Welcome to December football.
This weekend, the NFL has a dozen games going off between Sunday and Monday. Of those contests, only the Patriots-Chargers has two teams that are more than one game out of their respective playoff pictures.
So what is going to determine the key games of the weekend? Let’s run through the slate.
Indianapolis Colts (6–5) vs. Tennessee Titans (4–7)
Key matchup: Tennessee’s offensive line vs. Colts’ front four
The Colts have won three straight, and if they make it four, look for the defensive line to play a big part. This season, Indianapolis ranks tied for sixth in sacks with 36.
Meanwhile, the Titans have had major issues protecting the quarterback. Tennessee has a sack rate of 10.2%. Only the Giants and Jets are worse.
Los Angeles Chargers (4–7) vs. New England Patriots (2–9)
Stephen R. Sylvanie / USA TODAY Sports
Key matchup: Bailey Zappe vs. Chargers’ pass defense
The Chargers have been an unmitigated tire fire defensively this season, specifically against the pass. Los Angeles is allowing a league-worst 280.7 passing yards per game and ranks tied for 30th in yards per attempt against (7.9).
Yet the question is whether Zappe can capitalize on the weakness. The Patriots have been brutal throwing the ball this year, sitting 29th in YPA (5.9) and 31st in yards per completion (9.4), only ahead of the one-win Panthers.
Detroit Lions (8–3) vs. New Orleans Saints (5–6)
Key matchup: Lions run game vs. Saints front seven
Detroit is trying to rebound after a few poor performances at home, and now heads to the Superdome. The Lions have run the ball well with David Montgomery and rookie Jahmyr Gibbs, ranking fourth in yards per carry (4.6).
This could be a big advantage against the Saints, who haven’t been able to shut down opponents on the ground. New Orleans is allowing 4.5 YPC, tied for 26th-worst in the league.
Atlanta Falcons (5–6) vs. New York Jets (4–7)
Key matchup: Jets’ third-down woes vs. Falcons defense
New York has one of the worst marks on third down in modern NFL history, only converting a measly 24.1% of the time.
Atlanta shouldn’t help matters. The Falcons have been excellent getting off the field, ranking tied for sixth-best on third down at 35.2%.
Arizona Cardinals (2–9) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (7–4)
Key matchup: Cardinals’ pressure vs. Kenny Pickett
Pickett has struggled for the majority of this season, and part of the problem has been the protection. The second-year quarterback has been under pressure 26.1% of dropbacks, fourth-most of anybody this year.
Yet this has been one weak spot of many for the Cardinals. Arizona is only creating pressure on 17.6% of pass attempts, only better than the Raiders.
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Miami Dolphins (8–3) vs. Washington Commanders (4–7)
Key matchup: Miami’s rushing attack vs. Washington’s front
The Dolphins have a prolific passing game with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle threatening to score on every play. However, they also run the ball more efficiently than any other team at 5.5 yards per carry.
Conversely, the Commanders have struggled to stop the run. Washington ranks tied for 23rd at 4.4 YPC against.
Denver Broncos (6–5) vs. Houston Texans (6–5)
Nathan Ray Seebeck/USA TODAY Sports
Key matchup: Dameon Pierce vs. Broncos’ run defense
The Texans have been prolific in the passing game with C.J. Stroud, but the rushing attack has been anemic. Houston ranks tied for 29th in yards per carry (3.7) while Pierce is averaging a paltry 3.0 YPC after a great rookie year.
Yet this could be a spot for Pierce and the Texans to get going on the ground, as the Broncos are allowing a league-worst 5.4 YPC.
Carolina Panthers (1–10) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4–7)
Key matchup: Bryce Young vs. Buccaneers’ pass defense
The Panthers have struggled mightily and now have an interim head coach in Chris Tabor. This week, Tabor will try to get Young going as Carolina has the league’s worst figure for yards per completion (8.9).
However, this could be a week to get right for the Panthers’ offense. Tampa Bay has been a sieve at times, checking in 28th by permitting 11.7 yards per completion.
Cleveland Browns (7–4) vs. Los Angeles Rams (5–6)
Key matchup: Matthew Stafford vs. Browns’ secondary
Stafford and the Rams have had a tough time completing passes this season. In fact, Los Angeles ranks 31st — only ahead of Cleveland — with a 59.5% completion rate.
Defensively, the Browns have been great at stopping the passing game. Cleveland has the lowest completion rate against (55.6%) along with topping the NFL in passing yards permitted (1,562).
San Francisco 49ers (8–3) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (10–1)
Darren Yamashita/USA TODAY Sports
Key matchup: 49ers’ red-zone offense vs. Eagles defense
Philadelphia and San Francisco mirror each other on third down, with both offenses being top-five while the defenses are in the bottom third of the league.
However, the Niners are excellent in the red zone, ranking fifth at 61.4%. This could be a huge problem for the Eagles, who check in 29th defensively inside the 20-yard line, allowing touchdowns on 64.9% of the time.
Kansas City Chiefs (8–3) vs. Green Bay Packers (5–6)
Key matchup: Patrick Mahomes vs. Packers’ pass rush
Mahomes has been pressured 23.6% of dropbacks, the 10st-highest mark in the NFL. However, because of Mahomes’ pocket awareness and mobility, the Chiefs have the league’s best sack rate against of 3.2%.
As for the Packers, their defense ranks eighth in pressure rate (24.7%) but just 21st in sacks (26). Green Bay can’t just get near Mahomes to win. It must finish.
Cincinnati Bengals (5–6) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (8–3)
Key matchup: Trevor Lawrence vs. Bengals secondary
Lawrence had a terrific game on Sunday against the Texans, throwing for more than 350 yards in a key divisional win.
This week, Lawrence and the Jaguars host the Bengals, who rank last in net yards per attempt against (7.1). This could be a big week for the Jacksonville passing attack.
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