Josh Allen, as we all expected, is the most valuable quarterback in the NFL through five games. Geno Smith, as only the most demented — or brilliant? — football minds saw coming, is right on his heels.
Smith’s age-32 breakthrough continued last week in a 268-yard, three touchdown performance on only 25 pass attempts against the New Orleans Saints. This wasn’t a function of quick dump-offs and big runs after the catch — though Jimmy Garoppolo has parlayed that into a top 10 ranking (!). Smith threw four passes at least 25 yards downfield. All four were caught and three were touchdowns.
That keeps him on the upper tier for another week, even if his place at the top has been justifiably usurped by Allen and Patrick Mahomes. How’d everyone else shake out? Let’s turn to advanced stats to figure out who brings the most value behind center.
We know the data is limited — but it does give us a pretty good idea of who has risen to the occasion this fall. Let’s see which quarterbacks are great and who truly stinks through four games in the 2022 NFL season. These numbers are from the NFL’s Next Gen Stats model but compiled by the extremely useful RBSDM.com, run by The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin and Sebastian Carl.
Using expected points added (EPA, the value a quarterback adds on any given play compared to the average NFL result) along with completion percentage over expected (CPOE, the percent of his passes that are caught that aren’t expected to be in typical NFL situations) gives us a scatter plot of 32 quarterbacks (minimum 80 plays) that looks like this:
The size of each dot represents the amount of plays they’ve been a part of. A place in the top right means you’re above average in both EPA and CPOE. A place in the bottom left suggests things have gone horribly wrong (i.e. Baker Mayfield).
There are a lot of players taking up the creamy middle ground, making it tough to separate this year’s average quarterbacks into tiers. Here’s my crack at it, but full details follow in the text below.
1
Four elite QBs, including two guys you expected
1. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills, 0.196 EPA+CPOE composite
2. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs, 0.193
3. Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks, 0.189
4. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins, 0.188
There’s no need to recap Allen and Mahomes, we already know they’re impossible. We talked up Smith above, but …
"Holy catfish! What a perfect throw!"
Raible Call of the Game vs. Saints pic.twitter.com/OYUyKVku4G
— Seattle Seahawks (@Seahawks) October 11, 2022
Tagovailoa’s still up here until he falls off the minimum snap threshold. Let’s hope he’s all the way back before he puts on a helmet again.
2
Very good (until they kinda aren't)
5. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles .0127 EPA+CPOE composite
6. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens, 0.122
7. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers, 0.122
8. Jacoby Brissett, Cleveland Browns, 0.120
9. Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco 49ers, 0.116
Hurts, Jackson and Herbert are all sneaky good MVP bets. Brissett and Garoppolo are not.
Brissett has thrown an interception in the final five minutes of all three of the Browns’ losses this season. Garoppolo’s a top 10 quarterback, but his average completion only travels 5.4 yards downfield, so take that with a pillar of salt.
3
Yes, we've been comparing these two for years, we get it
10. Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders, 0.101 EPA+CPOE composite
11. Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 0.101
Carr is doing Derek Carr things, looking underappreciated and putting in the work while losing. Brady is throwing the ball a ton and using his influence to draw game-saving roughing the passer penalties on complete and utter [expletive deleted].
refs called this roughing the passer on 3rd down and i genuinely do not know what Grady Jarrett could have done differently pic.twitter.com/VX6i0UpJiL
— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) October 9, 2022
4
All sorts of guys you kinda trust
12. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals, 0.089 EPA+CPOE composite
13. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers, 0.089
14. Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans, 0.085
15. Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings, 0.080
16. Daniel Jones, New York Giants, 0.078
17. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars, 0.072
18. Mac Jones, New England Patriots, 0.070
This week’s middle ground runs seven deep — though Mac Jones hasn’t been playing and Bailey Zappe’s 0.125 EPA+CPOE composite would slot him between Hurts and Jackson on the list if he’d played enough stats (lol). Lawrence crashed out of the top 10 with another multiple turnover day. Daniel Jones rose eight spots by beating the Packers in one of his most encouraging performances as a New York Giant.
5
Quarterbacks you don't trust, but could certainly do worse than
19. Marcus Mariota, Atlanta Falcons, 0.064 EPA+CPOE composite
20. Jameis Winston, New Orleans Saints, 0.055
21. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals, 0.051
22. Cooper Rush, Dallas Cowboys, 0.049
23. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions, 0.046
Mariota has been roughly what we expected in 2022. While his numbers are fine, the experience of actually watching him suggests the Desmond Ridder era will be soon upon us. Murray has regressed mightily as a passer after starting 2022 without DeAndre Hopkins and, for a long stretch, Rondale Moore. Andy Dalton’s been roughly twice as efficient as Winston this season (0.111 composite vs. 0.055 in limited snaps).
6
Oh no
24. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams, 0.039 EPA+CPOE composite
25. Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos, 0.033
26. Matt Ryan, Indianapolis Colts, 0.024
Stafford’s been hung out to dry by a bad offensive line. Ryan isn’t making the throws that made him an MVP in Atlanta (six years ago, but still). Wilson is fighting a terrible case of doofus brain.
Russ had K.J. Hamler WIDE OPEN on the final play… pic.twitter.com/ccx4SSqqdR
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) October 7, 2022
7
Yeah, about what we expected
27. Carson Wentz, Washington Commanders, 0.017 EPA+CPOE composite
28. Joe Flacco, New York Jets, 0.012
29. Justin Fields, Chicago Bears, 0.006
30. Mitchell Trubisky, Pittsburgh Steelers, 0.001
31. Davis Mills, Houston Texans, 0.000
Fields looked as good as he’s ever looked against the Vikings and still moved up only two spots. Trubisky will slide off these ranks soon and be replaced by Kenny Pickett, who clocks in with a 0.074 EPA+CPOE composite — good for a top 20 mark but zero wins. Flacco’s spot will be filled by Zach Wilson, who’s at a 0.055 — the exact same number as Jameis Winston.
8
BAKER MAYFIELD
32. Baker Mayfield, Carolina Panthers, -0.043 EPA+CPOE composite
This is almost enough to make PJ Walker seem like an upgrade. Walker’s composite in 2021? -0.011. Good luck, Steve Wilks!
