The trade deadline has come and gone, with a record number of deals on deadline day itself. Of course, this process begins months before, at the end of training camp when general managers realize how strong or weak their rosters really are. The running dialogue commences in what has become another made-for-television moment for the NFL.
Who did well? Who missed a great opportunity? We break it all down right here:
WINNERS
Scott Fitterer
While I would have taken two first-round picks for Brian Burns, it’s not hard to understand why the Panthers’ GM wouldn’t want to acquire picks theoretically unusable until after the next presidential election. (Though on the flip side, he could bundle those picks as ammunition to improve this year’s haul—it’s a really interesting question, and draft economists have some fascinating thoughts on how silly it is that teams overvalue immediate picks in lieu of better picks down the road.) Fitterer now has six picks in the top 150 of this year’s draft, and while he may have been able to squeeze a bit more juice out of the Christian McCaffrey trade, his haul for an extremely talented (but older and injury-prone) running back was good. And based on their performances since, it clearly didn’t destroy the team’s psyche.
Kyle Shanahan and Christian McCaffrey
We have full thoughts here, but it feels like this was the final piece of Shanahan’s stylistic vision come to life. The 49ers wouldn’t have paid a premium for McCaffrey if it wasn’t. For one, I like the move for McCaffrey personally. This feels like a place he could potentially spend another half decade, aging gracefully in the system instead of getting run into the ground. The 49ers acquired Kyle Juszczyk before his age-26 season, and Shanhan is still keeping Juszczyk busy into his early 30s (different situation, obviously, but Juszczyk is certainly still taking his hits). The trade also freed up Jeff Wilson Jr., who was flipped to Miami to help defray the cost.
Ryan Poles and Matt Eberflus
Part 1 of my Bears praise here: I don’t think a rebuild needs to be as static as we sometimes make it out to be. Yes, the Bears got a premium pick back for Roquan Smith and then sent it straight away for Chase Claypool, but they are also setting the parameters for what they want out of a roster in the future. Poles, a rookie GM, showed he could extract solid value and, in the case of Claypool specifically, I don’t mind the idea of renting him for a year before having to wade into the Christian Kirk (and beyond) contractual waters, especially if Chicago is hoping Claypool can evolve into an Allen Lazard–type player (which would mean some improvement on the run blocking front). As we mentioned in the trade grades, I also like the idea that Eberflus isn’t tied to anyone starting with next year’s draft. He built one hell of a defense in Indianapolis.
Justin Fields and Luke Getsy
From a tactical standpoint, if you have a burner getting downfield you’re taking one more defensive player out of the equation if and when Justin Fields decides to take off and run. From an aesthetic standpoint, Claypool offers you much more than a basic burner. I think the Bears are just starting to hit their stride offensively. We mentioned the Cowboys game in the trade grades, and Fields’s zone-read game is so good right now—he had DeMarcus Lawrence stumbling a few times Sunday. Fields was also pushing the ball downfield pretty well and nearly connected with Velus Jones on a deep shot. Claypool gives them another wrinkle and another player you might want taking a handoff in the backfield from a different angle.
Howie Roseman
I don’t know how expansive Roseman’s plan was a few years ago, or whether he pushed it into hyperdrive once he saw the early success of Nick Sirianni, but this roster has gone from pleasant surprise to the second-best chance of winning a Super Bowl in the NFL. The addition of Robert Quinn is a game-changer, and the best kind for a team with playoff aspirations. As we discussed on The MMQB NFL Podcast this week, Quinn is stylistically different but has the potential to be a Von Miller–type presence. Dwight Freeney–plus. What matters in big games are the little moments when a left tackle is facing off against a veteran pass rusher, who has been prodding the lineman all game for weak spots and then finally hits him with a move he’s been refining for more than a decade.
I think what I like about Roseman’s plan the most is that it allows him to be wrong. The Eagles don’t have to win a certain way for this to work. They can win in myriad ways, now, including, and especially, a messy defensive game.
Running backs
Christian McCaffrey was dealt to the 49ers. James Robinson is now a member of the Jets. Jeff Wilson is en route to Miami. Nyheim Hines is in Buffalo. The Bills wanted Alvin Kamara. Almost all of these moves were a signal that their respective teams were going for it, or at least getting markedly better. Hines could very well save Josh Allen from taking some unnecessary hits down the stretch (in that maybe Allen utilizes the checkdown a little more), and McCaffrey is already triple-crowning in San Francisco. Robinson could be a stabilizing factor for young Jets quarterback Zach Wilson.
Odell Beckham Jr.
While I think too much has been made about the “sweepstakes” to sign Beckham once he recovers from his torn ACL, the fact that the young wide receiver market stayed somewhat stagnant makes him a more valuable commodity come late November or early December. It’s still probably a thin market between a handful of absolute contenders and fringe contenders (with the Rams being the only team among them who truly have a dearth of receiving talent).
Joe Schoen
The Giants’ GM is—I feel like I say this a lot—the first outside personnel voice the team has had since the late 1970s (the GM job was passed to George Young deputy Ernie Accorsi, then Accorsi deputy Jerry Reese, then Accorsi deputy Dave Gettleman). Schoen did a fine job of balancing the fact that his team is in contention with the fact that they may not be ready to compete with the top of the NFC. They subtracted at the deadline and didn’t add. His reasoning: “When we made the [Kadarius] Toney move, we talked to the captains and let them know we’re always going to win. [Brian] Daboll and I are super competitive, and we’re always going to try to do what’s best for the organization. But again, you just can’t be reckless with those draft picks and the future capital, where we are as we build this thing. Again, there’s a lot of players that are here that we like. Some were here before I got here that have done a really good job for us and are good players. Just being smart, we didn’t want to be reckless with it.”
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Kwesi Adofo-Mensah
While I don’t think a ton of people were wild about the massive trade down with Detroit, I like Adofo-Mensah’s mentality about trading within the division. It’s sort of a dated issue, especially with the expanded wild card. There are more avenues into the playoffs, even if the most secure one is still winning the division. In T.J. Hockenson, we’ll see. He did not materialize as the modern, solve-everything player in Detroit despite the team hiring a former tight end as his head coach. But if Hockenson can become the kind of mismatch he was billed to be, this is a steal for Minnesota and, in many ways, the reverse of a fear you might have in trading with a divisional opponent. It guts the Lions twice a year seeing him play well.
LOSERS
F--- them picks strategy
For now. I say again: for now. I think Les Snead is brilliant—he built a Super Bowl champion—but every strategy is both good and bad, and at this exact moment in time the Rams are struggling with both draft equity and making themselves a destination for veteran talent. This was inevitable once some of their core players began to show some signs of age. They reportedly got outbid for Christian McCaffrey, and the picks they would have sent for Brian Burns aren’t happening soon enough. We’re not saying the Rams are crumbling. We’re not saying they’re going to miss the playoffs. But we are saying that sometimes, their operating procedure creates situations that make expansion difficult. This was one of those situations.
Aging quarterbacks
No help at the trade deadline for Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers or Matthew Stafford. While there doesn’t seem to be a quick fix, any of them would have benefited from an additional wide receiver, perhaps some ancillary blocking help or a versatile blocker/pass catcher, etc. There were options on the market, but these three Super Bowl–winning stalwarts will have to look within their roster for help. As we’ve said in the past, this feels the least complicated for Brady and the most complicated for Rodgers, with Stafford falling somewhere in between. Last year, it took about three weeks for the Rams to make Odell Beckham Jr. more than just play bait.
Broncos
A GM that signed Russell Wilson to a massive, five-year deal also had to make a play for draft equity on trade deadline day, which is a scary proposition. George Paton dealt Bradley Chubb, and while the Broncos netted a (likely late) first-round pick in return from the Dolphins (via the 49ers from the Trey Lance trade), they stripped their defense of a pure edge rusher. First-year defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero has been brilliant to this point, but can he shoulder a situation where he lost 15% of his quarterback pressures overnight? Perhaps Denver sees Chubb as very good (among the best pass-rush win rates in the NFL, according to ESPN), but not good enough to draw consistent double teams.
Jerry Jeudy
Jeudy was among the players reportedly available in the Broncos’ fire sale, though he will remain with Russell Wilson for the foreseeable future. While we don’t know what Denver ended up asking for, or who was interested, Jeudy would have represented a marked upgrade for the Packers. He is currently better than any receiver they have on the roster, and would stylistically complement Allen Lazard who, while unsexy statistically, is a hinge piece in that offense and a beastly blocker. Jeudy is not an elite route runner, but he gets open (if his quarterback isn’t staring down a covered wide receiver, he may realize it).
Alvin Kamara
In his age-27 season, Kamara is making good money and has one more year left on his contract until he’s pretty easy to release. He is a superstar back in an offense that is spotty at best, slowly shuttering in the post–Sean Payton era. I think at this point in his career, Kamara probably quite enjoys being a thriving part of an in-contention offense, and he absolutely would have had that chance in Philadelphia, Buffalo, Los Angeles or elsewhere. The Bills, according to Fox Sports, called the Saints to inquire.
Jerry Jones
The Cowboys were linked to Brandin Cooks and … not a great deal else. While Dallas has been one of the upper-echelon franchises of the last decade in the NFL, it always seem to come a bit short when it comes to making a move, or series of moves, that could push it over the edge. For years, it was ignoring their middling coaching situation or failing to replenish their pass rush, among other complaints. Now, they have a franchise quarterback, a suite of offensive playmakers, the best pass rusher in the NFL and an elite coaching staff that steered the club through four games with Cooper Rush under center. The time is now to spend crazy money. (Look at the rival Eagles, who are dripping in depth.)
Coaches and GMs of Giants past
This extends beyond the trade deadline, obviously, but how must Joe Judge, Pat Shurmur and Dave Gettleman be feeling right now? Saquon Barkley has the second-most explosive plays among running backs in the NFL despite a 22% loaded box rate. Daniel Jones is (slightly) above replacement level, and the defense is a formidable 15th in dropback success rate, not to mention, once a game delivering an absolute haymaker of a blitz. Then, Kadarius Toney gets traded away. Toney was taken when the Giants moved back in the 2021 draft. They were one spot ahead of a Cowboys team that took … Micah Parsons.
Colts
A bit of a bummer to see them as sellers at the deadline. As I mentioned in our trade deadline post, while we’re happy to see Nyheim Hines go (we liked him for the Rams), is that really the person you want to get rid of if you’re trying to make it through the remainder of the season with Sam Ehlinger at quarterback? Also, if you’re going to sell, then sell. Can’t imagine there were no takers for Stephon Gilmore, Kenny Moore, Michael Pittman Jr., even Jon Taylor, who would be wise to engage in some sort of holdout before the start of next season (there is one year left on his rookie deal).
Texans
For another year, the Texans miss out on an opportunity to get much-needed draft capital. During the coaching interview process last year, I was told Nick Caserio was letting candidates know this was going to be a three-year bridge. And, at least in glimpses, we are seeing his abilities as an identifier of talent. However, the Texans shouldn’t be clinging on to Brandin Cooks at 1-5-1. They should be, at the very least, leading the league in conditional sixth and seventh-round picks as they churn over the bottom of their roster.
Steve Keim and Kliff Kingsbury
Not only are the Seahawks good, but the 49ers got way, way better. The Rams will awaken at some point, which leaves the Cardinals buried at the bottom of the division, even with DeAndre Hopkins rejoining the lineup. The Cardinals have been so bizarrely, situationally aggressive but stood pat at the deadline with a roster that doesn’t have a ton of flexibility. They didn’t see an advantage in accumulating more capital for the future (given their track record of picks, they could use more lottery tickets), nor did they see the advantage in making a play for someone who could get the offense in a better place.
