Patrick Mahomes, absurd playground football touchdown pass aside, didn’t have a great performance in Week 14. He threw three interceptions to gave the Denver Broncos a puncher’s chance in a game Kansas City once led 27-0.
Despite this, he rose to No. 1 in the advanced stats quarterback rankings because the former king, Tua Tagovailoa, was absolutely dreadful. Tagovailoa was lost against the Chargers’ modified cover-two defense, completing only 10 of 28 passes in a Sunday Night Football letdown. It was his second straight disappointing game and the Miami Dolphins’ second-straight defeat.
That’s created a two-man race to see who can be 2022’s most efficient quarterback. Mahomes has been the more resilient passer of the two. While he’s on pace for a career-worst 14 interceptions, he also leads the league in passing yards and touchdown passes.
Tagovailoa, conversely, followed up a disappointing Week 13 game with his worst performance of 2022. That’s dropped his completion rate from 69.7 percent to 65.5 and his passer rating from a league-best 115.7 to a merely very good 108.2. He’s going to have to rebound in a big way to push Mahomes or Jalen Hurts for MVP honors, but a stretch like his nine-touchdown, zero-turnover run between Weeks 8 and 10 would put him back in the running.
Those two have risen above the fray, but they aren’t above reproach, especially since late-season fades remain a very real possibility. Who else could challenge for the top spot? Let’s take a look at the numbers.
We know the data is limited — but it does give us a pretty good idea of who has risen to the occasion this fall. Let’s see which quarterbacks are great and who truly stinks through seven weeks. These numbers are from the NFL’s Next Gen Stats model but compiled by the extremely useful RBSDM.com, run by The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin and Sebastian Carl.
Using expected points added (EPA, the value a quarterback adds on any given play compared to the average NFL result) along with completion percentage over expected (CPOE, the percent of his passes that are caught that aren’t expected to be in typical NFL situations) gives us a scatter plot of 33 quarterbacks (minimum 208 plays) that looks like this:
The size of each dot represents the amount of plays they’ve been a part of. A place in the top right means you’re above average in both EPA and CPOE. A place in the bottom left suggests things have gone horribly wrong (i.e. Baker Mayfield).
There are a lot of players taking up the creamy middle ground and some strange outliers, making it tough to separate this year’s average quarterbacks into tiers. Here’s my crack at it, but full details follow in the text below.
1
The upper crust and its new leader
1. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs, 0.181 EPA+CPOE composite
2. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins, 0.170
3. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles, 0.161
See above. Hurts currently leads the NFL MVP odds at -175 following a two week stretch in which he’s either thrown or run for seven touchdowns without a turnover. Mahomes is in second place at +200. Tagovailoa is tied for fourth alongside Joe Burrow at +2000.
2
Borderline greatness (in 2022)
4. Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks, 0.146 EPA+CPOE composite
5. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills, 0.135
6. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals, 0.134
7. Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco 49ers, 0.130
8. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys, 0.124
Garoppolo’s impressive 2022 will look a little less so if Brock Purdy is able to come in and engineer wins in an offense that mostly runs itself. Smith was boosted Sunday by a late garbage time scoring drive to remain in fourth place. Burrow continues to ascend and could join the top tier by the end of the season.
3
A genuinely surprising upper middle class
9. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions, 0.105 EPA+CPOE composite
10. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars, 0.104
11. Jacoby Brissett, Cleveland Browns, 0.101
12. Andy Dalton, New Orleans Saints, 0.093
13. Daniel Jones, New York Giants, 0.092
14. Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans, 0.091
15. Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings, 0.084
16. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens, 0.084
17. Justin Fields, Chicago Bears, 0.083
18. Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders, 0.082
19. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers, 0.078
Welcome back to the top 10, Jared Goff. The former Ram has been resplendent in leading Detroit back into the playoff race and has earned himself a starting job in 2023 — although the location is yet to be determined. Cousins jumped up six spots by putting up big numbers in a loss which, yep, that’s Kirk Cousins. Brissett remains the Browns’ best quarterback, even after two games from Deshaun Watson, who was suspended for the majority of the 2022 season following more than 20 accusations of sexual misconduct and what the NFL described as “predatory behavior.”
4
You can win with these guys, just probably not too much
20. Marcus Mariota, Atlanta Falcons, 0.072 EPA+CPOE composite
21. Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 0.071
22. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers, 0.059
23. Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh Steelers, 0.054
24. Taylor Heinicke, Washington Commanders, 0.053
25. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals, 0.051
Murray’s season appears to be over after leaving Monday night’s game with a knee injury. Thus ends an awful 2022, but he’ll have a chance to redeem himself with what’s likely to be a new head coach next autumn. Mariota has been benched in favor of rookie Desmond Ridder. He won’t have an imposing bar to clear when it comes to proving his worth to the Atlanta offense. This winter could be the first NFL postseason without either Brady or Rodgers since 2008.
5
(the sound of furrowing brows and air being sucked over teeth)
26. Mac Jones, New England Patriots, 0.048 EPA+CPOE composite
27. Matt Ryan, Indianapolis Colts, 0.043
28. Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos, 0.042
29. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams, 0.041
Jones wanted to throw downfield more in Week 14 and instead got a bunch of screen passes thanks, in part, to the injuries that decimated his receiving corps. Wilson finally picked up his game Sunday, then left in the fourth quarter due to a concussion and missed out on the chance to potentially rally back from a 27-0 deficit. Stafford won’t need offseason surgery, per Sean McVay, but there’s no reason for him to make another appearance in what’s been a lost season for the Rams.
6
Your services will no longer be needed after the season ends
30. Carson Wentz, Washington Commanders, 0.007
31. Davis Mills, Houston Texans, 0.006
32. Zach Wilson, New York Jets, -0.005
Wentz is worse than he was as a Colt. Mills was unable to build from his competent rookie season. Wilson is a disaster.
7
Maybe the Panthers were the problem???
33. Baker Mayfield, Los Angeles Rams, -0.024 EPA+CPOE composite
If we limit the sample size to just Week 14 — Mayfield’s Los Angeles debut and the game where he rallied the Rams from a 16-3 deficit in the final four minutes — things look … better. Mayfield’s composite clocks in at 0.036. That’s good for 18th best among 28 quarterbacks; better than Colt McCoy but worse than Tyler Huntley.
Still, a win’s a win and there’s no doubting the former top overall pick’s impact over the final stretch of Thursday night’s game. If that’s a sign of things to come he’s capable of digging himself out of this basement.
