week kicks off with Jets-Browns on Thursday night and because the College Football Playoff games will take place on Monday, Week 17 wraps up on Sunday night with Packers-Vikings. There is a special Saturday edition of Monday Night Football this weekend, though, with the Cowboys hosting the Lions.
As the playoffs approach, here is our penultimate edition of best bets this season.
All odds are courtesy of BetMGM.
Lions at Cowboys: Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Lions: Jared Goff UNDER 253.5 passing yards (-115)
Goff averages over 265 passing yards per game, and he’s topped the 253.5-yard mark in the last two games. However, the Cowboys’ defense dictates a different type of game script for the Lions. Dallas is vulnerable to the run, something Detroit’s offense does very well. The Cowboys have allowed more than the 253.5 passing yards mark just three times all year, and one of those was Washington throwing for almost 100 yards in the fourth quarter of a blowout loss. It’s hard to see the Lions and Goff airing it out in what should be a close game, especially with left tackle Taylor Decker not close to 100 percent health. – Jeff Risdon, Lions Wire
Cowboys: Tony Pollard first Cowboys TD scorer (+450)
The Cowboys started off their game in Miami in beautiful fashion. They won the toss and took possession because they know there’s a stark difference in their game plan when leading and when trailing. It worked, too, all the way up until Tony Pollard inexplicably couldn’t cross the goal line and then on the subsequent snap, UDFA rookie fullback Hunter Luepke failed to secure the handoff, turning the ball over. Pollard accepted responsibility this week for not making things happen, and Mike McCarthy and the offense will give him a shot at redemption on Saturday night against the Lions. – K.D. Drummond, Cowboys Wire
Patriots at Bills: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Patriots: Bailey Zappe UNDER 0.5 passing touchdowns (+185)
The Bailey Zappe high is about to come crashing to a serious halt at Orchard Park against a Bills team seething from the upset loss they suffered earlier in the season to the Mac Jones-led Patriots. Buffalo has been a different animal at home with the defense only allowing an average of 13.9 points per game at Highmark Stadium. This matchup reeks of a disaster game for Zappe and the Patriots with the Bills being amongst the hottest teams in football. – Jordy McElroy, Patriots Wire
Bills: Josh Allen OVER 238.5 passing yards (-115)
The Bills have been riding their rushing attack in recent weeks during this winning streak. But let’s bring the focus back over to Josh Allen. The Bills will be facing a Patriots defense that has allowed only 59 yards per game on the ground since Week 12. That’s the best in the NFL. While Buffalo still might find some success on the ground, this is a perfect time to jump on an over/under total for Allen that’s frankly pretty slow. Only 238.5? At home? Against an AFC East opponent? That’s tempting – and it just feels like Allen’s due for a big game. – Nick Wojton, Bills Wire
Falcons at Bears: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Falcons: Falcons +3 (-110)
In Week 16, the Falcons secured a 19-point win over the Colts in what was easily their most dominant performance of the season. Blowout wins have been rare under head coach Arthur Smith, but the team is almost always competitive. Even though the Chicago Bears have been hot over the last month, I don’t see them winning by more than three points in Week 17. Expect Sunday’s game to be a close, low-scoring matchup at Soldier Field. – Matt Urben, Falcons Wire
Bears: DJ Moore OVER 64.5 receiving yards (-120)
Moore is likely going to be the only reliable weapon at Justin Fields’ disposal in the passing game as tight end Cole Kmet (knee) and wide receiver Darnell Mooney (concussion) are trending toward not playing Sunday. While Chicago’s game plan should call for a heavy dose of running the ball – the offense’s strength – Moore will be the focal point in the passing game for Fields. – Alyssa Barbieri, Bears Wire
Raiders at Colts: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Raiders: Raiders +3.5 (-110)
The Raiders just earned two impressive wins over the last two weeks, including a road win against the Chiefs in Kansas City. The defense is playing the best they have all season and now they will be taking on Gardner Minshew and the Colts. The fact that the Raiders are 3.5-point favorites is a bit disrespectful considering how hard they’ve played for Antonio Pierce. Don’t be shocked if the Raiders win this game outright. But you can take it to the bank that they will cover the 3.5-point spread. This is a coin-flip game and getting the extra half-point is easy money. – Marcus Mosher, Raiders Wire
Colts: Total OVER 43.5 points (-110)
There have been a lot of points scored at Lucas Oil Stadium this season. In seven home games, the average total comes out to 53.6 points. The Colts have gone over their total in 10 of 15 games this season while the Raiders have scored a combined 83 points over their last two games. It seems as though the Colts will be near full power on offense and even though the Raiders defense has played well over the last month, this game could easily turn into a shootout. – Kevin Hickey, Colts Wire
Rams at Giants: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Rams: Kyren Williams OVER 94.5 yards rushing (-115)
Rams-Giants features a matchup between the league’s leader in rushing yards per game (96.1) and a defense that’s allowing the fourth-most rushing yards per game (134.2). Advantage: Williams and the Rams. The Giants are giving up 4.7 yards per carry and given Williams’ average of 5.1 yards per attempt, he could go his yardage prop in fewer than 20 carries. I was torn between picking him to go over 94.5 yards and 19.5 rushing attempts but if this game gets lopsided, the Rams might limit his carries. That being said, he’s gone over 100 yards in three consecutive games and has had at least 20 carries in four straight. You can’t go wrong either way. – Cameron DaSilva, Rams Wire
Giants: Darius Slayton OVER 33.5 receiving yards (-115)
The Giants will struggle to contain Los Angeles’ high-powered offense and will be forced to play from behind, which means a more aggressive passing offense. With an emphasis on pushing the ball down the field already in place, you can expect QB Tyrod Taylor to take several deep shots throughout the game. Given that he has a better rapport with WR Darius Slayton, as we saw in Week 16, expect Slayton to benefit. Jalin Hyatt and Wan’Dale Robinson will see a good number of passes as well, but Slayton will be the more consistent target. And with an over/under set at 33.5 yards, he really only needs to haul in one of those deep passes to cash in here. – Dan Benton, Giants Wire
Cardinals at Eagles: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Cardinals: Alternate total OVER 50 (+110)
The Cardinals allowed 45 points to the 49ers, 37 to the Rams and 31 to the Ravens. After allowing 250 rushing yards to the Bears, the rushing attack of the Eagles should move the ball with ease. But the Eagles’ defense has struggled, allowing 30.8 points per game over their last five. This has all the makings of another game like the Cardinals had against the 49ers — 45-29. A 37-24 Philly win is completely reasonable. The Eagles should hit the 30-point mark easily against the Cardinals and the Cardinals should score at least 20. If you are feeling a little spicy, taking the alternate total as high as 52.5 and going with the Over at +150 odds is probably achievable. But a safe bet with plus odds is betting Over 50. – Jess Root, Cards Wire
Eagles: Eagles -10.5 (-110)
Arizona is entering the contest on a two-game losing streak, and they’ll face a Philadelphia defense still angry about Jonathan Gannon’s Super Bowl performance and eventual exit to the Cardinals. Sunday’s matchup will be the 9th between the teams in the last 13 seasons, with Arizona holding a 5-3 advantage during that span—two of those five wins came at Philadelphia. Still, the 2023 matchup will look different. Arizona is giving up 26.9 points per game, while also allowing 147 yards per game on the ground (32nd) and 363.0 total yards allowed per game (27th). Jalen Hurts and the Eagles offense can use a breakout performance, and Sunday is the perfect time for an offensive explosion ahead of the New Year. – Glenn Erby, Eagles Wire
Saints at Buccaneers: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Saints: Taysom Hill UNDER 14.5 rushing yards (-115)
Hill has been a non-factor on the ground in recent weeks after injuring his foot, which caused him to miss some time before his return. And he didn’t make much headway against this same Buccaneers team with just 10 rushing yards in their meeting earlier this year. He typically doesn’t get many carries when the Saints aren’t already out in front, so this looks like a good bet between his health and the likelihood of the Bucs offense jumping out ahead early. – John Sigler, Saints Wire
Buccaneers: Chris Godwin OVER 55.5 receiving yards (-115)
Godwin has been on fire the past two games (arguably the past three, but he didn’t hit the over here against the Falcons). He’s become a major part of the passing game as of recent and I would expect that to continue with how good it has looked against the Jaguars and the Packers, eclipsing 30 points each time. Mike Evans will eat without Marshon Lattimore, sure, but look for Godwin to have a big day. – River Wells, Bucs Wire
49ers at Commanders: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
49ers: 49ers by 1-13 (+125)
Lets punt that -13 to the moon because the 49ers are too banged up to lay 13 points with. Instead, we’ll lean on that margin of victory of 1-13 where you’re effectively taking the 49ers to win, but the Commanders to cover. Washington has a new (better) starting QB and the 49ers are across the country for an early start on a short week. San Francisco is good enough to win despite that adversity, but it’s a good bet that they won’t win by two touchdowns. – Kyle Madson, Niners Wire
Commanders: Terry McLaurin OVER 52.5 receiving yards (-115)
The change at quarterback could be good for McLaurin’s numbers. Sam Howell struggled recently, but as soon as Jacoby Brissett entered the last two games, he immediately targeted McLaurin. McLaurin’s 141 receiving yards against the Rams two weeks ago proves he’s still a top-flight receiver. The Commanders will be behind double digits early, meaning offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy is going to throw the ball — a lot. McLaurin, Jahan Dotson and Curtis Samuel could all hit the over this week. – Bryan Manning, Commanders Wire
Panthers at Jaguars: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Panthers: Panthers +6.5 (-110)
Carolina’s offense finally clicked under rookie quarterback Bryce Young in Week 16. The unit recorded season-highs in total yards (394) and points (30) while Young, for the first time in his NFL career, broke the 300-yard passing mark. With the Panthers getting closer to playing complementary football and the Jaguars limping in, this may very well end up being a one-possession game. – Anthony Rizzuti, Panthers Wire
Jaguars: Travis Etienne Jr. longest rush OVER 14.5 yards (-110)
Etienne has been a non-factor in the last few weeks, but there’s a good chance that changes Sunday against the Panthers. Only two teams have allowed more rushes to pick up at least 10 yards than Carolina. Jacksonville could take advantage of that with Cam Robinson set to make his return to the lineup. In seven games with the left tackle in the game, Etienne has averaged 97.4 yards from scrimmage. In the last four games without him, Etienne averaged just 60.3 yards. The Jaguars desperately need to get their run game going and Etienne will get plenty of chances to finally break free for a big gain. – Adam Stites, Jaguars Wire
Dolphins at Ravens: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Dolphins: Tyreek Hill anytime TD (+105)
Hill scored 12 touchdowns in the team’s first 12 games of the season, as he looked like he had a shot to break Mark Clayton’s single-season record of 18 set back in 1984. However, an injury has slowed down his pace, and he’s been held scoreless in his last two appearances, the first time he hasn’t found the end zone in back-to-back games this season. As he gets healthier and Miami relies on him with Jaylen Waddle dealing with a high-ankle sprain, Hill should see an uptick in usage, especially on scoring plays. We have to take him at the plus money when we have the opportunity. – Mike Masala, Dolphins Wire
Ravens: Justice Hill OVER 29.5 rushing yards (-120)
The Dolphins are fourth in the NFL in total defense, and the Ravens are looking to avoid a shootout on offense. Baltimore has a stout defense, and OC Todd Monken will lean on his running game, splitting explosive carries between Gus Edwards and Justice Hill. Look for the Ravens to hammer Miami with the rushing attack, unleashing Hill on the edge, while dominating the time of possession. – Glenn Erby, Ravens Wire
Titans at Texans: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Titans: Titans UNDER 19.5 total points (-115)
The Titans have been awful on the road this season, as evidenced by their 1-6 record. In those seven games, the Titans have not surpassed 16 points in six of them, with the lone exception coming in their miracle victory over the Dolphins in Week 14. – Mike Moraitis, Titans Wire
Texans: Texans UNDER 12.5 first-half points (-120)
The Texans’ first-half offense has been awful in recent weeks. In their last three games, they’ve averaged just 3.3 points per game in the first half. Granted, two of those games were with Case Keenum under center, but even throughout the season, the Texans rank 17th with an average of 10.2 first-half points per game. Bet the under in this spot. – Cameron DaSilva, NFL Wires
Steelers at Seahawks: Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET
Steelers: Jaylen Warren OVER 36.5 rushing yards -115
With Najee Harris dealing with a knee injury, Jaylen Warren could see an expanded role as a rusher. Splitting reps with Harris, Warren is averaging 45.1 yards per game so If Harris is limited, Warren could have a huge performance. Harris has topped 36.5 yards rushing in six of his last eight games. – Curt Popejoy, Steelers Wire
Seahawks: Steelers +3.5 (-115)
Truth be told, the Seahawks have been very lucky to win the last two games the way that they have. This team remains the most-undisciplined in the league when it comes to penalty yardage and they’ve been atrocious at tackling since mid-season. They could pull off another thrilling game-winning drive, but winning by anything more than a field goal seems like a tall order right now – especially since they have struggled against good pass-rushing teams like Pittsburgh. – Tim Weaver, Seahawks Wire
Chargers at Broncos: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Chargers: Chargers +3.5 (-110)
The Chargers looked like a completely different team in their matchup against the Bills last weekend, almost pulling off the upset victory. Meanwhile, the Broncos have gotten embarrassed the past two weeks. Now, they go into this game with Jarrett Stidham as their starter after benching Russell Wilson. While Los Angeles has lost their last four games at Mile High, in the battle of the backups, expect a neck-and-neck game, and don’t be surprised if the Bolts come away victorious. – Gavino Borquez, Chargers Wire
Broncos: Broncos -3.5 (-110)
It’s an extreme longshot, but the Broncos technically still have a chance to make the NFL playoffs if they win out. The Chargers, meanwhile, have already been eliminated from postseason contention. Both teams will be starting backup quarterbacks – Jarrett Stidham for Denver and Easton Stick for L.A. – and the Broncos’ defense should give them an advantage, especially at home. – Jon Heath, Broncos Wire
Bengals at Chiefs: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Bengals: Jake Browning OVER 234.5 passing yards (-120)
This was a similar line a week ago and despite throwing three interceptions in a blowout loss, Browning threw for 335 yards – without Ja’Marr Chase on the field. Browning has blown past this number four games in a row with a minimum of 275 in each and it would have been five in a row if his debut as a starter wasn’t while running Joe Burrow’s playbook (which produced 227). The Chiefs have a fantastic defense, but Browning has produced in this new offense against similar, such as Minnesota, and Kansas City has multiple cornerbacks on the injury report. – Chris Roling, Bengals Wire
Chiefs: Rashee Rice longest reception UNDER 22.5 Yards (-125)
At this point, the Kansas City Chiefs’ offense is wholly inept. Patrick Mahomes looks like a shell of his former self, and the product he is able to produce on the field is a far cry from what fans grew accustomed to seeing in recent years. Andy Reid can be expected to lean on the short and intermediate passing game to get the reigning MVP in rhythm before Kansas City’s final regular season game. Thus, the choice to bet on Rice to gain less than 23 yards on his longest reception is less a function of the promising rookie’s ability, and more a gamble on Reid’s decision to play conservative against an opponent that is without its starting quarterback. – John Dillon, Chiefs Wire
Packers at Vikings: Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET
Packers: Jordan Love longest passing completion OVER 36.5 yards (-110)
Love has a completion of at least 30 yards in 14 of 15 games this season and a completion of 40 or more in six. The guess here is that he makes it 15 of 16 with a 30-yarder and seven with a 40-yarder on Sunday night. In a potential shootout, the Packers will need big plays. Love has been much better against the blitz over the last two months, and the Vikings defense has injuries at cornerback and is giving up more explosive plays recently. – Zach Kruse, Packers Wire
Vikings: Justin Jefferson OVER 79.5 receiving yards (-115)
Justin Jefferson proved once again that he was the best wide receiver in the National Football League on Sunday afternoon. Not only did he catch six passes for 141 yards and a touchdown, he repeated his incredible catch against the Buffalo Bills from last season. With no T.J. Hockenson and Jaire Alexander suspended for the game, watch for Jefferson to be absolutely fed targets from new starting quarterback Jaren Hall. – Tyler Forness, Vikings Wire
