The 2023 NFL schedule is here. Of course, we already knew who each team was playing over the course of 18 weeks this fall/winter. Now we know when.
The league’s scheduling mechanism aims for fairness, but the ebb and flow between weak and strong divisions can derail those plans. The better your team was the season prior the tougher its schedule should be one season later, and while that holds true for the most part it’s not a lock. If you break down each team’s 2023 schedule by how many games their opponents won in 2022, you’ll find the Philadelphia Eagles with this season’s toughest lineup — and the Kansas City Chiefs clocking in at the middle of the pack.
Thus, these rankings. What follows is a 1-32 breakdown of 2023’s schedules from hardest to softest based on 2022 results.
These strengths of schedules, however, don’t account for changes made over the offseason. Anyone who has to face the New York Jets, for example, had a 8-9 team woven into the fabric of their SOS instead of the 2023 version with four-time MVP Aaron Rodgers at the helm. Thus, this is a flawed metric — but a useful one nonetheless to establish a baseline of “wow, who has it worse than the New England Patriots this season?” (the answer: very few teams!)
Let’s look at each team’s strength of schedule and point out which game looms largest on their calendars.
1. Philadelphia Eagles
2023 opponents’ combined 2022 record: 161-123-4 (.566 win percentage)
Toughest game: at Kansas City Chiefs
2. Miami Dolphins
2023 opponents’ combined 2022 record: 158-127-2 (.554)
Toughest game: at Philadelphia Eagles
3. New York Giants
2023 opponents’ combined 2022 record: 157-129-2 (.549)
Toughest game: at Philadelphia Eagles
4. New England Patriots
2023 opponents’ combined 2022 record: 156-128-3 (.549)
Toughest game: at Buffalo Bills
5. Dallas Cowboys
2023 opponents’ combined 2022 record: 156-128-4 (.549)
Toughest game: at Philadelphia Eagles
6. New York Jets
2023 opponents’ combined 2022 record: 155-129-3 (.545)
Toughest game: at Buffalo Bills
7. Buffalo Bills
2023 opponents’ combined 2022 record: 155-131-2 (.542)
Toughest game: at Kansas City Chiefs
8. Washington Commanders
2023 opponents’ combined 2022 record: 153-133-2 (.535)
Toughest game: at Philadelphia Eagles
9. Los Angeles Rams
2023 opponents’ combined 2022 record: 152-133-3 (.533)
Toughest game: at Dallas Cowboys
10. Las Vegas Raiders
2023 opponents’ combined 2022 record:150-136-2 (.524)
Toughest game: at Kansas City Chiefs
11. Arizona Cardinals
2023 opponents’ combined 2022 record: 148-137-3 (.519)
Toughest game: at Philadelphia Eagles
12. Los Angeles Chargers
2023 opponents’ combined 2022 record: 149-139 (.517)
Toughest game: at Kansas City Chiefs
t-13. Denver Broncos
2023 opponents’ combined 2022 record: 148-138-2 (.517)
Toughest game: at Kansas City Chiefs
t-13. Seattle Seahawks
2023 opponents’ combined 2022 record: 148-138-2 (.517)
Toughest game: at Dallas Cowboys
15. San Francisco 49ers
2023 opponents’ combined 2022 record: 147-139-2 (.514)
Toughest game: at Philadelphia Eagles
16. Kansas City Chiefs
2023 opponents’ combined 2022 record: 147-140 (.512)
Toughest game: at Jacksonville Jaguars
17. Cincinnati Bengals
2023 opponents’ combined 2022 record: 146-140-2 (.510)
Toughest game: at Kansas City Chiefs
18. Chicago Bears
2023 opponents’ combined 2022 record: 143-145-1 (.497)
Toughest game: at Kansas City Chiefs
19. Minnesota Vikings
2023 opponents’ combined 2022 record: 143-145 (.497)
Toughest game: at Philadelphia Eagles
20. Detroit Lions
2023 opponents’ combined 2022 record: 143-146 (.495)
Toughest game: at Kansas City Chiefs
21. Baltimore Ravens
2023 opponents’ combined 2022 record: 138-147-2 (.483)
Toughest game: at Cincinnati Bengals
22. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2023 opponents’ combined 2022 record: 138-148-2 (.483)
Toughest game: at Buffalo Bills
23. Jacksonville Jaguars
2023 opponents’ combined 2022 record: 135-148-4 (.477)
Toughest game: at Buffalo Bills
24. Green Bay Packers
2023 opponents’ combined 2022 record: 137-151-1 (.476)
Toughest game: at Detroit Lions
25. Pittsburgh Steelers
2023 opponents’ combined 2022 record: 134-151-2 (.470)
Toughest game: at Cincinnati Bengals
26. Cleveland Browns
2023 opponents’ combined 2022 record: 131-154-2 (.460)
Toughest game: at Cincinnati Bengals
27. Carolina Panthers
2023 opponents’ combined 2022 record: 130-157-2 (.453)
Toughest game: at Jacksonville Jaguars
28. Tennessee Titans
2023 opponents’ combined 2022 record: 127-157-4 (.448)
Toughest game: at Miami Dolphins
29. Indianapolis Colts
2023 opponents’ combined 2022 record: 124-162-2 (.434)
Toughest game: at Cincinnati Bengals
30. Houston Texans
2023 opponents’ combined 2022 record: 123-163-2 (.431)
Toughest game: at Cincinnati Bengals
31. New Orleans Saints
2023 opponents’ combined 2022 record: 122-164-3 (.427)
Toughest game: at Minnesota Vikings
32. Atlanta Falcons
2023 opponents’ combined 2022 record: 119-167-3 (.417)
Toughest game: at Jacksonville Jaguars
