It wasn’t difficult picking the five best games for Week 11 in the NFL.
There are multiple intriguing divisional battles that could have huge playoff implications in the final weeks of the regular season. The winner between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens will take control of the AFC North, which means the loser might have to get used to the idea of making the postseason as a wild-card team.
It’s only the first of two battles between these divisional foes, so plenty can change from Sunday to Week 16 when they meet again in Baltimore. But this game could say plenty about the Russell Wilson–led Steelers, who are 3–0 since coach Mike Tomlin decided to move on from Justin Fields as the starter.
The San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks are meeting for the second time, but surprisingly neither is currently leading the NFC West. The winner of this matchup will gain ground on the first-place Arizona Cardinals, who are on their bye week.
The Los Angeles Chargers are a surprise team in the AFC, but they haven’t received much respect after building a 6–3 record by beating teams with losing records. If Justin Herbert and the Chargers get the best of Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals during Sunday Night Football, they might finally be taken seriously as a playoff contender.
But no game in Week 11 is bigger than the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs going on the road to face the Buffalo Bills, winners of five consecutive games. If the Chiefs win to improve to 10–0, they might be well on their way to clinching the No. 1 seed in the AFC. As for the Bills, they’ll have plenty of confidence if they beat the team that has given them plenty of postseason heartbreak in recent seasons.
We’ll also keep tabs on the Atlanta Falcons vs. Denver Broncos to round out our five best games of the week. Here’s everything you need to know, including Gilberto Manzano’s key matchups, Matt Verderame’s key stats, Michael Fabiano’s who to start and who to sit in fantasy, Iain MacMillan’s best bets and Conor Orr’s prediction for each game.
Start ’em/Sit ’em | MMQB Staff Picks | NFL Betting Picks
SUNDAY
Baltimore Ravens (7–3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (7–2)
When/TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Spread: Ravens -3 (over/under: 48.5)
Matchup to watch: Ravens WR Zay Flowers vs. Steelers CB Joey Porter Jr. The Steelers once again have one of the better defenses in the league, but they’ve had their ups and downs in the secondary. It’s going to be vital for Porter and the other defensive backs to limit the downfield shots for Lamar Jackson because they’re going to have their hands full with Derrick Henry. Flowers has 50 catches for 688 yards and three touchdowns this season. Pittsburgh is allowing 215.6 passing yards per game, 19th best in the league. —Manzano
Key stat: The Ravens easily lead the league averaging 5.7 yards per carry, with Henry and Jackson leading the way. However, Pittsburgh’s defense is tied for third-best in the metric at 3.8. Whoever wins that battle likely wins the game and controls the AFC North. —Verderame
Start ’em/sit ’em: Wilson has looked good since taking over as the Steelers’ starting quarterback, scoring 18-plus points in two of his first three games. He would have hit that mark in Week 8, too, but he had two touchdowns called back. He has a great matchup Sunday, facing a Ravens pass defense that’s allowed quarterbacks to beat them for 20-plus points six times in 2024. —Fabiano
Best bet: Steelers +3. With Wilson playing as well as he has in his first three starts, the Steelers look like legitimate contenders in the AFC. He ranks sixth in EPA+CPOE amongst all starting quarterbacks and now he gets to face a Ravens defense that has struggled to stop the pass all season. That, paired with an elite Pittsburgh defense, leaves me no choice but back to back the Steelers as three-point home underdogs against their AFC North rival. —MacMillan
SI’s pick: Ravens. While Baltimore’s pass defense might be bendable enough for Wilson to continue his streak of good fortune, I don’t know many teams who are scoring at the Ravens’ clip right now as Jackson continues an epic heater. This one will be tight but will come down to the last possession where Jackson cannot be discounted. —Orr
Atlanta Falcons (6–4) at Denver Broncos (5–5)
When/TV: 1 p.m. ET, Fox
Spread: Broncos -2.5 (over/under: 44.5)
Matchup to watch: Broncos WR Courtland Sutton vs. Falcons S Justin Simmons. The Falcons probably could have beaten the Saints last week by 10 points if the secondary didn’t allow Marquez Valdes-Scantling to break free for two touchdowns. Instead, New Orleans got the upset win and gave Atlanta plenty to think about regarding its disappointing secondary this season. Simmons will aim to improve the pass defense in Denver, where the standout safety spent his first eight NFL seasons before joining Atlanta in the offseason. Sutton, who has 42 catches for 569 yards this season, could give his former teammate plenty of fits downfield. —Manzano
Key stat: The Falcons invested heavily in their passing attack this offseason by signing quarterback Kirk Cousins, and it’s paid off. Atlanta ranks seventh at 7.9 yards per attempt. However, Denver’s terrific defense is fourth at 6.5 YPA against. —Verderame
Start ’em/sit ’em: Kyle Pitts has seen his numbers drop in the past two weeks, scoring a combined 11.6 fantasy points with a mere five catches. He also has a tough matchup against the Broncos, who have allowed single digits to every tight end not named Travis Kelce or Brock Bowers. That list includes players such as Mark Andrews, Cade Otton and Pat Freiermuth. —Fabiano
Best bet: Falcons +2.5. The Broncos’ defense is elite, but let’s give the Falcons’ offense the credit it deserves. Dating back to Week 5, Atlanta ranks third in EPA per play and second in success rate. The Falcons can attack teams on the ground and through the air. It’s also worth noting that while the Falcons’ defense has had some issues, they’re allowing just 9.1 second-half points per game. I’ll back them as slight underdogs on Denver. —MacMillan
SI’s pick: Denver. This Broncos team played Kansas City incredibly tough and the Falcons, while successful on the ground against New Orleans a week ago, wasted a lot of possessions and are struggling on special teams. Denver isn’t a total playoff contender yet in my mind but neither are the Falcons, who tend to get pushed around from time to time. —Orr
Seattle Seahawks (4–5) at San Francisco 49ers (5–4)
When/TV: 4:05 p.m. ET, Fox
Spread: 49ers -6.5 (over/under: 48.5)
Matchup to watch: 49ers WR Jauan Jennings vs. Seahawks CB Riq Woolen. Jennings has emerged as Brock Purdy’s favorite target on money downs. Jennings constantly helped the 49ers move the chains in last week’s come-from-behind victory against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, recording seven catches for 93 yards. Woolen, who has two interceptions this season, will need to contain Jennings to prevent the 49ers from producing long drives. Seattle failed to get stops when it mattered during its first meeting against San Francisco in Week 6. —Manzano
Key stat: No team gets more mileage out of a completion than the 49ers, who average 13.6 yards each time they connect. Conversely, Seattle’s defense is a middling 14th defensively in the metric at 10.8 yards. If Purdy gets the best of this matchup, the Seahawks are in for a long afternoon —Verderame
Start ’em/sit ’em: Listed as a start ’em this past week, Jennings had seven catches and scored 16.3 points. He has been highly productive when he’s played, sporting a +27.2 Receiving Expected Points Added. DK Sportsbook opened this game against the Seahawks at 49.5, and their defense has allowed the eighth-most points per game to the perimeter in 2024. —Fabiano
Best bet: 49ers -6.5. The 49ers have been much better than their record indicates, and now with Christian McCaffrey back in the lineup, I have a feeling they’re about to get hot. They rank second in the NFL in net yards per play (+1.4) behind the Ravens. They also outgained the Seahawks in their first meeting at 7.9 yards per play to 4.9 yards per play. All signs point to the 49ers steamrolling them. —MacMillan
SI’s pick: 49ers. Seattle needs to stop its slide and is in a difficult spot against a 49ers offense that should only improve over the next few weeks as McCaffrey assimilates. But it’s not just McCaffrey. Ricky Pearsall is already making his presence known and is another weapon for defenses to account for. —Orr
Kansas City Chiefs (9–0) at Buffalo Bills (8–2)
When/TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
Spread: Bills -2.5 (over/under: 46.5)
Matchup to watch: Bills RB James Cook vs. Chiefs’ defensive front. Cook might need to deliver his best game of the season to get by the undefeated Chiefs with a banged-up group of pass catchers. Keon Coleman has already been ruled out this week and Amari Cooper and Dalton Kincaid could be game-time decisions due to injuries. It’s a daunting challenge, but Cook has been the Bills’ best skill player this season, with 576 rushing yards and eight touchdowns. He’ll go up against a Kansas City defensive front that’s only allowing 83.2 rushing yards per game, third best in the league. —Manzano
Key stat: The Chiefs are an above-average offensive team that turns into a juggernaut on third down. Kansas City is converting 52% of the time, the highest mark since the 2021 Chiefs. Buffalo is only 21st on third down defensively (40%), which could be the difference on Sunday. —Verderame
Start ’em/sit ’em: Kareem Hunt has been fabulous since rejoining the Chiefs, averaging just under 17 fantasy points per game. His success should continue in what is a huge AFC battle against the Bills, who have struggled against running backs. Their defense has allowed 4.7 yards per rush and the second-most points per game to the position this season. What’s more, enemy runners have scored 19-plus points six times. —Fabiano
Best bet: Chiefs +2.5. When the Chiefs are set as underdogs, throw all metrics out the window except for one: They’re 11–1–1 against the spread when Patrick Mahomes is an underdog. If you dig into the advanced metrics, the Bills are the better team, but that has been the case many times when the Chiefs are underdogs and they still find a way to win. Big players make big plays in big games and no player is bigger than Mahomes. —MacMillan
SI’s pick: Buffalo. Because the Chiefs have to lose at some point, right? This could be one of those valuable course correction games for the Chiefs as they figure out what they can get away with over the longterm and what they’ll be punished for against teams at the top tier of the NFL. —Orr
Cincinnati Bengals (4–6) at Los Angeles Chargers (6–3)
When/TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC, Peacock
Spread: Chargers -1.5 (over/under: 47.5)
Matchup to watch: Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase vs. Chargers S Derwin James. It’s almost a given that Chase will find a way to impact most games, even against defenses as good as the one the Chargers have with defensive coordinator Jesse Minter. But the best way to cover Chase is to limit the explosive plays. It will be on James, a two-time first-team All-Pro, to limit the damage against Chase, who had touchdowns of 67 and 70 yards during last week’s loss against the Ravens. Los Angeles allows a league-best 13.1 points per game. —Manzano
Key stat: Cincinnati’s passing offense has been excellent with Burrow and Chase leading the effort. The Bengals average 254.8 passing yards per game, fourth-best in the NFL. However, the Chargers are ninth-best at 191.6 passing yards per game against. —Verderame
Start ’em/sit ’em: Chase Brown has a bad matchup this week facing a Chargers defense allowing the third-fewest points per game to backs. Still, he was able to put up a nice line last week against a tough Ravens run defense, and he’s seen a near 50% touch share in Cincinnati’s offense since the team lost Zack Moss. I’m starting Brown with confidence. —Fabiano
Best bet: Bengals +1.5. The Chargers play an old-school style of football where they take care of the ball, play strong defense and squeak out victories. That style will work against inferior opponents, but they’re 0–2 against teams ranked inside the top 10 in EPA per play. When they play a strong offense, they tend to get overpowered. That’s exactly what I expect to happen in this one. The Bengals’ pass-attack will overpower a Chargers team that is taking steps in the right direction but is a year or two away from being a true contender. —MacMillan
SI’s pick: Chargers. These teams are similar in that they are both trying to rebuild around a talented franchise quarterback but the difference for the Chargers are the contributions they’re getting from the bottom third of the roster. Their fifth-round picks playing well in the secondary. Their offensive linemen are adding value as H-back blockers. The Harbaugh approach is changing life in L.A. —Orr
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as NFL Week 11: Best Games, Key Matchups, Fantasy Tips, Best Bets and Predictions.
