Tua Tagovailoa is undefeated in games he’s started and finished in 2022. He leads the league in passer rating, touchdown rate and yards per attempt.
And when it comes to advanced stats, he sits on a tier by himself above the league’s other quarterbacks.
Granted, this is a small sample size. Tagovailoa has played roughly 150 fewer snaps than fellow MVP candidates like Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen. His 248 pass attempts barely clears the top 20 in the NFL. His numbers are skewed by a hot streak that’s seen him throw for 969 yards, nine touchdowns and zero interceptions in his last three games.
Even so, this has been a statement season from an embattled quarterback. Tagovailoa’s average pass travels 9.0 yards downfield — fifth-furthest in the league — and he’s still managed to up his completion rate to 71 percent — second-best among starters. This isn’t a case of short throws taken long distances to puff up a stats sheet, Garoppolo-style. It’s an honest revelation.
But it’s not all rainbows. In terms of tape, Tagovailoa can’t match the athleticism and downfield touch of peers like Allen or Mahomes, His deep balls still need refinement. His late struggles against the Chicago Bears in Week 9 didn’t show up in a sparkling stat sheet, but did make that game closer than it should have been.
This leaves a very real chance he regresses — not only because of his past performances but because he’s operating at a ludicrous level higher than Aaron Rodgers landed in either of his MVP seasons in 2020 or 2021. But we’re not worried about that right now. We’re only worried about numbers through Week 10.
That means Tua is king.
We know the data is limited — but it does give us a pretty good idea of who has risen to the occasion this fall. Let’s see which quarterbacks are great and who truly stinks through seven weeks. These numbers are from the NFL’s Next Gen Stats model but compiled by the extremely useful RBSDM.com, run by The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin and Sebastian Carl.
Using expected points added (EPA, the value a quarterback adds on any given play compared to the average NFL result) along with completion percentage over expected (CPOE, the percent of his passes that are caught that aren’t expected to be in typical NFL situations) gives us a scatter plot of 39 quarterbacks (minimum 112 plays) that looks like this:
The size of each dot represents the amount of plays they’ve been a part of. A place in the top right means you’re above average in both EPA and CPOE. A place in the bottom left suggests things have gone horribly wrong (i.e. Baker Mayfield).
There are a lot of players taking up the creamy middle ground and some strange outliers, making it tough to separate this year’s average quarterbacks into tiers. Here’s my crack at it, but full details follow in the text below.
1
Still alone up here
1. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins, 0.227 EPA+CPOE composite
See above. Tua is very good, despite the throwing form shown above.
2
Also deserving his own tier
2. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs, 0.186 EPA+CPOE composite
He’s still Patrick Mahomes and still, per Draft Kings, a stark betting favorite to win the 2022 NFL MVP. He’s not quite as devastating as he was in his 2018 breakthrough, but the fact he’s getting this done while elevating a wider cast of supporting players is genuinely impressive.
3
Very legit MVP candidates (though 10 weeks)
3. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills, 0.153 EPA+CPOE composite
4. Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks, 0.149
5. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals, 0.140
6. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles, 0.140
Allen is slumping, Hurts led an uncharacteristically sloppy Eagles offense in Week 10 and Burrow is rolling without Ja’Marr Chase for at least a little while longer. Still, those concerns seem temporary. Smith’s rise, on the other hand, stayed the course despite a disappointing showing in Munich last Sunday.
4
Former Patriots backups (and one guy they could have drafted, but didn't)
7. Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco 49ers, 0.125 EPA+CPOE composite
8. Jacoby Brissett, Cleveland Browns, 0.107
9. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens, 0.103
10. Bailey Zappe, New England Patriots, 0.102
11. Daniel Jones, New York Giants, 0.100
This is where the rankings and metric get hazy, because 80 percent of this tier does its best work while standing back and letting someone else do the heavy lifting. The exception is Jackson, who has been reduced to throwing passes to future XFL stars in 2022.
5
Players capable of rallying a team or devastating it
12. Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 0.089 EPA+CPOE composite
13. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars, 0.087
14. Marcus Mariota, Atlanta Falcons, 0.086
15. Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders, 0.081
16. Andy Dalton, New Orleans Saints, 0.075
17. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys, 0.074
18. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions, 0.071
Mariota made it to this tier because of his legs and because there’s no accurate stat to measure badly overthrowing Kyle Pitts. Prescott is capable of great things but currently a problem for the Cowboys. Carr is having a very Derek Carr season. Being wildly frustrated by that is an appropriate response.
6
I'm genuinely unsure how any of these players is going to finish 2022
19. Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings, 0.066 EPA+CPOE composite
20. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers, 0.065
21. Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans, 0.064
22. Justin Fields, Chicago Bears, 0.063
23. Matt Ryan, Indianapolis Colts, 0.061
24. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers, 0.056
25. Jameis Winston, New Orleans Saints, 0.055
26. Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh Steelers, 0.054
27. Taylor Heinicke, Washington Commanders, 0.052
Cousins overcame early struggles to beat the Bills. Heinicke toppled the previously undefeated Eagles by drawing a game-winning unnecessary roughness penalty. Ryan was benched for Sam Ehlinger, then returned to remind us all how bad Josh McDaniels is as a head coach.
Weird group. Fun, though.
7
We're all very disappointed
28. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals, 0.042 EPA+CPOE composite
29. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams, 0.039
30. Mac Jones, New England Patriots, 0.034
31. Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos, 0.027
Each of these teams entered 2022 with big expectations for their quarterbacks. If the season ended today, only the Patriots would make the playoffs — and even then, juuuuust barely.
8
Just try not to break anything
32. Mitchell Trubisky, Pittsburgh Steelers, 0.016 EPA+CPOE composite
33. Zach Wilson, New York Jets, 0.013
34. Joe Flacco, New York Jets, 0.012
35. Cooper Rush, Dallas Cowboys, 0.010
36. Carson Wentz, Washington Commanders, 0.007
37. Davis Mills, Houston Texans, 0.001
Wilson has the most upward mobility of this tier, as only he and Mills are currently starters. Mills is mostly unoffensive as a quarterback and saddled with a truly depressing group of targets if Brandin Cooks continues to miss time.
9
Panthers quarterbacks
38. PJ Walker, Carolina Panthers, -0.015 EPA+CPOE composite
39. Baker Mayfield, Carolina Panthers, -0.034
Can’t wait until someone else gets hurt and Sam Darnold accrues enough snaps to join this tier.
