A huge 37-point loss to the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday dropped the Minnesota Vikings’ point differential to -2 on the season. The New York Giants’ differential dropped to +1 after their 13-point loss to the Detroit Lions.
These are incredibly small point margins for teams with seven and eight wins, respectively. By comparison, the 7-3 Buffalo Bills have a +107 margin. The 8-2 Kansas City Chiefs have a +67 margin.
While both losses were disappointing — because of how it happened for the Vikings, and because of who it happed against in the case of the Giants — the teams’ small point margins suggest they weren’t really that great to begin with.
That’s not to say the Vikings and Giants aren’t good teams, but they were always flawed, and they got lucky to escape a few more close games than most teams.
That luck ran out Sunday, and now they both have quick turnarounds on Thanksgiving. Things could get worse before they get better.
Colts are warriors...ATS
Prior to hiring Jeff Saturday as their interim coach, the Indianapolis Colts were 3-6 against the spread, including 0-3 in their last games under former coach Frank Reich. Though the team lost a tight battle with the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday, they improved to 2-0 ATS under Saturday.
Say what you want about the hire, but Saturday’s Colts are competing. Maybe it’s a new energy that will eventually fade over time, but the wave is one worth riding. They have some tough games in the next few weeks, but I expect the Colts to have a shot in every last one of them.
High-powered Bears
When the Chicago Bears thumped the New England Patriots five weeks ago, I was sure they had turned a corner to become a team opponents and bettors alike had to respect. And for the most part, I was right. Even after a 27-24 loss to Atlanta on Sunday, the Bears are averaging over 29 points per game since Week 7.
However, in that loss to Atlanta, they failed to cover the spread (+2.5) for the third time in their last four games. The Bears are simultaneously improved offensively and still a team you have to bet against. Those improvement have only helped them become a team that hits overs. Chicago’s games have hit the over in five straight weeks. If you’re betting on Bears games, you’re either betting on the other team to cover or betting on the point total.
Week 11 Bad Beats
- The New York Jets did such a great job keeping the Patriots offense in check and seemed on track to cover a 3.5-point spread until this punt in the final seconds was returned for a touchdown, sending New York and its bettors to a loss.
PUNT RETURN TD WITH 5 SECONDS LEFT! @Patriots
📺: #NYJvsNE on CBS
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/0M1xbb6fcp pic.twitter.com/zF3bFuvvpI— NFL (@NFL) November 20, 2022
- The Ravens led the Panthers by 10 in the fourth quarter, needing just a field goal to cover 12.5 points. Carolina turned the ball over on four straight possessions in the quarter, including three times in their own territory, but Baltimore failed to come away with points. The deficit stayed at 10.
- Up three in the fourth quarter, the Chiefs drove into Chargers territory with a chance to cover a five-point spread and potentially put the game out of reach but fumbled away possession and a chance to win against the spread. They won outright after briefly losing the lead, which burned Chargers ML bettors too.
