The New York Giants are 6-1 and have the second-best record in the NFC. All of this has been made possible by their top 10 quarterback, Daniel Jones.
That is an absolutely wild pair of sentences to write and, per the NFL’s advanced stats, a completely true one. Jones has led four fourth quarter comebacks and five game winning drives in seven appearances this season. In Week 7, he erased a 17-13 Jacksonville Jaguars lead with less than six minutes to play with a one-yard touchdown plunge. Minutes later, he led a 61-yard field goal drive that added vital insurance points.
Granted, that hasn’t been a heavy lift through the air — that final drive didn’t feature a single pass. Still, Jones has been his most efficient self despite an offense where his top three healthy, non-tailback targets are Richie James, Darius Slayton and Daniel Bellinger.
So yeah … he has a solid case for that top 10 status. Now let’s figure out who joined him after seven weeks of the 2022 NFL season.
We know the data is limited — but it does give us a pretty good idea of who has risen to the occasion this fall. Let’s see which quarterbacks are great and who truly stinks through seven weeks. These numbers are from the NFL’s Next Gen Stats model but compiled by the extremely useful RBSDM.com, run by The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin and Sebastian Carl.
Using expected points added (EPA, the value a quarterback adds on any given play compared to the average NFL result) along with completion percentage over expected (CPOE, the percent of his passes that are caught that aren’t expected to be in typical NFL situations) gives us a scatter plot of 38 quarterbacks (minimum 64 plays) that looks like this:
The size of each dot represents the amount of plays they’ve been a part of. A place in the top right means you’re above average in both EPA and CPOE. A place in the bottom left suggests things have gone horribly wrong (i.e. Baker Mayfield).
There are a lot of players taking up the creamy middle ground and some strange outliers, making it tough to separate this year’s average quarterbacks into tiers. Here’s my crack at it, but full details follow in the text below.
1
Of course it's those two guys
1. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs, 0.199 EPA+CPOE composite
2. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills, 0.190
Nothing new here. Allen and Mahomes are one and two when it comes to 2022 NFL MVP odds, respectively.
2
Joe Burrow and his typical comps, Geno and Tua
3. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins, 0.160 EPA+CPOE composite
4. Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks, 0.160
5. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals, 0.145
Tagovailoa’s return saw him backslide slightly with a good, not great performance against the Steelers. Smith remains rock solid and Burrow, after throwing for 481 yards in Week 7, appears to have regained the form that made him an AFC champion.
3
A third tier of QBs with almost nothing in common
6. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles, 0.119 EPA+CPOE composite
7. Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders, 0.117
8. Daniel Jones, New York Giants, 0.107
9. Bailey Zappe, New England Patriots, 0.102
10. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens, 0.100
Hurts is the other quarterback with short odds for the MVP award, partially because he’s leading an undefeated team but mostly because he’s very good. Carr’s popularity is once again failing to match his efficiency on the field, but his team is also 2-4 so, tough sell. Zappe’s three turnovers vs. the Bears tanked his stock and helped convince Bill Belichick that Mac Jones is his starter in Week 8. We’ll see if that lasts.
4
The tier with Tom Brady and his former backups
11. Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco 49ers, 0.095 EPA+CPOE composite
12. Marcus Mariota, Atlanta Falcons, 0.090
13. Andy Dalton, New Orleans Saints, 0.089
14. Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 0.089
15. Jacoby Brissett, Cleveland Browns, 0.086
16. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars, 0.084
17. Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans, 0.079
Dalton is the most surprising name on this tier, especially after he doomed the Saints with three first half turnovers in a winnable Week 7 showdown with the Cardinals. Lawrence has suffered through the highs and lows we expected from his rookie season, but it makes sense 10 months of dealing with Urban Meyer would have stunted his growth. Brissett remains a useful option on paper you would in no way, shape or form trust to lead a fourth quarter comeback.
5
A bunch of quarterbacks we did not expect to see this far down the rankings
18. Teddy Bridgewater, Miami Dolphins, 0.074 EPA+CPOE composite
19. Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings, 0.070
20. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers, 0.070
21. Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh Steelers, 0.064
22. Jameis Winston, New Orleans Saints, 0.055
23. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams, 0.052
24. Mac Jones, New England Patriots, 0.051
25. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers, 0.051
Rodgers’ supporting cast isn’t great, but it’s not the sole reason he’s been roughly as impactful as Mac Jones on a per-play basis. Kirk Cousins is piloting a one-loss team through the NFC, but his numbers are down from an impressive but ineffective previous three seasons in Minneapolis. Pickett is completing nearly 69 percent of his passes but has still thrown seven interceptions in roughly three full games which is … kind of impressive?
6
It's officially reasonable to doubt these guys
26. Matt Ryan, Indianapolis Colts, 0.048 EPA+CPOE composite
27. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals, 0.047
28. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions, 0.042
29. Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos, 0.028
Murray had one of his best games of the season in Week 7 thanks to the return of DeAndre Hopkins. He may be trending upward. Ryan has been benched for Sam Ehlinger, so he is decidedly moving in the opposite direction.
7
Bad (but Justin Fields is moving up!)
30. Mitchell Trubisky, Pittsburgh Steelers, 0.016 EPA+CPOE composite
31. Justin Fields, Chicago Bears, 0.016
32. Joe Flacco, New York Jets, 0.012
33. Cooper Rush, Dallas Cowboys, 0.010
34. Davis Mills, Houston Texans, 0.009
35. Carson Wentz, Washington Commanders, 0.007
Fields was brilliant in roasting the Patriots in Week 7 and is one solid performance away from officially passing the quarterback he replaced in Chicago. Mills is occasionally capable of spurts of above-average QB play. He could be rounding into that form after a solid performance against the Raiders last week.
8
Singlehandedly capable of ruining their team's playoff hopes
36. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys, -0.001 EPA+CPOE composite
37. Zach Wilson, New York Jets, -0.004
Wilson’s longest completion in Week 7 went eight yards beyond the line of scrimmage. Prescott was significantly better but is still working back from a truly disgusting Week 1 performance against the Buccaneers.
9
BAKER MAYFIELD
38. Baker Mayfield, Carolina Panthers, -0.042 EPA+CPOE composite
PJ Walker’s composite after two games is 0.026. This is not good, but it’s so much better than Baker.
