If you’re coming here looking for picks, that’s not what this is. We’ll get to those later in the week.
This right here is an early betting preview of the upcoming action in the NFL, with a first impression of each game and betting line, with a few trends and hints sprinkled in. Sometimes, bettors can overthink things and talk themselves out of making the right pick. So these are just baseline thoughts before we take a deeper dive into the numbers later in the week.
Spreads and over/under numbers are from BetMGM and likely to change after this is published.
1
Bills at Lions (+9) (O/U: 54) (Thanksgiving)
Bills: 7-3 (5-5 ATS, 3-7 O/U)
Lions: 4-6 (6-3-1 ATS, 6-4 O/U)
It’s a short turnaround for these teams playing on Thanksgiving, which makes me think the under is a good bet. But I don’t see the Lions stopping Buffalo’s offense, so the under only hits if Buffalo’s defense can shut the Lions down.
2
Giants at Cowboys (-9) (O/U: 44.5) (Thanksgiving)
Giants: 7-3 (7-3 ATS, 2-8 O/U)
Cowboys: 7-3 (7-3 ATS, 3-7 O/U)
This also feels like it has the potential for a blowout that lands under the total, but I wonder how much of the Giants’ loss to Detroit on Sunday had to do with looking ahead to this game. Their first game against Dallas this season couldn’t have left a good taste.
3
Patriots at Vikings (-3) (O/U: 42.5) (Thanksgiving)
Patriots: 6-4 (6-3-1 ATS, 4-6 O/U)
Vikings: 8-2 (4-5-1 ATS, 4-6 O/U)
I know Minnesota is coming off a bad loss, but that’s probably bad news for the Patriots. They don’t really have the offense to keep up if the Vikings get going.
4
Bears at Jets (-4.5) (O/U: 41.5)
Bears: 3-8 (4-6-1 ATS, 7-4 O/U)
Jets: 6-4 (6-4 ATS, 3-7 O/U)
With Justin Fields’ status up in the air, the Jets are probably the way to go here. Chicago has no incentive to push Fields to play, and no Fields would also mean take the under.
5
Texans at Dolphins (-12) (O/U: 46)
Texans: 1-8-1 (4-5-1 ATS, 4-6 O/U)
Dolphins: 7-3 (4-5-1 ATS, 5-5 O/U)
The Dolphins don’t cover as much as you’d expect of a team with an offense this explosive. But if there was one game you’d predict them to cover a big spread, this is the one.
6
Buccaneers at Browns (+3) (O/U: 43.5)
Buccaneers: 5-5 (3-6-1 ATS, 2-8 O/U)
Browns: 3-7 (4-6 ATS, 7-3 O/U)
The Bucs are suddenly on a roll and I fully expect them to win this game. The question is whether their offense has improved enough to exploit a beatable Browns defense and hit this over.
7
Broncos at Panthers (+2.5) (O/U: 36)
Broncos: 3-7 (3-7 ATS, 1-9 O/U)
Panthers: 3-8 (5-6 ATS, 4-7 O/U)
This over/under is so small, and I’m still not sure these teams combine for the over. Nobody saw Russell Wilson’s Broncos being as unimpressive as the Panthers this year, but here we are.
8
Ravens at Jaguars (+4) (O/U: 44)
Ravens: 7-3 (5-5 ATS, 3-7 O/U)
Jaguars: 3-7 (3-7 ATS, 4-6 O/U)
It hasn’t always looked good with the Ravens, but they’ve proven to be four points better than the Jaguars. But how much does that hold up on the road against a team coming out the bye?
9
Bengals at Titans (+1.5) (O/U: 42.5)
Bengals: 6-4 (7-3 ATS, 4-6 O/U)
Titans: 7-3 (8-2 ATS, 3-7 O/U)
This is probably the game of the week outside of the Thanksgiving games. Tennessee has got to be feeling a little disrespected being a home dog against a team with a lesser record. Expect a tough battle.
10
Falcons at Commanders (-4) (O/U: 42)
Falcons: 5-6 (7-3-1 ATS, 6-5 O/U)
Commanders: 6-5 (6-4-1 ATS, 4-7 O/U)
I like what I’ve seen from the Commanders lately. I’m not sure I like it enough to pick them as four-point favorites against the Falcons, who are 7-3-1 ATS.
11
Chargers at Cardinals (+3.5) (O/U: 47.5)
Chargers: 5-5 (6-3-1 ATS, 5-5 O/U)
Cardinals: 4-7 (5-6 ATS, 7-4 O/U)
The Chargers offense finally got some important pieces back Sunday and came alive a bit against the Chiefs. Now, they actually have to stack some wins and I think this is a good place to start.
12
Raiders at Seahawks (-3.5) (O/U: 47.5)
Raiders: 3-7 (4-6 ATS, 6-4 O/U)
Seahawks: 6-4 (6-4 ATS, 5-5 O/U)
Seeing the teams involved, I want to take the over, but 47.5 might be a little too big for me. The Raiders got a much-needed win over the Broncos, but I don’t think their offense is close to fixed.
13
Saints at 49ers (-8.5) (O/U: 42.5)
Saints: 4-7 (4-7 ATS, 6-5 O/U)
49ers: 6-4 (5-5 ATS, 4-6 O/U)
The Niners are finally rolling, but this is a pretty big spread for a team built to run the ball. It’ll come down to how well their defense can corral the Saints’ stable of weapons on offense.
14
Rams at Chiefs (-14.5) (O/U: 44)
Rams: 3-7 (2-7-1 ATS, 4-6 O/U)
Chiefs: 8-2 (4-6 ATS, 5-5 O/U)
This is a massive spread. But if the Saints just beat the Rams by a touchdown, it’s hard to put a three-score win past the Chiefs, especially in Kansas City.
15
Packers at Eagles (-7) (O/U: 46.5)
Packers: 4-7 (4-7 ATS, 5-6 O/U)
Eagles: 9-1 (5-5 ATS, 6-4 O/U)
I’m not sure the Packers have much fight left after that Thursday night loss to the Titans. The Eagles aren’t playing their best right now, but they’re still dangerous.
16
Steelers at Colts (-3) (O/U: 39.5)
Steelers: 3-7 (4-5-1 ATS, 4-6 O/U)
Colts: 4-6-1 (5-6 ATS, 2-9 O/U)
My first takeaway is what an awful Monday night matchup this is. My second takeaway is that three points is the right line. The Colts aren’t beating anybody by more than a field goal, but they’re playing like the better team right now.
