Welcome to trade season!
Unlike the NBA and MLB, where franchises shift into ‘buyer’ or ‘seller’ mode as they head toward trade deadline, NFL teams have always struggled with the same sense of self-awareness.
Part of that is due to the league’s parity: teams are often only one or two wins away from getting back into the playoff hunt. One win can be the difference between a contract extension and exiting the building; quick-trigger owners hover over decisions by general managers and coaches. Why would a general manager sign off on a baseball-style asset-stripping if they’ll soon be on their way out the door?
But the number of trades has been steadily increasing in recent seasons as teams look to hoard draft picks and cap space to reboot in the offseason or to get set for a playoff push. Though often those figures can be skewed by a particularly frisky GM, last year’s Christian McCaffrey deal between the Carolina Panthers and San Francisco 49ers may serve as a landmark event.
Contenders or those on the fringes of the playoffs have long felt that bringing a new piece into the fold during the season is too difficult. It’s too hard for an incoming player to pick up a playbook and understand its nuances in time for the postseason. But McCaffrey’s instant impact for the Niners last year – and Von Miller’s impact on the Rams the year before – should inspire the GMs of playoff-caliber teams to be bolder in the trade market before this season’s 31 October deadline. Here are a few things to watch out for.
Come get your edge defenders
If there’s one thing teams are looking for – always and forever – it’s pass-rushers. Exotic blitzes are fun in the regular season. They can put a defensive coordinator on the map. But a quality four-man pass-rush is what puts a team over the top in the playoffs.
The league is full of edge-rushers who could be on the move before November. Chase Young, Brian Burns, Danielle Hunter and Carl Lawson are all players who could make a Miller-like difference to a contender’s pass-rush this postseason.
Of that quartet, Hunter is the most likely to be moved. Minnesota’s path forward is unsure; do they stick or twist with Kirk Cousins this offseason? And if the Vikings reset their timeline, do they give Hunter a contract extension that will pay him superstar money well into his 30s, an age when pass rushers’ production often falls off?
Young is the most intriguing candidate on the market, though. He is finally living up to his promise – Washington picked him No 2 overall in 2020 – after dealing with injuries. His pressure rate sits in the league’s Top 10 (18.2%), but whether the Commanders want to hand him a long-term extension based on a one-year boom is an open question. If they can recoup some value now, they may be inclined to deal him to a contender like the Ravens or Bengals as the Broncos did with Bradley Chubb last year.
The Chiefs’ receiving corps
After dealing away Tyreek Hill last year, the Chiefs entered the Tom Brady-Patriots era of team-building. Rather than paying top-end money for a great receiver, they’d rather look after the pennies and bank on a brilliant quarterback – in KC’s case, Patrick Mahomes – to elevate those around him, allowing them to beef up the roster in other areas.
That tactic has worked, in part. But nearing the midpoint of the year the Chiefs have the weakest starting receiver corps of any contender. The Mahomes-Travis Kelce combination will not be enough if there’s little else to supplement it, and the Chiefs have acknowledged their receiver group needs more juice by bringing Mecole Hardman back from the Jets. Neither Skyy Moore nor Kadarius Toney has caught fire as an every-down option, and Hardman was never a consistent target during his first spell with Kansas City. Looking toward a veteran, safe pair of hands needs to be at the forefront of the team’s mind.
Acquiring DeAndre Hopkins would make sense. Hopkins signed with the Titans this summer after flirting with various contenders during the offseason. The fit in Tennessee has gone as projected: Hopkins is no longer the gamechanger of old and the Titans do not have the supporting cast to maximize his skills at this stage of his career. It could be a different story in Kansas City.
A firesale in Tennessee
Speaking of the Titans, Mike Vrabel won a power struggle between coach and GM last season. Jon Robinson was in favor of tearing the roster down and rebooting; Vrabel wanted to push ahead and squeeze what he could out of Ryan Tannehill, Derrick Henry and a solid defense. Robinson was fired and Vrabel was handed more say in the roster.
But, at 2-4, the Titans are heading nowhere this season. They don’t have the firepower to keep things close in the AFC South or keep up with the rest of their conference more broadly. It’s time to cash in and gather draft assets for the future.
There is still plenty of talent on the Tennessee roster. But without a viable Tannehill replacement in the near or long-term, it will matter for little in a packed conference.
Accepting that the current roster isn’t good enough to win it all this season would allow the Titans to extract some draft capital they can put towards a rebuild. How about moving safety Kevin Byard to Philadelphia? Or defensive end Denico Autry to Seattle? Both players would represent significant upgrades for teams with deep playoff aspirations.
Who wants Jerry Jeudy?
You could argue the Broncos are in the same situation as the Titans. Sean Payton has been able to help Russell Wilson recapture some of his old magic, even if Denver’s season is a shambled in general. But the Broncos are far from being able to compete at the AFC’s top table. Their defense ranks last in the NFL in almost every conceivable category – and the eye test is somehow worse.
Payton will want to reshape the roster in his own image. Thanks to the continuing payments from the Wilson deal in picks and cap room, Denver will have to be aggressive in order to open up some roster flexibility.
Dealing away Jeudy makes sense. The 2020 first-round pick has shown flashes of being a field-tilting receiver, but there’s been little in the way of consistency. A Jeudy to Carolina trade would make sense for both franchises. According to NFL Network, the Panthers are in the market for a receiver as they look to replicate the model around Bryce Young that the Eagles and Dolphins built for Jalen Hurts and Tua Tagovailoa.
Bill Belichick going out with a bang
Is anything stopping Belichick from taking a big swing? Ordinarily, you would throw the Pats into the same bucket as the time-to-reboot-and-start-again Broncos and Titans. But Belichick may be on his way out in New England, and while there are layers of management above Payton and Vrabel, Belichick answers only to Pats owner Robert Kraft.
The Patriots have problems on both sides of the ball. Injuries have hampered what should have been one of the league’s best defenses, while the offense continues to look broken. Whether it’s adding some juice to the receiving room, taking a gamble on an older quarterback or trying to reenforce the offensive line, Belichick needs to do something to try to ignite the Patriots’ in what could be his final season.
