If you’re coming here looking for picks, that’s not what this is. We’ll get to those later in the week.
This right here is an early betting preview of the upcoming action in the NFL, with a first impression of each game and betting line, with a few trends and hints sprinkled in. Sometimes, bettors can overthink things and talk themselves out of making the right pick. So these are just baseline thoughts before we take a deeper dive into the numbers later in the week.
Spreads and over/under numbers are from BetMGM and likely to change after this is published.
1
Titans at Packers (-3) (O/U: 42)
Titans: 6-3 (7-2 ATS, 2-7 O/U)
Packers: 4-6 (4-6 ATS, 4-6 O/U)
It’s wild that a 6-3 division leader is an underdog to a 4-6 team nobody thinks is actually good. But that’s the kind of season it’s been, and after the Packers’ win over Dallas, no one would be surprised to see them beat the Titans.
2
Lions at Giants (-3.5) (O/U: 46.5)
Lions: 3-6 (5-3-1 ATS, 5-4 O/U)
Giants: 7-2 (7-2 ATS, 1-8 O/U)
Detroit has turned into one of the more unpredictable teams, showing up only when it decides to. And the Giants have a tendency to make every game close. So this could really go either way against the spread.
3
Jets at Patriots (-3) (O/U: 38.5)
Jets: 6-3 (6-3 ATS, 3-6 O/U)
Patriots: 5-4 (5-3-1 ATS, 4-5 O/U)
New England can actually tie the AFC East division leaders with a win here, and that’s absolutely wild to think about after how the season started. And because of how bad the QB play has been on both these teams, it’s no telling which way it goes.
4
Rams at Saints (-3) (O/U: 39)
Rams: 3-6 (2-6-1 ATS, 3-6 O/U)
Saints: 3-7 (3-7 ATS, 3-7 O/U)
The Saints could barely score in Sunday’s loss to a bad Steelers team, and they’re still favored over the Rams. That’s how far the Super Bowl champs have fallen. Oh, and now Cooper Kupp isn’t likely to play soon.
5
Eagles at Colts (+8.5) (O/U: 44.5)
Eagles: 8-1 (5-4 ATS, 6-3 O/U)
Colts: 4-5-1 (4-6 ATS, 2-8 O/U)
Indy plays good defense and found its running game in Sunday’s win over the Raiders. As we saw in Washington’s win Monday night, that can be a recipe to beat the Eagles.
6
Browns at Bills (-9.5) (O/U: 47)
Browns: 3-6 (4-5 ATS, 6-3 O/U)
Bills: 6-3 (4-5 ATS, 2-7 O/U)
Buffalo is reeling a little bit, which seems like bad news for Cleveland. If there was ever a spot to get right for Josh Allen and co., it would be this game at home.
7
Bears at Falcons (-3) (O/U: 50)
Bears: 3-7 (4-5-1 ATS, 6-4 O/U)
Falcons: 4-6 (6-3-1 ATS, 5-5 O/U)
I feel a whole lot better about the Bears than the Falcons right now. And maybe that means I’m undervaluing the Panthers a little, but I can’t get past how bad Atlanta looked against a team I thought they should beat handily.
8
Panthers at Ravens (-12) (O/U: 43.5)
Panthers: 3-7 (4-6 ATS, 4-6 O/U)
Ravens: 6-3 (5-4 ATS, 3-6 O/U)
Speaking of the Panthers, this is the type of spread I expect them to face on a regular basis. But every time they play a division game, they look like a different team. This isn’t a division game, though.
9
Commanders at Texans (+2.5) (O/U: 40.5)
Commanders: 5-5 (5-4-1 ATS, 4-6 O/U)
Texans: 1-7 (4-4-1 ATS, 4-5 O/U)
It’s surprising this spread isn’t larger after what Washington showed in Philadelphia, but if there was a team at risk of falling back to earth, this is the one.
10
Raiders at Broncos (-2.5) (O/U: 41.5)
Raiders: 2-7 (3-6 ATS, 6-3 O/U)
Broncos: 3-6 (3-6 ATS, 1-8 O/U)
Alas, one of the two AFC West teams that have turned what was supposed to be an unprecedented division race into a major disappointment will finally win another game … or maybe it ends in a tie. That would be more fitting.
11
Cowboys at Vikings (+1) (O/U: 47.5)
Cowboys: 6-3 (6-3 ATS, 3-6 O/U)
Vikings: 8-1 (4-4-1 ATS, 4-5 O/U)
In the week after the Cowboys are upset by the Packers and the Vikings beat the mighty Bills, the Cowboys are favored? On the road? Yeah, it sounds off but that’s about right for a weird year. Besides, both those games had elements of fluke in them.
12
Bengals at Steelers (+4.5) (O/U: 41.5)
Bengals: 5-4 (6-3 ATS, 3-6 O/U)
Steelers: 3-6 (4-4-1 ATS, 3-6 O/U)
The first time these teams played actually resulted in 43 points, which would hit the over on the line for this game. And Cincy probably feels like it owes Pitt some payback for that game, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Bengals let it fly.
13
Chiefs at Chargers (+7) (O/U: 49.5)
Chiefs: 7-2 (4-5 ATS, 4-5 O/U)
Chargers: 5-4 (5-3-1 ATS, 4-5 O/U)
The circumstances around this game feels totally different than when these teams played the first time and KC came from behind to win by three. It’s just hard to feel good about the Chargers right now with all of their injuries.
14
49ers at Cardinals (+7.5) (O/U: 43.5)
49ers: 5-4 (4-5 ATS, 3-6 O/U)
Cardinals: 4-6 (5-5 ATS, 6-4 O/U)
The Cards can get right back into the Wild Card and potentially division race with a win here, but even with the small margin in records between these teams, the Niners feel like the much better team.
