It’s all about the playoff contenders now that the NFL trade deadline has come and gone and we’re in the second half of the season.
But there are a few teams that have been going back and forth between contender and pretender. Week 10 in the NFL will likely tell us a lot about those teams.
The Washington Commanders went from a surprising team to one that is now being taken seriously as a Super Bowl contender because of the splash trade for former Saints cornerback Marshon Lattimore. The Pittsburgh Steelers also gained more respect as a contender after acquiring wide receiver Mike Williams and edge rusher Preston Smith. There will be many new faces in new places when the Commanders host the Steelers on Sunday for one of the best games of Week 10.
The Arizona Cardinals are another surprise team in the NFC competing for a division title. Kyler Murray & Co. can gain more respect in the NFC West by defeating the New York Jets, who became a sleeper contender after defeating the Houston Texans to save their season last week.
The Texans have an opportunity to shock the football world if they’re able to get by the dominant Detroit Lions, who recently acquired edge rusher Za’Darius Smith.
These are three of our five best games of the week. We’ll also keep an eye on the Denver Broncos potentially handing the Kansas City Chiefs their first loss of the season, and the Philadelphia Eagles going up against the Dallas Cowboys in an NFC East clash.
Here’s everything you need to know about the five best games of Week 10, including Gilberto Manzano’s key matchups, Matt Verderame’s key stats, Michael Fabiano’s who to start and who to sit in fantasy, Iain MacMillan’s best bets and Conor Orr’s prediction for each game.
Start ’em/Sit ’em | MMQB Staff Picks | NFL Betting Picks
SUNDAY
Pittsburgh Steelers (6–2) at Washington Commanders (7–2)
When/TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Spread: Commanders -2.5 (over/under: 45.5)
Matchup to watch: Commanders CB Lattimore vs. Steelers WR George Pickens. If Lattimore makes his Washington debut this week, he’ll have his hands full with Pickens, who has established a strong connection with Russell Wilson. Pickens has nine catches for 185 yards and one touchdown since Wilson took over two games ago. Lattimore, a four-time Pro Bowler, has had an up-and-down season playing with the Saints’ poor defense. —Manzano
Key stat: The Commanders need to run the ball to win, but it won’t be easy against the Steelers. Washington averages five yards per carry, fifth best in football. However, Pittsburgh has been a wall against the run, permitting just four yards per carry, tied for fourth best. —Verderame
Start ’em/sit ’em: Najee Harris has been on fire lately, scoring at least 16.1 points in each of his past three games. He’s also averaged around 20 touches in those contests. I’d keep him in fantasy lineups against the Commanders, who have allowed 14-plus points to six opposing running backs, including two who have gone over 18 points in two of their past three games. —Fabiano
Best bet: Under 45.5. The Commanders have been impressive this season, but they’ve only faced one team currently ranked in the top half of the NFL in opponent EPA per play. That team was the Chicago Bears and they put up only 18 points against them. Based on the Steelers' defense, an improved Washington defense, and a run-first Steelers offense I think the under is the play in this one. —MacMillan
SI’s pick: I took the Steelers in this one, even though the Commanders are riding a bit of a tailwind from the trade deadline and have massively upgraded their secondary. There’s something to this Steelers team that I think could give Jayden Daniels some fits and I’m eager to see him against T.J. Watt for the first time. —Orr
Denver Broncos (5–4) at Kansas City Chiefs (8–0)
When/TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Spread: Chiefs -7.5 (over/under: 41.5)
Matchup to watch: Chiefs RB Kareem Hunt vs. Broncos’ defensive front. Denver will need to make the Chiefs one dimensional to have a chance at handing the back-to-back Super Bowl champions their first loss of the season. Hunt has taken over as the Chiefs’ lead back after a few weeks of competing with Samaje Perine and Carson Steele during Isiah Pacheco’s absence. Hunt is coming off his best performance of the season, rushing for 106 yards in the overtime win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Broncos allowed 106 rushing yards to Derrick Henry last week. —Manzano
Key stat: The Broncos and Chiefs both love to blitz. Denver is second in blitz percentage (35.6%) while Kansas City is third (35.0%). Both also get rid of the ball quickly, with each offense in the top eight of sack percentage allowed. In this game, who gets to the quarterback more, and more quickly? —Verderame
Start ’em/sit ’em: Javonte Wiliams has been very unreliable the past four weeks, scoring fewer than 11 points three times. Things don’t figure to get better this week facing a Chiefs defense that has been brutal on running backs. In fact, not a single runner has beaten them for more than 13.2 points. So, even during the bye weeks, Williams needs to be benched if possible. —Fabiano
Best bet: Broncos +7.5. Let’s be honest, the Chiefs haven’t played well enough to be this big of favorites against one of the best defenses in the NFL. They failed to cover similar spreads against the Las Vegas Raiders and a banged-up Buccaneers team the past two weeks and were even outgained 5.5 yards per play to 4.6 yards per play against Tampa Bay on Monday night. Denver’s defense is good enough to keep them in the mix in this game. Broncos +7.5 is the bet to make. —MacMillan
SI’s pick: I lone-wolfed the Broncos this week even after Denver had its doors blown off by the Baltimore Ravens. The reason? I’ve seen the Chiefs displaying some signs of fatigue. Sure they are winning all of their games but situationally, there were moments in that Vegas game and against the Buccaneers (down their top three receivers) where those games could have turned on a dime. Denver is desperate and Sean Payton is looking for a win against an opponent that is not a part of Conference USA. —Orr
Philadelphia Eagles (6–2) at Dallas Cowboys (3–5)
When/TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
Spread: Eagles -7 (over/under: 42.5)
Matchup to watch: Eagles RB Saquon Barkley vs. Cowboys’ defensive front. With many injured stars on both sides, this NFC East matchup might come down to what Barkley does on the field. Barkley is making a strong case for Offensive Player of the Year, with 925 rushing yards, second best in the league behind Henry. But Barkley, who recorded 159 rushing yards against the Jaguars last week, could run into trouble if the Cowboys get back Micah Parsons, who has missed the past four games due to an ankle injury. —Manzano
Key stat: The Cowboys have been completely ineffective running the ball all year. They average just 3.8 yards per carry, with only the Raiders being worse. With Cooper Rush in the lineup, that needs to change or Dallas is going to have a long afternoon. —Verderame
Start ’em/sit ’em: DeVonta Smith is on a hot streak, scoring 39.2 points in his past two games. He should remain in startling lineups this week in an NFC East clash with a struggling Cowboys defense that allowed three wide receivers to beat them for double digits last week, including Drake London who missed a lot of the game. A.J. Brown is banged up, so Smith is a strong play. —Fabiano
Best bet: Eagles -7. The Cowboys have statistically been one of the worst teams in the NFL this season and now with Dak Prescott injured, they have to roll with Rush. Unless Prescott was the source of all their offensive problems, they’re only going to be worse Sunday. My main concern for Dallas is its defense. It enters this week ranked 30th in opponent EPA along with having the worst run defense in the league. Now, they have to face one of the most potent rush attacks in the Eagles, who have run through their opponents on a weekly basis this season. I truly don’t see how the Cowboys can keep pace on either side of the ball with Philadelphia, which has established itself as a top contender in the NFC. I’m backing the Eagles at -7. —MacMillan
SI’s pick: Philadelphia. Again, are the Eagles going to cover here? Possibly not. Dallas has been excellent at scoring late in games, making it look like the team is reasonably close and has turned in a solid effort. But OC Kellen Moore seems to have reached a point where he’s dialing up some excellent game plans for Jalen Hurts and the two appear to be on the same page, giving Hurts a semblance of comfort he’s not had since Shane Steichen was in the OC chair. —Orr
New York Jets (3–6) at Arizona Cardinals (5–4)
When/TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
Spread: Jets -1.5 (over/under: 45.5)
Matchup to watch: Cardinals WR Marvin Harrison Jr. vs. Jets CB Sauce Gardner. Harrison, the 2024 No. 4 pick, has had an inconsistent rookie season. One week he’s torching the Miami Dolphins’ secondary and the next week he’s nowhere to be found against the Bears. The Cardinals are going to need the talented rookie to make an impact against one of the best cornerbacks in the league. Gardner hasn’t been as good as he was the past two seasons, but he’s still capable of shutting down the best playmakers in the NFL. —Manzano
Key stat: Can the Cardinals pick up some yards after the catch? Nobody has been better at eliminating those than the Jets, who have given up just 641 such yards this season. Meanwhile, Kyler Murray has thrown for only 797 yards after catch, 21st-best in the NFL. —Verderame
Start ’em/sit ’em: Harrison has not lived up to rookie expectations, scoring single digits in four of his past five games. That includes a 3.4-point stinker last week against the Bears. I’d keep him on the sidelines this week, too, as he’ll face a Jets defense allowing the fewest fantasy points per game to wideouts, including the fourth-fewest on the perimeter. —Fabiano
Best bet: Jets -1.5. This week is a huge sell-high spot on the Cardinals. They have a great offense, but their defense still ranks 28th in the league in opponent EPA per play. They’re going to be in trouble when they face a team with a strong defense and an offense that can move the ball, which is the Jets. New York leads the NFL in opponent dropback success rate and is third in opponent yards per pass attempt. The Jets will prove Sunday that they’re better than their record. —MacMillan
SI’s pick: I like the Jets against all markers of common sense in my head. Arizona is playing well, it’s at home and the offensive line demolished a good Bears front last week even when the passing game was shut down. And, yet, this Jets team, if they ever all started pushing in the same direction, is so talented. I wonder if the Garrett Wilson catch was the catalyst for a major turnaround. —Orr
Detroit Lions (7–1) at Houston Texans (6–3)
When/TV: 7:20 p.m. ET, NBC, Peacock
Spread: Lions -3.5 (over/under: 48.5)
Matchup to watch: Texans QB C.J. Stroud vs. Lions’ secondary. If the Texans are going to have any shot of beating the dominant Lions, they’re going to need Stroud to deliver one of the best performances of his young career. Detroit’s secondary has improved, but the unit allows many explosive plays. Stroud could pick them apart with Tank Dell and Nico Collins, who could be back from a hamstring injury. But attacking Detroit downfield will require vast improvements from Houston’s offensive line. Stroud has been sacked 31 times this season, second worst in the league. —Manzano
Key stat: The Texans are a good team with an awful offensive line. Stroud has faced the third-highest pressure rate (29.8%) this season while only the Cleveland Browns have permitted more sacks. Expect Detroit to dial up plenty of pressure looks, as it ranks sixth in blitz percentage at 29.8%. —Verderame
Start ’em/sit ’em: It’s tough to sit Sam LaPorta with four teams on a bye, but he has not been the same player he was as a rookie. He’s failed to score double digits in all but two games, including just 4.8 points last week, and this week’s contest in Houston is a tough one. Only two tight ends have beaten them for more than 7.2 points, and no tight end has scored more than 13.1. —Fabiano
Best bet: Under 48.5. I’m shocked the total for this game is this high. Believe it or not, these two teams have had two of the best defenses in the NFL this season, ranking fifth and eighth in opponent EPA. Since Week 6, the Lions have led the NFL in opponent EPA per play and are fourth in opponent success rate. You may look at these two teams as offensive powerhouses, but it’s their defenses have been winning games. Don’t be shocked if this is a low-scoring affair. —MacMillan
SI’s pick: I am putting this one on blowout watch. Unless the Lions are sapped and tired from a few high-octane emotional victories in a row, they should handily dispose of the Texans, the best team I’m worried about in the NFL right now. Houston sustained a lot of injuries to key positions and the interior of their offensive line is causing a lot of issues in Stroud’s world. All of that adds up to a difficult ask in beating the presumptive NFC champions. —Orr
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as NFL Week 10: Best Games, Key Matchups, Fantasy Tips, Best Bets and Predictions .
