The Seattle Seahawks are 6-3 and leading their division behind the strength of a top five quarterback. The Denver Broncos are 3-5 and only have the listless Raiders cushioning them from the bottom of the AFC West thanks to their garbage offense.
This was not the intention when Denver shipped two first round picks and more to the Pacific Northwest for Russell Wilson.
Wilson was supposed to be the redeemer in Colorado, a Peyton Manning-esque savior capable of pushing an elite defense back to contention. Instead, his Broncos are holding on to a thin wisp of playoff hope and the former Seahawk has been, statistically, a bottom 10 quarterback. Seattle, on the other hand, has seen its defense rise to Geno Smith’s level in the midst of a four-game winning streak that has the team atop the NFC West.
Wilson’s slide isn’t an outlier; he’s one of several big name quarterbacks who are having a forgettable start to their 2022. What does the new ruling class of passers look like? Through half the regular season, we’ve got a fairly well-developed picture.
We know the data is limited — but it does give us a pretty good idea of who has risen to the occasion this fall. Let’s see which quarterbacks are great and who truly stinks through seven weeks. These numbers are from the NFL’s Next Gen Stats model but compiled by the extremely useful RBSDM.com, run by The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin and Sebastian Carl.
Using expected points added (EPA, the value a quarterback adds on any given play compared to the average NFL result) along with completion percentage over expected (CPOE, the percent of his passes that are caught that aren’t expected to be in typical NFL situations) gives us a scatter plot of 37 quarterbacks (minimum 112 plays) that looks like this:
The size of each dot represents the amount of plays they’ve been a part of. A place in the top right means you’re above average in both EPA and CPOE. A place in the bottom left suggests things have gone horribly wrong (i.e. Baker Mayfield).
There are a lot of players taking up the creamy middle ground and some strange outliers, making it tough to separate this year’s average quarterbacks into tiers. Here’s my crack at it, but full details follow in the text below.
1
Officially in his own stratosphere
1. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins, 0.219 EPA+CPOE composite
Next Gen Stats didn’t ding Tagovailoa for a closer-than-necessary win in Week 9 or the misthrown deep balls that could have made things more comfortable. Instead, his three touchdowns without an interception — his second straight game hitting that milestone — kept him atop the rankings here as well as in both passer rating and QBR.
2
Extremely good quarterbacks
2. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs, 0.177 EPA+CPOE composite
3. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills, 0.159
4. Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks, 0.151
Smith threw a third quarter pick-six that gave the Arizona Cardinals the lead. Then he responded with back-to-back touchdown drives to keep the Seahawks atop the NFC West. Allen wasn’t as fortunate; his two interceptions ultimately doomed the Bills in an upset loss to the New York Jets.
3
Merely very, very good
5. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals, 0.140 EPA+CPOE composite
6. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles, 0.140
Both are viable MVP candidates engineering devastating deep range passing games. Hurts leads the league’s last undefeated team. Burrow, after a slow start, has the Bengals at 5-2 in their last seven games.
4
OK, I have concerns about this formula
7. Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco 49ers, 0.121 EPA+CPOE composite
8. Jacoby Brissett, Cleveland Browns, 0.112
9. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens, 0.106
10. Bailey Zappe, New England Patriots, 0.102
11. Andy Dalton, New Orleans Saints, 0.098
12. Marcus Mariota, Atlanta Falcons, 0.094
Lamar Jackson belongs here. After that, things get dicey. Would you trust Brissett with the ball trailing by four points with two minutes left? Mariota? Dalton? Nevertheless, they’re all efficient enough to rise above the chaff in a season that’s been quietly brutal for established NFL quarterbacks.
5
The creamy middle of guys you sort of trust (and also Tom Brady)
13. Daniel Jones, New York Giants, 0.087 EPA+CPOE composite
14. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars, 0.085
15. Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders, 0.084
16. Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans, 0.079
17. Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 0.074
18. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers, 0.072
19. Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings, 0.070
You absolutely *can* win playoff games with these quarterbacks. The question is “how many,” even with Brady in the mix. There’s a lot of trust left to be earned with this group of above average QBs.
6
A whooooooole bunch of disappointments (not you, Justin Fields)
20. Jameis Winston, New Orleans Saints, 0.055 EPA+CPOE composite
21. Justin Fields, Chicago Bears, 0.054
22. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions, 0.054
23. Matt Ryan, Indianapolis Colts, 0.048
24. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers, 0.048
25. Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh Steelers, 0.048
26. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals, 0.042
27. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams, 0.039
28. Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos, 0.038
29. Mac Jones, New England Patriots, 0.034
30. Taylor Heinicke, Washington Commanders, 0.030
This is a rough scene. Murray just signed a lucrative contract extension. So did Rodgers. Goff has followed up an optimistic beginning to 2022 with extended stretches of being Jared Goff. Mac Jones is in legitimate risk of being benched for a rookie fourth round pick.
7
Very Bad.
31. Mitchell Trubisky, Pittsburgh Steelers, 0.016 EPA+CPOE composite
32. Zach Wilson, New York Jets, 0.013
33. Joe Flacco, New York Jets, 0.012
34. Cooper Rush, Dallas Cowboys, 0.010
35. Carson Wentz, Washington Commanders, 0.007
36. Davis Mills, Houston Texans, 0.003
The Jets and Cowboys have proven you can win games with anonymous quarterbacking. The Steelers and Texans have not.
8
BAKER MAYFIELD.
37. Baker Mayfield, Carolina Panthers, -0.034 EPA+CPOE composite
PJ Walker’s Week 9 failure (2022 composite: -0.017) led Mayfield to return and play relatively well in garbage time vs. the Bengals. That wasn’t enough to make him anything better than this year’s worst starter, unfortunately.
