The San Francisco 49ers’ Week 6 loss was Tua Tagovailoa’s gain.
The fourth-year quarterback, on pace for career highs of 5,300 passing yards and 40 touchdowns, has regained his place at the top of the quarterback rankings … at least for now. His shiny traditional stats — he ranks first or tied for first in total yardage, touchdown passes and passer rating — also translate to advanced stats. So when Purdy backslid to the worst day of his budding NFL career in rainy Cleveland, Tagovailoa was there to take advantage.
That duo, along with Josh Allen, make up a narrow top tier of quarterbacks through six weeks. The gap between them and the rest of the league’s top passers, however, has gotten smaller in a season where aerial offenses haven’t quite lived up to the NFL’s recent standard. So while Tagovailoa has the edge for now, there’s always the chance Patrick Mahomes (of course) or Jared Goff (whoa) could catch them while building a convincing MVP argument.
Let’s talk about those numbers. Expected points added (EPA) is a concept that’s been around since 1970. It’s effectively a comparison between what an average quarterback could be expected to do on a certain down and what he actually did — and how it increased his team’s chances of scoring. The model we use comes from The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin and his RBSDM.com website, which is both wildly useful AND includes adjusted EPA, which accounts for defensive strength. It considers the impact of penalties and does not negatively impact passers for fumbles after a completion.
The other piece of the puzzle is completion percentage over expected (CPOE), which is pretty much what it sounds like. It’s a comparison of all the completions a quarterback would be expected to make versus the ones he actually did. Like EPA, it can veer into the negatives and higher is better. So if you chart all 33 primary quarterbacks — the ones who played at least 96 snaps in six weeks — you get a chart that looks like this:
Top right hand corner is good. Bottom left corner is bad. Try splitting those passers into tiers and you get an imperfect seven-layer system that looks like this:
These rankings are sorted by a composite of adjusted EPA and CPOE to better understand who has brought the most — and the least — value to their teams across the small sample size. It’s not a full exploration of a player’s value, but it’s a viable starting point. Let’s take a closer look.
1
The same three guys as last week, but in a slightly different order
1. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins: 0.209 EPA+CPOE composite
2. Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers: 0.203
3. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills: 0.194
A three-touchdown day for Tagovailoa, a merely OK performance from Allen and the worst game of Purdy’s pro career vaulted the Miami quarterback into the top spot one-third of the way through 2023. Purdy’s composite dropped from a sterling 0.260 to a merely very good 0.203 thanks to a combination of bad weather, untimely injuries and relentless pressure in Cleveland. Meanwhile, Tagovailoa beat the Panthers so … there may be more shuffling in the immediate future.
2
Patrick Mahomes and Jared Goff, on the same level again
4. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs: 0.162 EPA + CPOE composite
5. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions: 0.151
Mahomes’ ability to climb into the top tier will depend on one of his young wideouts stepping up to provide a viable every down target alongside Travis Kelce. Rashee Rice has looked like that guy in spurts, but he’ll have to be more consistent to push this offense back to great heights. Goff is on pace for a 4,500-yard, 31-touchdown season and a 105-plus passer rating. His revival in Detroit has been magnificent.
3
A dense tier of pretty good quarterbacks (and also Russell Wilson)
6. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers: 0.114 EPA+CPOE composite
7. Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos: 0.108
8. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles: 0.106
9. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys: 0.104
10. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 0.093
11. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens: 0.092
12. Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks: 0.092
Wilson continues to dazzle early and fizzle when it matters; when filtering for garbage time (scenarios in which his Broncos have a better than 80 percent chance of winning or losing) his composite falls to 0.068 — roughly as good as Derek Carr. Prescott is on the rise after standing tall to deliver a pair of fourth quarter scoring drives en route to a road win on Monday night. Mayfield’s position on the list is tenuous after he failed to impress against a smothering Lions defense coming off the Buccaneers’ bye week.
4
Quarterbacks you almost trust
13. Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings: 0.088 EPA+CPOE composite
14. Sam Howell, Washington Commanders: 0.086
15. Jimmy Garoppolo, Las Vegas Raiders: 0.078
16. C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans: 0.070
17. Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints: 0.068
18. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars: 0.062
19. Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns: 0.060
Cousins still has time to engineer a playoff run after a 1-4 start, assuming the Vikings’ recent turnover luck — dropping from “hilariously horrific” to “merely bad” holds up. Stroud is making the Carolina Panthers look stupid for trading a king’s ransom for the right to not draft him. Lawrence continues to move up in these ranks, though a minor leg injury could sap his effectiveness in the near future, a la Joe Burrow’s start to 2023.
5
Veterans and young QBs capable of turning it around
20. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams: 0.056 EPA+CPOE composite
21. Justin Fields, Chicago Bears: 0.042
22. Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans: 0.041
23. Daniel Jones, New York Giants: 0.041
24. Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers: 0.034
25. Gardner Minshew II, Indianapolis Colts: 0.033
The Colts’ playoff hopes likely rest with Minshew given Jim Irsay’s suggestion that rookie Anthony Richardson is out for the rest of the year. He failed to inspire confidence in a 17-point loss to the Jaguars. Fields took a step backward against the Vikings and then left the game altogether thanks to a thumb injury. Jones isn’t the reason why the Giants are so bad, but he’s not good, either.
6
Ah, so that's where Joe Burrow landed
26. Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers: 0.026 EPA+CPOE composite
27. Joshua Dobbs, Arizona Cardinals: 0.024
28. Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts: 0.022
29. Desmond Ridder, Atlanta Falcons: 0.022
30. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals: 0.015
31. Zach Wilson, New York Jets: 0.015
We’ll see if a bye week can get Love back on track after his noticeable fade following a promising start. We likely won’t get to see more from Richardson, who Colts owner Jim Irsay suggests is done for the season. Burrow’s slow march up from a horrific, injury-marred start continued last week, and while he didn’t dazzle against the Seahawks he still managed to get a win and pull the Bengals up to .500 in 2023.
7
The phantom zone
32. Mac Jones, New England Patriots: 0.008 EPA+CPOE composite
33. Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh Steelers: -0.003
Jones looked awful in a loss to the Raiders but actually improved his composite score. That’s how bad he’d been otherwise. Pickett is still trying to prove he can be the Steelers’ answer behind center, a goal that gets further and further from him with each overthrown pass.
