This could be a week to remember if the handful of intriguing games in Week 15 deliver.
But no game will be bigger than the potential Super Bowl preview between the Detroit Lions and Buffalo Bills. Both teams need this game to secure the top seed in their respective conferences. The Lions are only one game ahead of the Minnesota Vikings and Philadelphia Eagles. The Bills are two games behind the Kansas City Chiefs, but they control the head-to-head tiebreaker.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are also in the mix for the AFC’s No. 1 seed, but they’re going to need an upset in Philadelphia to stay within striking distance of the Chiefs. The Steelers could be without dynamic wide receiver George Pickens because of a lingering hamstring injury. But the Eagles have their own issues, with the highly publicized rift between Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown.
The Sunday Night Football matchup between the Green Bay Packers and Seattle Seahawks could provide us with an early postseason preview. The Seahawks, the leaders in the NFC West, and Packers, the NFC’s sixth seed, are currently slated to face each other in a wild-card matchup with four games left in the regular season.
We’ll also keep a close eye on the matchups between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Los Angeles Chargers, and the Miami Dolphins and Houston Texans. Here’s everything you need to know about the five best games of the week, including Gilberto Manzano’s key matchups, Matt Verderame’s key stats, Michael Fabiano’s fantasy football advice, Iain MacMillan’s best bets and Conor Orr’s prediction for each game.
Start ’em/Sit ’em | NFL Betting Picks | Staff Picks
SUNDAY
Miami Dolphins (6–7) at Houston Texans (8–5)
When/TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Spread: Texans -2.5 (over/under: 46.5)
Matchup to watch: Dolphins TE Jonnu Smith vs. Texans’ LBs. Miami has added versatility to its offense with the emergence of Smith, who recorded the game-winning touchdown in overtime against the New York Jets last week. Smith could have another prolific performance Sunday against a thin group of linebackers without the suspended Azeez Al-Shaair. Linebacker Devin White, the former standout of the Buccaneers, could be asked to play more snaps this week. Smith has 61 catches for 692 yards and five touchdowns this season. —Manzano
Key stat: The Texans have allowed 42 sacks this season, sixth-most in the NFL. However, only the Atlanta Falcons have fewer sacks than the Dolphins’ 24. Whoever wins this battle will likely win the game. —Verderame
Start ’em/sit ’em: C.J. Stroud has been one of the biggest fantasy duds of the season, failing to score more than 16 points in seven consecutive games. Heck, he had just 14.4 points against a bad Jacksonville Jaguars defense before the bye. Next up is a bad matchup on paper against the Dolphins, whose defense has surrendered the third-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. —Fabiano
Best bet: Dolphins +130. There are a lot of red flags surrounding the Texans heading into Week 15. Their offense has been downright bad this season, ranking 22nd in EPA per play and 30th in success rate. Now, they host a Dolphins offense that is far superior and will be making one final push toward a potential postseason berth. This game isn’t outdoors in a cold climate, so we can feel comfortable taking a shot on the Dolphins to pull the upset. —MacMillan
SI’s pick: I like the Dolphins. I suppose the Texans could have fixed what ails them during the bye but Miami is a classic end-of-season powder keg playing the best football I’ve seen them exhibit all year. The momentum of this team in overtime against the Jets last week was contagious. —Orr
Buffalo Bills (10–3) at Detroit Lions (11–2)
When/TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
Spread: Lions -1.5 (over/under: 54.5)
Matchup to watch: Bills QB Josh Allen vs. Lions DE Za’Darius Smith. This might be the week the Lions’ defensive injuries finally catch up to them. It’s going to take a group effort to contain Allen, who’s coming off a six-touchdown performance against the Rams. Detroit could use a vintage performance from Smith, who’s had three sacks in the four games since being traded by the Cleveland Browns. The Lions have 12 defensive players on injured reserve and that doesn’t even include Alim McNeill, who’s in the concussion protocol. —Manzano
Key stat: The Lions are an offensive team, but their third-down defense is great. Detroit permits only 31.3% of third downs to be converted, a league-best mark. However, the unit will be challenged by the Bills, who rank eighth offensively on third down, converting at 43.4%. —Verderame
Start ’em/sit ’em: David Montgomery has been the epitome of consistent fantasy production, scoring 15-plus points in four consecutive games. I like him to make it five straight against the Bills, who have struggled against running backs. In fact, their defense has allowed 19-plus points to running backs seven times, including Kyren Williams’ 23.7 points last week. Look for both Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs to roar this weekend. —Fabiano
Best bet: Lions -1.5. The Bills have been significantly worse on the road this season compared to at home. Their net yards per play metric falls from +1.4 at home to -0.2 on the road. That’s going to play heavily in the Lions’ favor. It also bodes well for Detroit that despite its injuries, its defense has been one of the best in the NFL, ranking second in opponent EPA per play while the Bills rank 10th. Finally, look for the Lions to have success on third down. They rank fourth in third down conversion rate and face a Bills defense ranked 25th in third down defense. —MacMillan
SI’s pick: Detroit feels like the pick after the Bills were absolutely exhausted by a cross-country flight and a shootout with the Los Angeles Rams last week. Not a knock against either team, just a recognition that Detroit has a little bit more rest coming into this one. —Orr
Pittsburgh Steelers (10–3) at Philadelphia Eagles (11–2)
When/TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox
Spread: Eagles -5.5 (over/under: 42.5)
Matchup to watch: Steelers OLB T.J. Watt vs. Eagles LT Jordan Mailata. Watt will need to wreck the Eagles’ offensive plans to give the short-handed Steelers a chance to pull the upset in Philadelphia. The Eagles probably won’t have to deal with Pickens, who’s dealing with a hamstring injury, but they’re going to have their hands full with Watt, a six-time Pro Bowler. Pittsburgh has 32 total sacks this season, including 9.5 from Watt. Philadelphia has allowed 36 sacks this season. —Manzano
Key stat: Pittsburgh needs to make it count when in the Philadelphia red zone. The Steelers have struggled inside the 20-yard line this year, ranking 28th at 45.7% while the Eagles have been excellent defensively, allowing touchdowns on 48.7%, tied for sixth-best. —Verderame
Start ’em/sit ’em: Russell Wilson has posted mostly mediocre totals in the past month, scoring fewer than 16.1 fantasy points in three of his past four games. I don’t see him getting better this week. Over the past eight weeks, the Eagles have allowed the fourth-fewest points per game to opposing quarterbacks, and Wilson might not have Pickens again. —Fabiano
Best bet: Steelers +5.5. Call it Mike Tomlin voodoo, or maybe the Steelers are just underrated, but I feel much more comfortable taking 5.5 points with Pittsburgh as opposed to laying the number on the other side. The Steelers enter this game ranked ninth in the league in net yards per play (+0.5) over their past three games and they have the rare ability to slow down the run, which is the key to hanging with the Eagles. Philadelphia may win, but the Steelers are in a great spot to cover this spread. —MacMillan
SI’s pick: I like Pittsburgh. I feel like the Steelers are going to give Jalen Hurts fits in the backfield as he tries to develop Philadelphia’s passing game into something that doesn’t spark palace intrigue from the outside world watching A.J. Brown, Hurts and Brandon Graham sort out their personal issues. —Orr
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7–6) at Los Angeles Chargers (8–5)
When/TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox
Spread: Chargers -3 (over/under: 45.5)
Matchup to watch: Buccaneers TE Cade Otton vs. Chargers S Derwin James. It took a few years, but the Chargers finally provided help for James, the versatile playmaker capable of shutting down opposing tight ends on a weekly basis. Otton played a big role in why the Buccaneers kept their season afloat during a wave of injuries earlier this season. Otton has 57 catches for 576 yards and four touchdowns this season. James, who has 3.5 sacks and one interception, has been a catalyst for the league’s best scoring defense, which allows only 15.9 points per game. —Manzano
Key stat: Of quarterbacks who have started at least 10 games, only Patrick Mahomes has fewer air yards completed per pass than Baker Mayfield. Meanwhile, Los Angeles is fifth-best in limiting yards after the catch throughout the year. —Verderame
Start ’em/sit ’em: Baker Mayfield is coming off a disappointing game against the Raiders, and this week’s matchup in Los Angeles makes him a fade for me. The Chargers’ defense has allowed an average of fewer than 15 fantasy points per game to enemy quarterbacks, including holding Patrick Mahomes to 27.1 combined points in two matchups this season. So, unless you’re in a league that allows managers to start two quarterbacks, I’d sit Mayfield. —Fabiano
Best bet: Buccaneers +3. People likely know the Buccaneers’ offense is good, but I’m not sure they realize how good. They’re now fifth in the league in EPA behind only the Bills, Baltimore Ravens, Washington Commanders and Lions. They’re also fourth in success rate and fifth in yards per play (6.0). Meanwhile, the lack of top-end skill-position talent has hurt the Chargers’ offense, and now that J.K. Dobbins is hurt, they’ve lost the tool of an effective run game. I’ll take the field goal worth of points with Tampa Bay. —MacMillan
SI’s pick: I like Tampa Bay, if only so the Buccaneers help my prophecy come to life from the middle of the season. Back when it looked like the Falcons were running away with the division, I said to just wait and see how the Buccaneers handle the back end of this schedule. The Chargers are a de facto playoff game. —Orr
Green Bay Packers (9–4) at Seattle Seahawks (8–5)
When/TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC, Peacock
Spread: Packers -3 (over/under: 46.5)
Matchup to watch: Packers WR Jayden Reed vs. Seahawks’ secondary. Reed had a performance to forget last week, being held to just one target and no catches during the loss against the Lions. Green Bay’s offense is at its best when Reed is creating plays all over the field. But Reed has been held to 26 receiving yards or fewer in four consecutive games. Expect the Packers to get him going early and often during a pivotal matchup. But the Seahawks’ defense has taken off in the past month under first-year coach Mike Macdonald. They’re allowing only 212.5 passing yards per game, 10th best in the league. —Manzano
Key stat: Geno Smith has been under duress at times this year. Seattle has allowed 42 quarterback hits against him, eighth-most in the NFL. However, Green Bay has struggled to get consistent pressure with only 67 quarterback hits, ranking 24th in the league. —Verderame
Start ’em/sit ’em: Jordan Love’s numbers have not been great lately, as he’s scored fewer than 15 points in two of his past three games. Still, I like him in what could be a high-scoring game against the Seahawks. Their defense has allowed at least 17.9 fantasy points to seven quarterbacks this season, including four who have hit that mark since Week 8. So, despite his recent struggles, Love remains a viable fantasy starter. —Fabiano
Best bet: Seahawks +3. The Packers have had some issues when it comes to success rate, a stat that measures moving the ball a certain amount of yards depending on the down. Their defense is 28th in opponent success rate and 32nd in opponent dropback success rate. Those underlying numbers are going to continue to haunt them and now they have to hit the road to take on an improving Seahawks team on Sunday night. I’m not comfortable laying a field goal on the Packers. —MacMillan
SI’s pick: I was almost as brave as Gilberto but I took the Packers for the simple reason that the NFC West still needs more chaos and Seattle can’t simply run away with this division. —Orr
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as NFL Week 15: Best Games, Key Matchups, Fantasy Tips, Best Bets and Predictions.
