If you’re coming here looking for picks, that’s not what this is. We’ll get to those later in the week.
This right here is an early betting preview of the upcoming action in the NFL, with a first impression of each game and betting line, with a few trends and hints sprinkled in. Sometimes, bettors can overthink things and talk themselves out of making the right pick. So these are just baseline thoughts before we take a deeper dive into the numbers later in the week.
Spreads and over/under numbers are from BetMGM and likely to change after this is published.
1
49ers at Seahawks (+3.5) (O/U: 43.5)
49ers: 9-4 (7-5-1 ATS, 6-7 O/U)
Seahawks: 7-6 (6-7 ATS, 8-5 O/U)
Seattle is beginning to slump down the stretch, losing three of its last four games. Not where you want to be going into a tough division game against the surging Niners.
2
Colts at Vikings (-4) (O/U: 47.5)
Colts: 4-8-1 (5-8 ATS, 4-9 O/U)
Vikings: 10-3 (6-6-1 ATS, 7-6 O/U)
The Colts don’t score much, but the Vikings don’t stop anybody. Something has to give but the Vikings will certainly be playing for more.
3
Ravens at Browns (-2.5) (O/U: 37.5)
Ravens: 9-4 (5-7-1 ATS, 4-9 O/U)
Browns: 5-8 (6-7 ATS, 7-6 O/U)
Nobody should be expecting Tyler Huntley to light up the scoreboard, but this total is incredibly low. Especially with J.K. Dobbins back and running hard, and the Browns defense being what it is.
4
Dolphins at Bills (-7.5) (O/U: 42)
Dolphins: 8-5 (5-6-2 ATS, 6-7 O/U)
Bills: 10-3 (6-7 ATS, 3-10 O/U)
The spread here feels big for a total so low. If Buffalo is going to win by at least two scores, I’d expect a much higher total. These teams’ first meeting, which Miami won by just two points, ended with a total of 40.
5
Chiefs at Texans (+14) (O/U: 48.5)
Chiefs: 10-3 (5-7-1 ATS, 6-7 O/U)
Texans: 1-11-1 (5-7-1 ATS, 5-8 O/U)
Houston nearly pulled off the upset against Dallas on Sunday, so it’d be foolish to say they can’t cover this spread. But it’d also be foolish to bet on it.
6
Lions at Jets (-1) (O/U: 44.5)
Lions: 6-7 (9-3-1 ATS, 8-5 O/U)
Jets: 7-6 (8-5 ATS, 5-8 O/U)
The Lions are in a weird place where they’re favored over teams you don’t expect and underdogs to others you don’t expect. Either way, they cover a lot and a win is not out the question in this one. I’m looking at the under really hard.
7
Cowboys at Jaguars (+5.5) (O/U: 48)
Cowboys: 10-3 (8-5 ATS, 6-7 O/U)
Jaguars: 5-8 (5-8 ATS, 7-6 O/U)
There’s a temptation here to assume Dallas will cover because of these teams’ respective records ATS. However, Dallas is just 2-3 ATS in its last five games and Jacksonville is 3-1-1.
8
Falcons at Saints (-3.5) (O/U: 43.5)
Falcons: 5-8 (7-5-1 ATS, 6-7 O/U)
Saints: 4-9 (5-7-1 ATS, 6-7 O/U)
Somehow, these teams both still have a shot at winning the NFC South after losing four of their last five games each. I’m eyeing the point total and looking for the under here as these teams are 8-2 to the under in those 10 combined games.
9
Steelers at Panthers (-2) (O/U: 38.5)
Steelers: 5-8 (6-6-1 ATS, 5-8 O/U)
Panthers: 5-8 (7-6 ATS, 5-8 O/U)
The Panthers have played themselves back into contention in the NFC South and this actually feels like another game they can win, especially if Kenny Pickett remains sidelined.
10
Eagles at Bears (+9) (O/U: 48.5)
Eagles: 12-1 (8-5 ATS, 9-4 O/U)
Bears: 3-10 (4-8-1 ATS, 9-4 O/U)
Jalen Hurts against Justin Fields is must-see TV, that is until this game gets out of hand, which I fully expect it to. The Eagles are back to steamrolling teams and Chicago won’t likely be able to answer.
11
Patriots at Raiders (+1) (O/U: 44.5)
Patriots: 7-6 (7-5-1 ATS, 5-8 O/U)
Raiders: 5-8 (6-7 ATS, 7-6 O/U)
The Raiders should probably be a bigger underdog here because I’m not sure Derek Carr is going to have an easy time against this Pats defense. And their own defense just continues to have letdowns.
12
Cardinals at Broncos (+2.5) (O/U: 38.5)
Cardinals: 4-9 (6-7 ATS, 8-5 O/U)
Broncos: 3-10 (5-8 ATS, 2-11 O/U)
The Cardinals with a backup QB against this Broncos defense? And the Broncos potentially with a backup in this offense? I can’t hammer the under fast enough.
13
Titans at Chargers (-3) (O/U: 46)
Titans: 7-6 (7-5-1 ATS, 5-8 O/U)
Chargers: 7-6 (7-5-1 ATS, 6-7 O/U)
These teams have taken different paths to astonishingly similar records across the betting spectrum. But the Chargers are trending up, while the Titans are trending down.
14
Bengals at Buccaneers (+3.5) (O/U: 44)
Bengals: 9-4 (10-3 ATS, 4-9 O/U)
Buccaneers: 6-7 (3-9-1 ATS, 3-10 O/U)
Tampa simply can’t score right now, and Tom Brady looked as bad as we’ve seen him look in their last game. Even with a good defense at home, I don’t think this spread is big enough.
15
Giants at Commanders (-4.5) (O/U: 40.5)
Giants: 7-5-1 (9-4 ATS, 4-9 O/U)
Commanders: 7-5-1 (7-5-1 ATS, 4-9 O/U)
After tying in their first meeting just a couple weeks ago, Washington is laying 4.5 points here and that’s probably too much. I don’t think either team wins this one by more than a field goal.
16
Rams at Packers (-8) (O/U: 39.5)
Rams: 4-9 (4-8-1 ATS, 5-8 O/U)
Packers: 5-8 (5-8 ATS, 7-6 O/U)
This was supposed to be a huge late-season prime-time matchup going into the year. Now, it’s a game I don’t think anyone has a reason to watch. I’m also not sure Green Bay should be favored by eight over anybody.
