If you’re coming here looking for picks, that’s not what this is. We’ll get to those later in the week.
This right here is an early betting preview of the upcoming action in the NFL, with a first impression of each game and betting line, with a few trends and hints sprinkled in. Sometimes, bettors can overthink things and talk themselves out of making the right pick. So these are just baseline thoughts before we take a deeper dive into the numbers later in the week.
Spreads and over/under numbers are from BetMGM and likely to change after this is published.
1
Jaguars at Jets (-1) (O/U: 38.5)
Jaguars: 6-8 (6-8 ATS)
Jets: 7-7 (8-6 ATS)
This game feels similar to last week’s for the Jets, where they were slight favorites over the surging Lions. They couldn’t cool off Detroit, and they’ll have their hands full trying to do the same against the Jags who are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six.
2
Bills at Bears (+8.5) (O/U: 41.5)
Bills: 11-3 (6-8 ATS)
Bears: 3-11 (5-8-1 ATS)
The Bears just snapped a four-game streak of losses ATS on Sunday and they have a good opportunity to cover again with a spread this large. Buffalo is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight games.
3
Lions at Panthers (+2.5) (O/U: 44.5)
Lions: 7-7 (10-3-1 ATS)
Panthers: 5-9 (7-7 ATS)
Underdog, favorite, it doesn’t matter at this point. The Lions have covered in seven straight games but they can’t let their guards down against the Panthers. Carolina covered the spread in four straight games before Sunday’s dud.
4
Saints at Browns (-3) (O/U: 32.5)
Saints: 5-9 (5-7-2 ATS)
Browns: 6-8 (7-7 ATS)
This total is so low, it’s stunning. But it is for good reason. The Saints are 3-0 to the under in their last three games and 6-1 in their last seven. Browns games have fallen under in four straight.
5
Texans at Titans (-7) (O/U: 38.5)
Texans: 1-12-1 (6-7-1 ATS)
Titans: 7-7 (7-6-1 ATS)
The Texans have covered as massive underdogs the past two weeks, but their deficits in those games would have covered this smaller spread too. Not to mention the Titans are slumping — four straight losses — and no where on the level of those opponents, the Chiefs and Cowboys.
6
Seahawks at Chiefs (-9.5) (O/U: 48.5)
Seahawks: 7-7 (6-8 ATS)
Chiefs: 11-3 (5-8-1 ATS)
Things were going so well for Seattle, and now the team finds itself in the midst of a 1-5 stretch where it’s also 0-5 ATS. But the Chiefs haven’t covered in their last five either, so they may let the Seahawks hang around here. The one thing going for KC is the team is finally returning home after three games on the road.
7
Giants at Vikings (-3.5) (O/U: 47.5)
Giants: 8-5-1 (10-4 ATS)
Vikings: 11-3 (6-7-1 ATS)
If the Giants can’t find a way to crack 25 points in this one, I’m not sure they will again this season. Vikings games have hit the over in four straight, and despite a miraculous comeback in Week 15, they somehow allowed the Colts to build a 33-0 lead on them.
8
Bengals at Patriots (+3.5) (O/U: 39.5)
Bengals: 10-4 (11-3 ATS)
Patriots: 7-7 (7-6-1 ATS)
Despite how well they’ve played during an 8-1 stretch, the Bengals keep getting these small spreads. It’s allowed them to cover in six straight games and lose just three ATS all season.
9
Falcons at Ravens (-7) (O/U: 37.5)
Falcons: 5-9 (7-5-2 ATS)
Ravens: 9-5 (5-8-1 ATS)
Now, this is a game I’m surprised the total isn’t lower. Both Atlanta and Baltimore have played in three straight games that hit the under and five of six. And while Baltimore could be getting Lamar Jackson back, its offense wasn’t great even before he was injured.
10
Commanders at 49ers (-7.5) (O/U: 39.5)
Commanders: 7-6-1 (7-6-1 ATS)
49ers: 10-4 (8-5-1 ATS)
A set of games against the Giants in their last two and not a single cover doesn’t bode well for Washington in this one. The Niners are smoking teams lately, going 5-0 ATS in their last five with four wins by double digits.
11
Eagles at Cowboys (-6) (O/U: 46.5)
Eagles: 13-1 (8-6 ATS)
Cowboys: 10-4 (8-6 ATS)
This spread started a lot smaller, but it’s moved sharply in the direction of Dallas since the news of Jalen Hurts’ injury. Maybe too much? The Cowboys defense has struggled lately, and they’re 1-3 ATS in their last four.
12
Raiders at Steelers (-3) (O/U: 39.5)
Raiders: 6-8 (7-7 ATS)
Steelers: 6-8 (7-6-1 ATS)
There’s not a more unpredictable team in the NFL than the Raiders, but I do find myself surprised that they’re underdogs to Pittsburgh. That said, Vegas is 3-1 ATS as an underdog this season with two wins outright.
13
Packers at Dolphins (-5.5) (O/U: 46.5)
Packers: 6-8 (6-8 ATS)
Dolphins: 8-6 (6-6-2 ATS, 8-5 O/U)
The shocking part about the Dolphins’ three-game skid is how much their offense had fallen off. But even still, they were 2-1 to the over in that span. And now that the offense showed signs of life in Week 15, the over feels like a good play against a Packers team 4-1 to the over in their last five.
14
Broncos at Rams (+1) (O/U: 35.5)
Broncos: 4-10 (6-8 ATS)
Rams: 4-10 (4-9-1 ATS)
The two lowest scoring teams in the NFL, I’m stunned this game doesn’t have the lowest point total of the week. My best guess about why is because the Broncos have cracked 20 points in consecutive weeks for the first time all season, hitting the over in both games. I wouldn’t bet on that continuing.
15
Buccaneers at Cardinals (+6) (O/U: 41.5)
Buccaneers: 6-8 (3-10-1 ATS)
Cardinals: 4-10 (6-8 ATS)
This game would mean a lot more to the Bucs if the other teams in their division could actually put some pressure on them. Regardless, they need a win after dropping four straight ATS and the beat-up Cardinals are the perfect opponent to get it against.
16
Chargers at Colts (+4) (O/U: 47)
Chargers: 8-6 (8-5-1 ATS)
Colts: 4-9-1 (6-8 ATS)
If the Colts aren’t completely demoralized after Saturday’s loss, that will be the one rare bright side of Jeff Saturday’s coaching. So in a game between a Colts team that has hit the over in three straight and the Chargers, who have hit the under three straight, I’d side with the team that isn’t still picking its face up off the ground.
